Member Info for Boyobach

All the best Phoenixy, a prudent if painful move given the obvious fragility and question marks here.

Yes - 15' (it says at the top)

I'm not much interested in day trading -apart from optimising the price when I decide to buy or sell , which I'm certainly not doing at present.

So absolute accuracy wasn't my purpose - the trend lines on that chart were swiftly done to show the similarity of movement over a couple of days in comparison with the previous support (I agree that the wicks are more relevant in a 15' chart). It was sufficient to show that this morning saw a break which could signal a firmer/longer support than I was suggesting earlier. However, despite that, I still think 240 (or even 220) is likely unless some good news breaks. The LT uncertainty is one reason I'm not holding at present.

Sorry - duff link due to full stop. Try this one: https://invst.ly/15dogw

Between unpredictable news events, sp moves are mainly governed by sentiment (supply/demand balance) and changes in that are usually easy to spot. This morning’s price action showed an interesting shift but I think it’s too early to say whether it will prove significant and delay or even halt the current decline in sp: https://invst.ly/15dogw.

How many days do you think the support will hold?

340 lasted a couple of months, 310 lasted a couple of days: https://invst.ly/15dmvs

I'll be surprised if 280 sees the weekend. 240 (maybe 260) looks like the next step to me

Sobey’s news is due to the slower than anticipated growth of grocery e-commerce than with any issues with OCDO’s CFC technology. This is how it has been reported locally :

‘Grocery company Empire Co. Ltd. is pausing the opening of a fourth customer fulfilment centre in Vancouver, citing a smaller e-commerce market for groceries in Canada than the company anticipated when it launched its Voilà online delivery platform in 2020.’

https://www.biv.com/news/retail-manufacturing/sobeys-parent-empire-pausing-warehouse-plans-in-vancouver-amid-e-commerce-woes-9110049

Much the same will apply to Kroger, of course.

How many more days do you give it msuk? https://invst.ly/15da1p

Like they did at 290? https://invst.ly/15d240

Smart move SttB: Like me, you are already at least 10p per share better off than you were and can re-assess if/when the price steadies and decide whether it's still interesting or whether you want to move on to something else. The price does look likely to continue downwards and, whatever your views on OCDO, it's better to be out during a drop.

‘Really sad to see this getting so battered… ‘

There’s no room for emotion when investing - stay focussed and alert to your investment.

On which point, I would draw attention to today’s 15’ chart https://invst.ly/15cqq6 and make three points:

1) The sp has continued downwards, because Tuesday’s second punch from MS put an end to any recovery from the fairly minor Sobey’s news (upon which I exited as the next phase was very likely to be downwards, whether justified or not)

2) Tonight’s UT was the day’s low, yet charts like Investing.com mark the volume as ‘green’ (ie ‘buys’) even though the price fell sharply after the market closed. This is a quirk of the algorithms used to assign buy/sell indications to trades even though, as we know, the UT is a matched set of transactions.

3) The knife is still falling, here’s the daily chart: https://invst.ly/15cri- : 280 last showed support in 2017, along with 240 and, to a lesser extent, 260.

Which ones have loaned shares out to hedge funds?

Down but not extinct after the sucker punch delivered by Morgan Hardy & Stan Laurel today. But if your rule is not to lose money then you must have limits and I was out at 300, pending a trading opportunity or yet another bottom being established.

Interesting to see that Proactive Insiders changed their tune to a more funerial chord - no mention of trusty Deutsche Bank today. They also reported that ‘MS said the downgrade was based on Sobeys, the Canadian supermarket chain, axing its partnership with [OCDO]….’ Is that right? Not quite how the RNS framed it, as I recall.

Anyway - investing is not about pushing against the market when it’s clearly against you, there are no profits for Canute’s when the market waves are flowing against them. https://invst.ly/15c1aj The charts have passed through a few lows to get to the latest ledge and the precipice in historic terms was always there below 340. If you go back exactly eight years it’s easy to see where MS got their 215 target from: https://invst.ly/15c17r and there’s really not much of substance in between other than the usual round numbers. Time to sit back and let the shorts do their work for us.

Yes - that information has appeared here but hasn't yet on the site many people use ( https://shorttracker.co.uk/ ) .

Blackrock had reduced from 1.45 to 1.37 on the 18th but do appear to have increased twice since then. having waited for a couple of months above 340 with little to show.

It's undeniably a bad sign - and you only have to look at PFC (the most shorted) to see the kind of company that OCDO is mixing with. Any stock that falls by a factor of 10 has questions hanging over it. Mind you, PFC 's drop has been more like 100:1 from its £17 heyday. Plenty of scope for OCDO unless they start to deliver more than blue sky thinking.

First thing on Mondays in the market usually reflects the results of weekend deliberations - especially after news causes market volatility late in the week . So no surprise to see an initial twist (downwards in this case) but the market eventually turned towards the same tight range as Thursday and Friday's closing prices around 311. I’m inclined to think that there’s a tad more upward pressure than down at the moment, and the 15’ trading EMA reads that way too. Wishful thinking perhaps but nothing much has changed since Thursday’s close: https://invst.ly/15bdkk . (15’ view).

Here’s the daily chart: https://invst.ly/15bdoc

Where have the "it can only go up" posters gone? - possibly the same place that all the 'it can only go down' guys went when it hit 410 last month.

Welcome to the casino that is OCDO.

I've taken profits at various times, Rogen, but the average cost of my two remaining tranches is 330. I wasn't paying attention to the sp on Thursday and missed the best of the second dip (I don't ordinarily go for the first in any case).

Given the steady price near 355 for a couple of months, I was careful to keep my 'long' exposure close to the bottom (335) and not much above 340.

Doesn't require a subscription and - as commented in another thread - It's not worth reading

It basically repeats the RNS and adds this: Guidance for 2024 remained unchanged and so does Deutsche Bank’s target of 610p.

It's not clear that DB have reaffirmed their target - it could simply be that it hasn't been changed yet.

2024 Ocado target is set from a leading bank....

It may well be the case that Deutsche Bank’s target of 610p hasn't changed yet. But is that simply because they haven't had time to analyse and react? I can't find anything that shows an update or confirmation from the bank regarding OCDO in the last week. The rest of the PI article merely repeats lines from the RNS with zero additional journalistic input, so it's not convincingly reassuring as far as I'm concerned - let's see what Exane say after the HY results.

Ocado group has never made a net profit: As discussed many times, according to the FY statement, the net losses are largely made up of amortisation, ie cash that has been spent in previous years on long-term investment in software development etc. which is then spread and offset against tax over a period of years for tax efficiency.

The CEO has done very well personally: Major Shareholders have had plenty of opportunity to vote against his bonus awards but have chosen not to. PI's have a small voice in these matters - we vote by either holding or getting out.

A quick look at the market reaction to Thursday’s news shows a typical overshoot, which went below 292, followed by reducing correction cycles narrowing towards 311, https://invst.ly/15ana5 .

It supports my view that the medium term hit on the sp could be limited to a one-off 40p. However, having broken below the 340 support line that had held against pressure for a couple of months, it has exposed weakness which will encourage shorts. OCDO is speculative and will consequently remain overly sensitive to news, rumour and supposition.

Phoenixy asks ‘What other bad news can come out of TIm and his team? ‘ But this news did not come from OCDO - it came from a client. It’s important to recognise that OCDO sells its product to retailers who operate in a tough and dynamic market and must make key strategic decisions based on a variety of factors. The thinking of Kroger, Sowbeys and others - including the OCDO JV are not driven exclusively by the performance of OCDO’s technology. On-Line grocery retailing has fallen off in the post-pandemic period and been subject to inflation - so long-term plans for CFC’s have naturally been affected. The pauses do not appear to be due to shortcomings in the robotic technology. Investing in OCDO is about more than just the technology - it's influenced by local, global and societal trends and events.

The timing of yesterday’s news from Sobeys was unfortunate to say the least: https://invst.ly/15a4he

OCDO’s sp had been progressing horizontally for a couple of months and seemed set to continue through the negative trends that have driven it down. However, unless there is a swift recovery, yesterday’s move may have shifted that horizontal path down by around 40p, delaying prospects of breaking through the reds and putting even more pressure on the HY statement in three weeks to deliver some tangible positivity.