Member Info for Boyobach

Treacle: charts are a record of the share movements over a given period with trends highlighted and discussed at the time they occur. OCDO is a volatile and speculative share because the business has never generated a return for its investors and the value of its technology is subject to much debate. Last year saw short term trends driven by many factors, such as unfounded rumours of a takeover bid, settlement of the AS IP dispute, loss of the final JV payment from MKS, closure of Hatfield etc etc etc . The only long lasting trend has been one of decline in shareholder value which goes back to when the sp was about £22:

https://invst.ly/16jppx Charts simply record price movements and active trends indicate what can be expected until they are broken by a change in direction. The market decides if there’ll be a change of direction and trends are just one tool that help to identify when such a change occurs. In the case of OCDO the jury is currently out because yesterday’s spike only punctured the trend briefly, however pressure to bottom out appears to be there at the moment.

HKK asked 'What do you actually do?'

Discuss shares I'm interested in, especially if their market price seems to be speculative, in order to help establish their value from the smarter investors on the board. A few are clueless, however, and ask daft questions without providing anything insightful, I usually filter them and check after a month or two to see how long it took them to notice.

Back to reality well before the close: https://invst.ly/16jeb-

Well, nearly: Mind the gap!

Sell at 400 and back in at 360? OCDO is a trader and shorter’s delight isn't it?

Santa may have come a bit early this year though.

Treacle asked: can you expand on your comments please?

A falling trend line is one that is falling and, last September, that particular line was above 900, so 790 did not come close to breaking It at that time. Here’s a wider view of the same chart including the period 12 months ago that you are referring to: https://invst.ly/16jc7z

It really isn’t rocket science.

Breaking up through a red line is good (provided it stays above it), especially when it's a line that hasn't been broken in three years.

The questions now are whether the levelling out has been solidly established above 340 and when will the gap to 354 get filled. Smart people, like Maximillian, took their profits at around 400 as the statement didn't materially change overall guidance or expectations. Retail are selling more but at lower margins. Technology was not part of today's statement.

Absolutely right Max.

Revenue up, Profits ?

The statement contained one line that summarised the essentials: FY24 Revenue guidance for Ocado Retail increased to low double digit % growth (previously mid-high single digits % growth). All other aspects of Ocado Group guidance are unchanged.

The initial 61p (17%) lift in sp to 411 saw OCDO break the three year falling trend in early trading. The price has since dropped sharply back to around 370, which remains above that long term trend but below closing peaks seen in May (410) and July (446), suggesting a characteristic over-reaction to today’s ‘guidance unchanged’ statement which briefly took it above the 340-375 range that began back in April. This week’s closing price should provide a more considered market response to today’s statement, which was utterly in line with expectations. https://invst.ly/16j68q

You guys don't understand profit taking? Like 30 to 40p, 12% at one point, in 3 days wouldn't interest you? C'mon.

HKK: ‘Total {shorts] down from 8.27% to 6.16% in less than 4 months …

Nice spin Kitty but… OCDO shorts have been over 6% for 5 solid months - so wake me up when OCDO falls below 6% AND isn’t the third most shorted stock. Total misleading trader bullshxt !! Blackrock reduced by 0.07% ? wow - big f’in deal.

So, back to reality, and today OCDO just managed to hold onto 350 and the green trend established over the prior three days: https://invst.ly/16it-4 so tomorrow should provide a good indication of where sentiment will be taking it in the absence of any other news during Q4. Obviously it needs to be strong enough to sail through the looming three year trend that it will encounter over the next couple of weeks. If it does that, then one significant barrier to upward progress will have been removed and maybe (just maybe) institutional shorts might reduce in significant and meaningful amounts.

Fewer red trends tonight as OCDO broke through properly, reducing one of them to history (grey) and a green short term is now on the scene, with a potential longer term partner below: https://invst.ly/16ifwg . The closing auction UT was a disappointment - but a good profit if you were in at 319 and out at 360 (Kitty?). It might be hitting some resistance now, judging by the last hour's trades. Will Thursday underpin the rally? We’ll soon know.

2phevs: 'very similar' - is not the same as.

HKK: not more red lines: they were the same ones. Hey there's a green one developing today, let's see if it's still there at the weekend. Potentially a breakout and the best upward move since July. Positive enough?

Harami isn’t a pattern I’m too impressed with, 2phev, in fact, there are few that interest me much. But if you can see an Harami here then one of us needs new spectacles: https://invst.ly/16hv2s To quote Investopedia:

‘The bullish harami indicator is charted as a long falling candlestick (red) followed by a smaller body rising candlestick (green) that is completely contained within the vertical range of the previous body.’ OK, I guess it may work out sometimes but a) that pattern ain’t there and b)….

What I do see is OCDO struggling to regain 340 and having a go at breaking the trend that has been pushing it down since July, So there’s a 50/50 chance it’ll either break upwards or fail again. It's a pure coin flip, although we should expect some rallying ahead of this week's statement.

I like green better, Kitty, just don't often get a chance to use it with OCDO . The market sets the trends, not me.

I'm not expecting fireworks: in line with guidance with no thrills (either good or bad). Trading statements rarely contain the sort of news that spectacularly turns around a downward drift in sp like the one we are seeing. However, it might serve to level things out for a while: https://invst.ly/16hgx9

It is worth noting, of course, that the initial and proportional drop in OCDO’s Wednesday sp relative to the total NASDAQ fall (down to the 340 line) started about two hours before the US market opened and had already reached nearly 330 (around 50% of its total drop) by that point. So, whilst there may have been a common trigger for both, the fall in the US started much later, when the market there actually opened. Both then reached their respective lows at around the same time. So the US drop was maybe not the trigger.

Here’s a rebased 15minute comparison of the Nasdaq composite (blue) v OCDO

https://invst.ly/16gjcd for this week to date. You decide whether OCDO’s fall on Wednesday was proportionate and due to the US market. Whilst there was a limited pattern match during overlapping hours on the 11th, it’s fairly clear the US market has been moving up whilst OCDO has been moving in the opposite direction and would not have fallen below 340 if it had stayed in step.

When OCDO’s sp levelled out around 340 at the end of August, I expected it to hold near that established support level until the trading report next week whilst shuffling out sideways from beneath the current six week downward red trend in the meantime: https://invst.ly/16fykp . Although it did test that trend without breaking clear of it last week, it seems to have finally lost its grip on 340 today and, whilst OCDO’s sp can pull surprises, it now appears to be falling into retreat during a period when investors with confidence would be expected to hold firm ahead of the trading statement and the final quarter of 24. As Max says, there is probably institutional activity in play, with most of this week's volume occurring, as usual, after the normal market close and also near mid-day. Here's a 15 minute view of this month's moves to date, with volume pillars at the bottom (red tallest = 2.27m): https://invst.ly/16fz7u

Retail is doing well in terms of sales/share of market but many here do not like it when OCDO is analysed as a retail company . Would the tech business be viable without the support of retail and logistics?

I find that trends often come to an end when an sp reaches a fairly solid support or resistance and the result isn't a clear reversal or breakout. Sometimes the trend resumes as a continuation or a parallel that starts after a period of time. OCDO is not looking strong as it approaches the main challenge - ie the three year trend.

Whatever people say, I think the retail side has been propping up the tech, which hasn't achieved the level of success within the warehouse automation sector that had been hoped for when it was first conceived. The covid period appears to have distorted the picture and influenced business strategy and investment, resulting in excess retail capacity and failure of the JV contract to meet what should have been absolute priority targets. I'm reasonably sure OCDO will survive but I'm less confident that it will become a major force in warehouse automation. If the technology was a division within a major tech manufacturing company then I reckon it would do much better.

Yes Gioviano. To be fair it wasn't really a breakout and the gravestone doji on Thursday proved true to its ominous name, with the killer punch delivered by the closing auction for the second day running on Friday.

https://invst.ly/16e0wc

You might anticipate 260 but I couldn’t possibly comment - not that I need to. Let’s see what gets pulled out of the hat on the 19th first though….

Yes waccy - it's a legitimate internal charge and it was openly stated but I was too keen to see the Tech revenue growth to immediately recognise the implications of it at the time, only noticed when checking for something else. See how being too positive can make you overlook the obvious? Ha!