Member Info for Boyobach

.....and continuing during early this morning.

An excellent day at a critical time chartwise for OCDO: 310 and doing better than the FTSE250 (pink)and challenging the negative red trend that it really must break - preferably in the next four trading days: https://invst.ly/185pf1 . Bear in mind that the chart misleadingly shows 25th and 26th as if they are trading days - which they obviously are not.

Yes Chilting: 20% spare is perfectly fine. But my point is that it doesn't include the redundant systems at Hatfield: so the capacity figure was swiftly improved by simply dropping it off the list, despite the fact it still costs the JV £33m pA for doing nothing.

In the HY report it was claimed that Retail was using c.80% of available network capacity since closing Hatfield. Yet they continue to pay c £33m to Technology for that unused plant which, whilst not being regarded as unused capacity by Retail, appears as active revenue earning modules as far as Tech is concerned. It is also the main reason that Retail continues to be in loss. If the Hatfield modules are not redeployable should they not be written off by the JV and declared as a one off impairment? How much longer is this £33m pA charge for idle equipment set to continue? Maybe we'll get some clarity in the 2024 FY Report.

OCDO found some support today but needs to stay above 300 and break through the remaining eighteen month falling red trend in the next few days in order to level off and start a credible recovery from years of investor over-expectation, consequential disappointment and volatility: https://invst.ly/184nl5

Valueplay mentioned under performance relative to the index so it’s worth looking at this because, for the last six months since the end of June when OCDO was at 281 and its lowest point since 2017, OCDO has performed better than the index overall. However, from early October to today, it has been more consistently under performing the index and, if that continues for much longer it will drop back below it, potentially hitting an even lower level than 281.

Valueplay is not doomed to failure but I’m sure he will be giving us an update on how OCDO is doing against the market later today.

Correct Valueplay: I provided a chart to demonstrate that the market fell at the same time as OCDO and, as everyone knows, indices are an average of the constituents and the sectors covered - some will be affected more than others.

So I pointed out that MKS also fell, but by rather more than OCDO, here's how the day went for both of them from last night's closing auction : https://invst.ly/183-50 . I was frankly surprised at how resiliently OCDO performed.

OCDO's 'buy' volume at the closing auction was much stronger than yesterday too (vol at bottom of chart), indicating a market interested in the lower price. A pity for me as I've been anticipating buying lower. However, market falls do present lots of alternatives to consider.

Good points Pokerchips. Unfortunately, like you, I don't think 'tis the season for joyous press releases!

Valueplay: OCDO was down 2.15%, less than MKS' 3.4% today. Different sectors within an indices will not track exactly.

https://invst.ly/183vrf

It's not good timing for OCDO in relation to the trend that it must break to fully level out but the drop was wider market driven and not specific to OCDO. Being pushed below support at 300 by 'external' factors provides an interesting test.

This morning's fall is obviously not good but, so far, in line with the wider market and not specific to OCDO: FTSE100 and 250 shown here v OCDO: https://invst.ly/183e6w

So what is your point?

My point, which might be different to AquarianAge although we obviously have similar thoughts, is that TS could be over-rated and may not have been the best guy to run a disciplined retail business that formed the essential foundation for his tech dream. Wasn't there the odd million invested in some cookery automation system that went nowhere? How useful, strategic and well justified was that use of cash I wonder.

Here is a chart of OCDO v FTSE 250 Mid Cap rebased to mid July, when OCDO was at 340 (the summer base-line effectively): https://invst.ly/182wqu . This gives a good indication of how OCDO has performed against the market for the last six months, which has been fair overall but with anticipated downward pressure recently as it approaches the last of three significant and related long term trends (red) in the last trading days of 2024. I think it could prove to be an interesting time and a potential turn-around point for OCDO. GLA

I agree that sp’s do not move in straight lines, Valueplay, but trends - which you often refer to - mark out their paths and help identify changes of direction. OCDO has set three long term falling trends over recent years (1-3 in this chart https://invst.ly/182004 ) and the past six months have seen two of them broken, with just the shortest of the three remaining. This is a typical pattern as a price levels out - a process which can be traced back two years for OCDO when it first dropped to 380. Since then the market has only dropped a further 20% to today's price despite all the volatile and absurd highs in the meantime. Meanwhile, the ‘bottom’ has become better established as institutional and other shorters have driven the price down and the hype generated volatility surrounding OCDO has progressively been extinguished. It may well have a bit further to go but I doubt it will be much as it challenges the last significant trend and as institutional shorts are gradually unwinding - down to 5.6% yesterday apparently. We'll soon see. ATB.

Comparing OCDO to the FTSE250 MidCap index, there’s nothing gnawing at OCDO’s sp in particular since it dropped to around 303 four weeks ago: https://invst.ly/181w4- . The only event of note was a brief push back up to 330 followed by a pull back. Declared shorts have not changed significantly since they fell below 6% in mid Sept. Income from existing CFCs and from retail is stable or improving, expenditure is under control with development costs substantially paid for (but amortised for tax ). So, although it's not exciting, there are few unknowns and not much to be concerned about as they consolidate the current operations and income across all CFCs. The years of gnawing decline are potentially drawing to a close - we should know for sure in coming weeks.

The price spiked to 320 this morning and hasn't gone below recent lows just above 300, so it's been essentially flat within the 300-320 range so far this month . Apart from a day-trading perspective, it would need to move outside of that range to be significant. The factors you mention haven't changed for some time now and the market seems to have adjusted to them, pending the next set of information.

Correct IMV, Chilting.

The only thing I would add is that market sentiment towards OCDO seems to be steady ... there's not much else to shift that dial as the fundamentals are pretty well known. So, yes, the broader market - influenced by events beyond OCDO's control , will have the usual effect. More significant for me is that the red falling trend - the last remaining of OCDO's very long term ones - may get broken, which would draw a line under OCDO's years of decline. It may drop further but the very long term correction patterns will have been broken and further moves should be based more on current performance. Daily chart as of 10.00 this am: https://invst.ly/181n9-

Correction: the blue is a 180 EMA so the average covers the previous 5 9 hr trading days (1week )

A month long 15min trading chart gives a rather mixed message today: https://invst.ly/1817ar The thick blue line is a 120 MovingAverage (so about a month) and is obviously under pressure but has not been pushed below 312 despite the lows below 303 during the period, supported by some upward push (green). However, the highs are dropping faster (red) forming the usual wedge and ‘decision point’ where one or neither prevails. My guess is ‘neither’ ie continued levelling out rather than a break in either direction.

Ha! that's interesting Stupmy. I obviously think OCDO is on a knife edge in terms of sp, so I’m more conscious of the risk to the downside. I’m a ‘glass half empty’ type, I guess. It's certainly finding some support which is keeping it around 310 as I type - so it may yet push through the red and establish a new long term base-line above 300. That could well hold if results etc continue according to guidance and there are no nasty surprises.

Yes - interesting. Does it give the impression that TS is a guy more focused on technology than on building a profitable business? Is he possibly just a chap playing with an expensive train set and getting paid handsomely for doing so?