Member Info for Boyobach

If you look at the detail behind that TiPranks list:

It does not include Bernstein’s re-rating and it shows the lowest as 229p, which is higher than Morgan Stanley’s latest 215 - so it is out of date at best and way out at worst.

I didn't have to try too hard JF. I used to hold BT at the time: he was a disaster there but does have some skills/connections that might benefit OCDO. His income from OCDO is a pittance compared to Tim: how many days of his attention will it buy?

I'm not short, not long and not trading until I see what happens after tomorrow. I shifted my proceeds from OCDO into BP today (at least there's a divi there) so, if I return, it'll be from scratch.

Waccy: 'But the biggest shareholders in Ocado all voted for his pay package. This suggests confidence in Steiner'

Or, maybe, they don't have much choice. Has the company's business strategy been as impressive as its technology? I would say not but who would take on the role of turning it around? Steiner is sitting pretty - he's not been burned like many shareholders and could walk away if they don't keep him on board. He still has a lot to prove but that only keeps him in the game at a price.

Some pullback from the rapid rise to 380 was on the cards and Bernstein provided a nudge. It’s still a more optimistic target than Morgan Stanley’s 215p but "having been one of the last bulls standing". as Sharecast put it, it can’t be entirely overlooked.

https://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/bernstein-downgrades-ocado-to-underperform-slashes-price-target--17080272.html

Yes, Gavin Patterson’s position was announced in an RNS two months ago. He gained a mixed reputation at BT (‘The marketing man whose charm ran out at BT’ as The Independent put it). But he’s a busy guy in a multiplicity of board type positions- so I don’t know how much time he’ll actually devote to OCDO for his annual fee of £82,691 plus £8,420 for membership of the Remuneration Committee. He was a Director of Tappit Technologies (UK) Ltd at the time it went into administration in 2023.

" the price went up quickly beyond a price you were willing to pay. Did you not see that coming from your constant chart analysis?

HA!- so there are no uncertainties with OCDO are there? The price went up whilst I was away. You can’t steer a car when your hand isn’t on the wheel and your eye isn’t on the road. I happen to think the price rose too fast and is a bit high currently - I would probably have taken profits at 380 had I bought back around 330. So, either way, I would now have been looking at the next buy point once the HY results remove some of the uncertainties. At least I do say whether I’m in or out and the reasons, whereas most prefer to stay silent, especially on what they really expect from the company and the HY statement.

The question for me now is whether the HY results will match market expectations as expressed by the sp. Today saw a natural pause at the 380 resistance with 410 the next target - will it continue up or pull back from here? Given all the news that has emerged since the 5th April (when the sp fell to today’s level) I want to see if the HY statement contains sufficient news to justify the reversal that we’ve seen so far this month. Charts don’t provide all the answers and they don’t replace common sense. Most critics don’t appear to know what they are or how to use them: like the guy who thinks the three year OCDO falling trend is a prediction when it’s actually a line that will give a significant positive indication when the sp breaks through by crossing it. Duh!

I did have to chuckle at Jtrade1’s comment: ‘I don't see how charts are of any use for long term investing.’

It strikes me that any LT investor who has put cash into OCDO during the last couple of years without being aware of the general price direction and how it has moved historically is utterly bonkers: https://invst.ly/15jxxr A chart is just a graph of price over time that is easy to read. I wonder if they would drive a car at night without headlights and a rear view mirror..

The daily charts have been increasingly positive about OCDO since 2nd July, crossing a key negative trend on the 8th, with the ever-late but cautious EMA crossing into ‘buy’ a day later at about 324. The fact that I have not re-bought OCDO is simply because I was otherwise occupied and did not have access to the data or to trading for a number of days. However, once my upper price point of 330 was passed I’ve decided to see how the HY results go. Many are influenced by FOMO but the fact is that the price has risen rapidly above the level that I’m prepared to pay prior to the HY results. As PI_Winner says, there are other factors to consider. For me, charts are a useful indicator but you can't ignore fundamentals and OCDO is not an LT investment decision to be taken lightly during a volatile run, as many have found to their cost.

Where have the charts been misleading PI Winner? They look pretty consistent to me: https://invst.ly/15jjrk

Volume ticked up today, too which tends to underpin the bull run. It does seem likely that some shorts will be closing.

At this point I’ve nothing to gain or lose, justfencing. The volatility can be good for trading but needs a watchful eye - which I haven’t had enough time to commit to it recently. It has recovered to the relatively stable 340-365 range remarkably quickly, which should make it easier to gauge the longer term market reaction to next week’s results .

On balance, those results should be relatively good with continuing improvement in the JV performance and revenues. However, net cash outflow with no immediate prospect of profit/dividend will, I think, inevitably dampen the mood. Market reactions to Sobeys news and the hasty MS Bank re-rating demonstrated vulnerability in the sp which does not currently appeal to me as a longer-term hold - so I’m inclined to see what happens after next week’s statement and possibly re-enter when the new low gets established and after any initial enthusiasm has settled down.

The ever-fickle herd instinct appears to be strong around OCDO. It’s now back into the April-May price range that it occupied before the Sobeys news broke and the MS Bank downgrade. No massive change in shorts so far, however, but the positive news concerning Aeon on Monday has kept the recent fire and recovery going . The rise seems to be sentiment driven and, to that extent, speculative rather than based on fundamentals: which haven’t really changed much since the last guidance, so much should logically depend on whether the HY results provide the kind of substance and support that recent buyers expect to see: https://invst.ly/15ixd7 .

An encouraging day for OCDO, which has just completed a fourth day of accelerating gain since Monday despite some increase in short interest during the week:

https://invst.ly/15gwu4 (blue trend), with most of today’s jump occurring in the first hour. If it holds, then the loss due to Morgan Stanley’s re-rating plus half the Sobey’s impact will have been nullified. If the price breaks through red next week (it'll be around 330 on Monday) , rather than pulling back, the sp stand a good chance of regaining 340 and typical levels held for the two months prior to the Sobeys story in the run up to the HY results. A couple of 'ifs' there which, predictably, will concern me a bit more than some others here. I doubt that Valueplay will be too concerned either, because nothing fundamental has changed in the last week as far as I'm aware.

Let me address a few points made here whilst the sp muddles along in decline at a six and a half year low: https://invst.ly/15g5tb

1)Boyobach won't like this [positive] post. Too positive. Doesn't suit his agenda:

If OCDO turns the corner, delivers sustainable performance and begins to realise decades old prospects then it will suit my agenda. Anything less is just meaningless words: investment is about measurable progress or results (faith is just another word for trust in the unknown)

2)Technology - have they got new business acquired - not long to wait, we will find out 16th July:

If they had acquired significant new business we would already know (or they are clueless about PR/Comms).

3)M&S ‘not unhappy’ with JV:

A lame endorsement after five years but the best comment they've achieved so far from this established retailer.

4) Change in government will bring stability and investment to the market.

The honeymoon period will soon be over.

M&S 'Not Unhappy' - so not actually 'happy'.

I guess that's actually better than how most investors feel.

An improvement in the JV HY results is one essential positive to support the sp. Interesting to see if it regains 300 in the next day or two or whether it marks the current 'top'.

I certainly do have an agenda, which is to not lose money.

So far OCDO hasn’t cut it this year and has had to be traded to stay above water. I exited at 300 (as I said at the time). I’ve not given up on it but it has been going the wrong way and the headwinds are constantly building. Sometimes reality = negativity.

On a positive note, though, the falling red trend on this 15’ trading chart has at last been challenged: https://invst.ly/15ffsa resulting in OCDO’s best closing since MS put the boot in on the 25th June: https://invst.ly/15ffww . Will 300 mark the top or will we see a rally taking the sp higher towards the results?

Whatever the merits of OCDO’s technology, it seems that the market for warehouse automation, driven by retail e-commerce, is not currently generating the anticipated demand for such systems. Perhaps because of these sector challenges, OCDO appears to be devoting more effort than was expected into helping its partners to make their CFCs profitable. These are not encouraging signs and come in addition to its failure to qualify for final payment from MKS in their JV. The fact that the qualifying targets were binary indicates that OCDO was very confident about achieving them when it signed the deal and failure to do so, or to negotiate any justifiable variations prior to the target date, raises serious questions about OCDO’s competence at a senior level. It strikes me that these are fundamental issues driving the sp ever lower and I rather doubt that the HY results will materially address them.

*Sobeys

Infor: ‘The price of borrowing this stock is silly at the moment …’

Obviously neither the lenders nor borrowers agree with you on that point. Either the lenders think that the stock merits a premium or, more likely, supply is not matching demand. If it’s a premium price then is that to discourage the shorts or because the lenders anticipate that increasingly high returns are likely to be made and they want a bigger share of the proceeds?

The shorts obviously still think it continues to be a good proposition. All in all it’s not encouraging and, although mistakes can be made, they are not all fools.

Who are the shorting funds borrowing from? Obviously major holders. Can Tim, legally loan his stock out, for example? I doubt that he can, even indirectly, and I’ve got no idea on that point. If I were in his shoes I’d want to have my cake and eat it if it were legally possible - can’t be worse than betting on an election date can it?

Looking at a 15’ chart of the past eight trading days (ie when the Sowbreys news broke to today), I’d characterise today’s price move as a break downwards:despite this morning’s high: https://invst.ly/15evj9

It might be a levelling out in the 280-300 range and others might be even more optimistic but I’m not detecting any positivity ahead of the HY results.

Retail earnings figures will hopefully be good in a fortnight but, of course, many investors in OCDO are here for the tech prospects. The outlook there has not been looking as good recently and this has been the prime reason for the fall in sp. Net cash outflow - continuing spend on the technology - has not yet generated the level of returns needed to justify it. It seems unlikely to me that the HY statement will fix that perception and I think that the best outcome might be limited to a halt in the sp decline rather than a reversal.