Member Info for Boyobach

Yes cureboy, when an sp is levelling out then it's worth watching to see which way it's likely to go. With support at nominal 380 it's not clear how the next few days will go. Last night's UT didn't help.

'there is a clear up trend on you chart.'

Nope. There's a potential one.

Let's see yours and then we can discuss.

Long, short or medium , a trend is a trend, irrespective of what causes it.

The July upward trend is dead - it got broken when it met the three year downward trend. We're waiting for a new one to be established.

OCDO seems to have found support at 380: walking out sideways from the recent downward trend (orange) and levelling out: https://invst.ly/15xpec

As of yesterday’s figures published by shorttracker, short interest has fallen to 6.18%. However, Blackrock don’t appear to have reduced their short position for three weeks. remaining at 1.96% short, not far below their maximum of 2.04%, having been 1.45% at the end of May when total short interest in OCDO reached a maximum of 8.27% at a similar sp to yesterday’s close. So their position - more short today than when total shorts reached a peak near today’s sp - suggests that they take a similar view to Valueplay (DYOR to verify).

In the past I have queried some of Valueplay’s comments and, whilst he hasn’t always provided a convincing response, his general position is mostly supported by some reputable analysts and on-line tools such as Investing.com/pro which unsurprisingly places OCDO as fundamentally risky and volatile. Consequently the sp is currently not rated as ‘cheap’ or ‘a bargain’ on that platform, none of which should come as a surprise to LT investors here.

However you choose to frame it, OCDO has today continued to retrace and the sp is back in the 340-390 range it occupied through most of Q2. https://invst.ly/15woy8 .

If today’s market wide drop continues, there will soon be more alternative investment opportunities for OCDO to compete with. For me, the attraction of OCDO is consequently becoming less compelling: my target re-entry point is getting lower by the day, and I’ve already started to direct my cash into more solid and predictable income generating stocks .

Edtheeeuph:: Boyo... Incorrect! Ocado power In-store Fulfillment for online shopping…..

Point taken Ed and thanks for the clarification as it isn’t entirely as straightforward as I implied. However It doesn’t cover OCDO Retail who say on the website:

‘we've run Click & Collect trials in the past but they don't really work for us given we don't have bricks and mortar shops.’

In terms of partners, you are correct in those cases where they process online orders without using instore staff to deal with click and collect fulfilment. I guess in those situations it would depend on maximising local resource and stock efficiency.

It's worth remembering that, as the article says, 'Online sales can be fulfilled via any channel, including.....click and collect' OCDO don't feature in that significant bit of the online market, which many people find convenient for a variety of reasons.

If there was a new deal about to be signed then that would be a better justification for raising/extending debt than, basically, nothing.

If anything, doesn't it signal that there isn’t an imminent project?

10.5% yield does qualify as a junk bond doesn't it? (just asking for a friend who also can't believe that they might have timed this week's bond issue to make the most of July's 50% rally in sp ).

Smoke and mirrors.

An astute observation by someone earlier in the thread: You generally need sellers in order for the price to go down....

You do, of course, also need buyers to make the price go up.

It's something called 'the market' I gather. More of one than the other can apparently tip the price and produce a trend over a period of time.

Have OCDO's improved results and debt refresh been enough to convince the market that it's worth double what its old fans (the last bulls standing) at Bernstein reckoned just seventeen days ago (250)? Have Morgan Stanley (215) had a rethink yet? Until a consensus of analysts give it some support I think it could be a tough one to shift above 450.

Pullbacks do happen and the timing of the Bond RNS did come at a natural point of challenge for the sp, which was already easing back on Monday: https://invst.ly/15utg3 .

OCDO’s fundamentals are improving but whether by enough to push the price much further than 450 will be the subject of the usual squabbles and debate here. The immediate question is how far it might fall back. It hasn’t found much support at 390/400 in the recent past but this time around it may offer enough of a margin to tempt those who took profits at near 450. If not, then it may drift back to the less frothy price levels seen through much of Q2. It continues to be a trader's toy and I wish I had the time to devote to that aspect of it.

Yes Qantas - I like Patrick Boyle's videos.

Gioviano: Re your gap query: There was a gap on the Investing.com charts at one point because the relevant tails of the candles were missing. However the currently published chart now looks like this: https://invst.ly/15u04c .

19th was a Friday, 22nd was a Monday (no trades on the 21st)

19th close was 378 but it was a down day which opened at 390.5 and had a high of 403.6 - so there's no gap between that day's trading range and the 22nd, which had a low of 392.99 . I hope that explains

I'm assuming that the latest Investing.com charts are correct and that their earlier data (and the gap it indicated) was wrong.

Looks like July’s trend (green) has run out of steam and the three year (red) has prevailed yet again -but for how much longer? https://invst.ly/15tu6x Is OCDO set for a retrace, another attack or a simple levelling out at around 400? The gap to 432 is there for the taking.

Well the ‘gap issue’ has been sorted, it appears.

Firstly the chart on Investing.com is now different and does not show the gap between 19th and 22nd July (circled): https://invst.ly/15tbt3 and, more encouragingly, today’s drop has left a gap upwards to 432.

HKK: The current daily trend remains upward (green) in case you hadn't noticed. Even this morning's drop hasn't punctured it at the time of writing. There is, however, a gap down to 390 looking to be filled. https://invst.ly/15stz7

The debt position was going to need to be renewed at some point and this would ordinarily be a routine and neutral process that has marginal, if any, effect on an sp. Any serious investor in OCDO should be anticipating it and be reassured to see the task completed. From a chart perspective, given the characteristically twitchy nature of OCDO, the timing is not ideal. Following a pull-back day, the sp is currently hovering at the coincidence of both a significant downward trend and an entirely separate resistance level: https://invst.ly/15sojw . So the usual uncertainties will probably be in play.

Yes indeed Waccy. A strong continuation of the recent trend placed OCDO just above the three year falling trend at the close: https://invst.ly/15rqm5 . It’s not yet a break-out but a very promising move providing it does not fall into the familiar pattern that developed last time (circled). Volume was about average and there were no changes in short positions disclosed by ShortTracker on Friday.

July has seen quite a spectacular run given recent negative analyst comments and the drop triggered mainly by the Sobeys news in June - which did not affect guidance. The extra boost supplied by this week’s RNS re Krogers, kicked the price back up on Monday as the upward momentum started to fade. Will that be enough to sustain the upward drive?

410 was held today - as I suggested it might be. It’s about 20p above the green rally trend as the sp finds some useful support above 400: https://invst.ly/15qr4k

Providing it remains above 410 through the second half of August then it’ll be a significant step in the recovery from three years of decline, which will be marked when it breaks the upper red trend in the chart.

If it rises solidly above 432 in the meantime it will be a bonus: closing above 432 by Aug 1st would be a particularly positive move.

Despite its recent market performance, OCDO remains in the top three of the most shorted list on ShortTracker. The shorting funds (which have presumably re-stocked at much lower levels but continue to trade it) are obviously placing more importance on the level of debt than the wider market, which appears to anticipate significant near term growth in capital value. It would be reassuring to see the shorts closing out and reducing the declared % short to nearer 3% -a similar level to Sainsbury, incidentally.