Member Info for Boyobach

You presumably paid less than the mid price at that instant, so the system deemed it a ‘sell’. Had you paid more than the mid price it would have been deemed a ‘buy’.

Following on from my weekend quip about conjuring tricks: Does Hatfield make Tech Solutions revenue look better than it really is at the expense of Retail? Maybe the trading statement will provide an update on this little issue from the HY report, where it said:

‘There are 30 legacy non-OSP modules within the 112 modules at the end of the period that primarily relate to Hatfield and Dordon…. During FY23 the Hatfield CFC ceased trading; the Technology Solutions business is entitled to continued capacity fees of circa £33m per annum at Hatfield and continues to charge them in full to Ocado Retail….

So retail is effectively losing around £33m per annum which then boosts Tech Solutions revenue for supporting unused kit?

That makes the total of active modules substantially lower than it can appear at first glance, it also doesn't reflect well on the depreciation value of used modules.

It may not have been the most convincing of break-outs today but at least OCDO did shuffle out from beneath the trend that has pinned it down for the last five weeks: https://invst.ly/16d5bp

Chart people will note today’s ‘gravestone’ candle which, as the name implies, indicates that early bullishness gave way as the day progressed. It may not be a great sign for tomorrow but these things aren’t always right and staying above 340 to mid October remains the main objective right now, with anything better a bonus.

If it stays around 350 today it will be stepping out sideways from under August's downward trend, an essential part of the challenge to come over the next few weeks: https://invst.ly/16cy69

Yes VP - the next five weeks should be interesting in terms of trends - especially the three year one. I guess there'll probably be enough optimism to maintain the sp until Sept 19th but, for me, it's a coin-flip from there: https://invst.ly/16cdwq .

However, I think any news from the trading results will be mainly dependent on the retail side and there shouldn't be any significant surprises there. Whether a 'no thrills' statement will be enough to sustain the current sp is debatable. I suspect not.

The sp may be up but, as of yesterday’s close, it remains in a downward trend: https://invst.ly/16c75y and is basically level with the May-June average.

You have to dig very deep into the HY Report to find this:

'Contingent consideration due from M&S: At FY23, the IFRS 13 fair value was estimated using the expected present value technique and was based on several probability-weighted possible scenarios that a market participant would consider and was determined to be £28.0m. Management has reviewed this valuation and considered the weightings ascribed to each of the possible scenarios in light of the current circumstances and facts and have determined that the value of £28.0m remains appropriate at 1H24.'

I recall that TS may have suggested £120m as possible but I don’t believe MKS have ever acknowledged any liability , even in respect of the drastically reduced £28m fair value estimate (just 15% of the original £191m). I have little doubt that it will all have totally vanished from the memory of gullible LTH’s by FY24, who have watched their investment also fade away in a consistent three year trend, where the volatility of ever diminishing peaks has distracted them from reality like a conjurer's trick. This significant and humiliating loss, like many other glitches, seems set to disappear within the deft silence that has followed TS’ initial and theatrical sabre rattling. The guy is hopeless IMV and his outrageous bonus package in relation to performance to date, strikes me as a worrying sign of misguided faith on the part of investors who seem convinced he will pull a rabbit from his now rather worn out hat. For, after years of producing nothing tangible for them, any magical expertise he possesses has so far been seemingly limited to making cash vanish rather than appear.

Still, there's always tomorrow... Background reference re MKS dispute from February: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/29/ocado-could-sue-marks-spencer-dispute-190m-payment

As far as I currently know, OCDO has lost all of the £191m (25% of the total) from MKS in the JV deal because OCDO, under the leadership of TS apparently failed to seek appropriate contract adjustments to accommodate changes made in light of COVID. The point here is that there are some obvious questions about management competence at a senior level, given that the company continues to be rated as ‘weak’ in terms of financial performance after 13 years on the market (source Investing.com). However, investors seem to be generally complacent about it. In April shareholders gave approval to TS receiving up to £14.8 million bonus. The maximum is apparently dependent on Ocado’s share price rising to £29.69 in three years’ time, and improved cash flow; if this goal is missed then Steiner would still be set to receive up to 600% of his base salary, or almost £5m.(source HRMagazine). So, if those figures are correct, that maximum of nearly £15m would be approaching roughly 18x his present salary for an sp about 9x today’s. Whilst there seems little prospect of that target being reached, it still represents a bonus that is more than double any investor gain through increased sp.

'If he thought it was good value at £20+, it is difficult to understand what changed that made it not value at £3+....'

Really Owls? Is it difficult to understand? Maybe he noticed the big red line here that hasn’t been crossed for three years: https://invst.ly/16am8t . If the tide is against you it’s sometimes wise to change course.

'A CFC announcement Monday or better than expected market update and boom goes the trend.'

Yep Smalltime, charts when navigating tell you where the stars might be. And the likelihood of news+boom on Monday is...? Probably as low as your understanding of odds/risk/probability or anything based on measurement and observation.

When you don't understand something, your only hope is that random chance fits in with your unfounded expectations.

You haven't grasped that charts are indicators rather than predictors? It's when the price breaks a trend (does NOT go as predicted by a trend) that the chart is most useful and indicates a change in direction. You're filtered btw, boring conversation over.

Stupmy: I can recall you wisely pointing out to me that I should wait to see the closing price before drawing too many conclusions on the day. My own feeling is that the sp could cling to 340 until it is confronted by the two remaining down trends. If it survives them, especially the second one, then things will start to look more hopeful IMV, especially if things look bullish for retail as Christmas season approaches and if the budget drives people to spend rather than save.

Ha! Smaltime:I guess you’re the kinda guy who would go into the wilderness without a compass.

By the way, the chart prices are accurate - not subject to any interpretation by me, so you are saying that you pay no attention to recent pricing (which is what the chart is: a spreadsheet of price against time in simple picture form that saves a lot of words).

340 was under pressure today but, let’s be clear, for Long Term Holders (LTHs), 340 is a nominal level where the sp may drop as low as 330 intraday providing the close is back near 340. Today’s close at 337.9 was not great but nor was it a break downwards. Here's a 15 minute view of the last two day’s action: https://invst.ly/16a41f . Closing price is arrowed.

Having said all that, just take a look at the wider daily chart and see what you conclude: https://invst.ly/16a3uu

Yep - it's effectively down. IT guys on holiday probably.

No one knows what the sp will be tomorrow let alone months away, Sharma. And don’t believe people who tell you that they do. I doubt that there are any professionals here and I wouldn’t trust anyone who might claim that they are. If your health is being affected then gradually reducing your exposure to the risk here may be a good idea. Try to make measured and rational decisions based upon what is best for you in the long term.

In my view there is a risk that the sp could fall further based on the current fundamentals and price movements. However, it is a share that has often been lifted by sentiment and belief rather than facts and results, so it can therefore be disproportionately influenced by news and gossip (such as you will see here) and increase sharply for a period. For those reasons,I regard OCDO as high risk and I am not invested in it currently but I might begin to if it falls below 300, only adding in stages if there appears to be a sustained recovery in progress.

Best of luck..

I think intraday gaps are usually only relevant in the context of day trading. This particular gap, of nearly 40p (over 10%) occurred outside trading between the close and open prices. A 15 minute chart shows it very clearly: https://invst.ly/169tx2 . It was unusual because of the way it was masked by the nature of the daily candles. Had day1 been a rising candle then it would have stood out a mile as a significant continuation, whereas it was a very sharp reversal (which did not last).

340 held up rather well for two months between mid April and mid June but the Sobeys news finally broke it, driving the sp to a new low at 278: https://invst.ly/169lw9 ,Whether 340 is still as resilient today remains to be seen. Because of the pressure that the sp seems to be under, I’m not confident that we will see the classic ‘inverted head (278) and shoulders (340)’ type pattern that would represent an encouraging indication of potential recovery.

It’s not an obvious gap on a daily chart https://invst.ly/169low because the candle on the 16th overlaps the previous one in an apparently rising pattern. However, they are both ‘red’ - the opening price on the 16th therefore represented a big gap upwards from the 15th close and, despite the drop back on the same day, which continued on the 17th, the gap only reduced to about 5p and wasn’t entirely filled.

That's because the good news is never as good as the hype that surrounds it, Gioviano. A realistic assessment of OCDO's fundamentals isn't massively encouraging but people are attracted by the idea of game-changing technology, leading to the bubbles that it tends to create.

It’s amusing to see that Justfencing gets 4 recommendations for the personal comment ‘Value 🔔end’ yet only someone who fits his description would fail to recognise that OCDO remains within a long-term falling trend - https://invst.ly/1696vw - and that VP’s observations have been largely correct up to now.

I've never heard of Cokes but the Coles CFCs were part of the HY Report and guidance, so already priced-in to the sp.