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Having been sharply slapped back from 400 only three weeks ago, OCDO has risen at a more measured pace to potentially retake that level, https://invst.ly/16sb9d , which has presented significant resistance until now. Having opened and closed above it today for the first time in over two months the sp looks well positioned to secure it, with the three month MA also rising fairly steadily over the past three months. If achieved, it would be a significant step in OCDO’s recovery path. It does raise one question, however, because the recently improved sentiment appears to be stimulated more by JV Retail performance achieved at low margins rather than by Tech progress in global warehousing, about which there has been relatively little news. Will this be sufficient to drive the sp much higher, assuming that the FY results look set to be broadly within HY guidance, or is the sp still largely speculative?

Cheers Max, thanks for that - I've since realised that pet food is in a new section called the Isle of Dogs.

Worth clarifying that it's a 'founded by women aisle' :

The Buy Women Built aisle is thought to be the first of its kind offered by a major UK supermarket, and offers more than 1,000 products from 130 brands across food and drinks, health and beauty, home care and cleaning and children’s ranges.

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/ocado-launches-aisle-stocked-exclusively-with-femalefounded-brands-b1186323.html

Increasing market share is expensive unless you have a USP. Properly targeted it may be a good tactic but it does have a hint of overkill/desperation about it

Three relevant links re UNFI, Symbotic and OCDO historic and more recent relationships/comparisons:

https://ir.unfi.com/news/press-release-details/2022/UNFI-and-Symbotic-Announce-Agreement-to-Implement-Industry-Leading-Warehouse-Automation-Systems/default.aspx

https://www.silicon.co.uk/press-release/united-natural-foods-expands-supply-chain-evolution-with-implementation-of-a-i-powered-warehouse-automation-system-in-its-new-manchester-distribution-center

https://www.dhakatribune.com/financial-markets/321351/symbotic-nasdaq-sym-is-beating-ocado-into-a

SP’s don’t rise or fall in straight lines unless there’s a reason or market expectation. Despite its volatility over the summer and the recent uptrend, OCDO may still be levelling out near its 90 day moving average of 360 (blue) https://invst.ly/16p9ht

Have the fundamentals or prospects changed significantly since mid June as far as the market is concerned?

My comments in the ‘good week’ thread were specific to the chart for last week, which was undeniably positive and therefore could not be ignored. However, my broader view is that the fundamentals have not changed and I mentioned some specific ‘ifs’ that I think are necessary for future continuation of a meaningful recovery. I also note that, despite some early signs, the likes of Blackrock haven’t unwound their short positions much further yet.

As I commented to Stupmy earlier in the week when it was about 360, I regarded OCDO as overpriced. So I’m not interested in reinvesting ‘long’ at the moment and my attention has already moved elsewhere.

A good week indeed, after last week’s antics. A more consistent and hopefully sustainable positive trend has emerged this week: https://invst.ly/16n2m- , breaking through the three year downtrend at last and potentially better placed to attack the resistance at 450 if the wind keeps blowing in the right direction. Will 2024 ultimately deliver on expectations? The final quarter could see the start of a meaningful recovery in sp if new CFC’s appear on the horizon whilst retail continues to strengthen.

Does OCDO feel like it's a future Amazon to you Stupmy?

I confess it doesn't to me, especially given the last seven months. I was way more positive back in Feb before the FY results, when I was looking for a price around £4, near the gap at 386. Now that price looks expensive to me, despite shorts closing and the current upward move which does look as if it might push it through to October above 350: https://invst.ly/16m3j2 .

So it's now overpriced for me and, unless that picture changes, I'm dropping out of the conversation for now. ATB

Interesting mix of two threads there guys: ‘Institutional investors key’ on the MIRI chat and this one…..

Yes, this would help OCDO continue to level out above 340 and move sideways from under the three year falling trend: https://invst.ly/16lict . It might at least mark out a firmer baseline from which to start a more meaningful recovery. Today’s move was a step in the right direction to achieving that.

Amazon founded in 1994...... just six years before OCDO then ? (April 2000 apparently) .

Yes - Blackrock is a good indicator. It sends a message that the lows may have been tested sufficiently.

Despite the volatility, It's been the most level 6 months overall in years for OCDO. It just needs to stay the right of 340 till the middle of next week to establish a stronger 'look': https://invst.ly/16k-l2

Well, VP, I must agree with your points re overcapacity and 'growth' in customers achieved through slashing prices. I'm mindful of the redundant kit and associated internal cost - born by Retail - at Hatfield (£30m pa I recall - but I didn't recheck that figure whilst typing). I'm not a shorter and, in any case, I would not be as convinced as you are regarding a short position currently although the downside risk is palpable. However , I've become less convinced about future prospects and there do seem to have been some strategic weaknesses and missteps over the past six years, so my confidence in the leadership isn't especially strong and the upside doesn't look great against the down. Unless something quite unexpected occurs, I envisage a very long haul here for shareholders. It has been a typical 'tech-boom' stock but that chapter is now history and it looks like quite a slog from here to becoming a steady investment that delivers a reliable return. I'll watch it but, for now, not interested in getting back in. ATB

I do see this as a decision level as far as the sp is concerned: 340 has been a fairly consistent baseline for nearly six months now, with a couple of volatile breaks in either direction due to temporary reactions to news. So, providing it is not pushed down by the three year trend that will squeeze it over the next fortnight, I expect OCDO to remain broadly in the 330-375 range for the remainder of 2024, with volatility swinging it either way at times. This volatility is largely because investors here take a polarised approach and are swayed more by news, rumour and expectations than by the long term fundamentals, which basically point to steady Retail growth, modest long term tech growth and continuing but slow progress towards reducing debt and achieving satisfactory investor returns.

Whilst last week provided a purely Retail statement, the implication for the Tech side is that, if the Tech is as good as many believe it to be, then retail growth should not be at the expense of margins. OCDO should be able to offer attractive prices to customers because the Tech improves cost efficiency. If I understand him correctly, Valueplay believes the current Retail growth has primarily been achieved through low pricing and squeezed margins: so is the tech really delivering for OCDO? And , if it isn’t, why should others adopt it? In this sense, OCDO’s retail results are indicators of the future success and viability of the technology.

An appropriately named thread for this end-of-week picture: https://invst.ly/16jynt

The next couple of weeks look set to be a decider as far as holding 340 is concerned, So GLA

If you can spot an active upward trend I've missed then don’t hesitate to give me two dates on the line so I can locate it and make a correction if necessary. Yesterday's spike didn't qualify as a break=out for obvious reasons, so the red trend is still intact.

Trends give me definite markers/indicators, Stupmy, patterns are way more vague and open to interpretation and often only look good after the event. OCDO has proven to be an investment basket case which might flourish in the right circumstances but until then needs close monitoring and management to avoid loss and make it pay. Some investors have done very well out of it but others have paid a heavy price for investing their cash in hope and hype instead of looking at the fundamentals and using balanced judgement and trading skills. There's no crystal ball with any investment, least of all OCDO.

But not by much! Excellent reading of the runes, Sangi.

'Share price is in a uptrend...'

Two lows does not an uptrend make, Bushy : three minimum. And to avoid any doubt, I'm looking at the daily chart where there's a potential uptrend but yesterday's rejection of a breakout cast considerable doubt upon it. I'll post it at the end of today.

Stupmy: Ironically I'm getting less tempted because yesterday's market reaction to the trading statement was pretty ludicrous and it is clear that the market's assessment of OCDO's value has been wrong for much of the time since it was floated. I have traded it but it requires too much attention and I currently think it is overpriced. My target is now below £3, although 340 has become quite well established since the FY23 results. In the meantime there are other more stable and attractive ones out there. ATB