Member Info for Boyobach

' a money pit that bleeds away profits' isn't a good prospect for any investor.

A disappointing end to the week, it may only be 5p down on last Friday but it's at a time when every p counts: https://invst.ly/17-mqc

Is context needed? If so: https://invst.ly/17-myx

It's pretty obvious what next week's question is - and what answer is forming.

Absolutely correct Chilting. It would be a disaster.

OCDO has enough trouble regarding its identity and potential conflict with possible clients without adding the complexity and cost of establishing conventional stores to the pot. It needs to continue its path to profitability by continued reduction of amortised development costs and debt.

He's a well qualified clanger after all!

As of 10.40 this morning, this week's question was getting more interesting: https://invst.ly/17zgf9

A significant trend breaking 320+ on the cards for next week, or another slap down?

What happens after 300? Surely that’s 400!

If you're as confident about that as your use of the word 'surely' implies then let's hear your rationale.

300 would represent a low point not seen since June which, to any logical thinker would indicate that the sp is falling rather than rising. As anyone who recognises that sp's find levels of support when falling will know, support levels have two characteristics: they potentially offer a good place to buy because they are a natural low but they also carry an increasing downside risk because, if the support ultimately fails, the price will tend to drop more sharply, usually continuing down to the next support. The last time this happened here the sp went to 279. So, after 300 there are two logical possibilities: a recovery towards 320 (the last resistance) or a fall to 280. 400 wouldn't come on the radar until, as a minimum, the sp regains 350. So what's your analysis that supports 400 being the next step based upon?

Sorry Stupmy: I had meant to put 302 - it actually went to 302.39 according to Investing.com. It didn't affect the point I was making but if you are keenly looking for 300 then it was an unfortunate slip on my part - apologies.

The Kroger - Albertson’s story was presumably what pushed the sp down to 302 during the first 45 minutes today but it rebounded smartly enough to indicate a fair level of support. This is useful if it is to resist the red trend over the next fortnight. Until November, the sp had been falling at a much slower rate than previously, levelling out above 340 for most of the time. That levelling out had already broken one longer term downward trend and, despite being pressed to 300, it does seem likely to eventually break this current one - but how soon? My guess would be within the next couple of weeks. This is because, despite breaking downwards yesterday, the sp is today showing some signs of firm support and even potential reversal. https://invst.ly/17yuaf . Kroger is, after all, now somewhat less constrained.

Regain & Maintain 320 or back to 300?

17 month trend (red) v last few days (green): https://invst.ly/17wmt1

Yep, Waccy - business as usual.

I wouldn’t want to upset long-filtered HKK by posting a current chart with the inevitable negative trend, but I’m sure this old one showing the gap up that started OCDO’s ascent from 264 in Nov 2017 to dizzy heights will be ok: https://invst.ly/17runr .I expect everyone’s forgotten that gap by now, so there's no risk of it getting filled is there?

I, and some others here, generally use this one: https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B3MBS747/

as it's more convenient to use and has a graph charting the moves. It seems to be accurate most of the time, updated daily by around 5pm.

There’s a spreadsheet updated daily on the FCA website (the source for most reports? ) which currently shows a total of 5.7

https://www.fca.org.uk/markets/short-selling

That's a good example of the many questions to which the most obvious answer is 'No' In this case, backed up by the unwaveringly high level of declared institutional shorts.

Erith and Dordon are totally unrelated in terms of geography so unconnected in terms of business planning. The conclusion would be that Erith is no longer delivering the performance that Morrison's want and that they've been offered a deal to give Dordon a go. It may be cost neutral for the moment but it hardly strikes me as good news. November has effectively seen 50p knocked off the sp trading range from a base-line of near 350 down to just above 300. 340 now looks increasingly above the top of the trading range, currently around 330. The next most established downward trend is closing in over the next month increasing the downward pressure: https://invst.ly/17los4 .

Correct Waccy - unfortunately the swings have been more consistently down than up over the last four years and the cumulative effect has knocked the sp down from the craziness of £29 in 2020-2021 to 2017 levels.

The only positive fundamentals news this year has so far been about Retail rather than Tech - so I can’t see how being on the Nasdaq would help.

Retail has effectively propped up Tech development for over a decade and it would be in profit today were it not for the ongoing £33m pA payments to Tech Solutions for redundant and outdated kit at Hatfield. This caused M&S to say in their FY report that ‘With capacity fees for Hatfield continuing to be charged by Ocado Group, we do not currently expect Ocado Retail to reap the full financial benefit of transferring to the new site [Luton].’ It is therefore not surprising that, given a suitable reason, they declined to pay the final JV consideration.

All this does not help OCDO to sell its technology as it begs the question, after years of use, whether it ultimately delivers the expected cost benefits. Nasdaq investors would be no more forgiving than the UK market about this.

£7m at 16.35, was the closing auction UT which set the closing price.

Yes, a very welcome rise today. The cause isn’t clear to me but may become apparent in coming days…Volume on Friday was relatively strong (10m+) but pretty average today (volume shown along bottom of chart).

https://invst.ly/17hpkp

The absurdly thick three year red trend line in the chart highlights the barrier that mainly concerns me at present: break that and stay above it and I might start to feel optimistic. In the meantime, anything below 340 is a red flag, with 300-320 representing last chance saloon as far as I’m concerned.

Exactly Pokerchips.

Rocka missed the point: Technology that is redundant before its time and has paid for itself is a massive liability. The fact that Hatfield is costing £33m a year for doing nothing (according to HY Report) is wiping out profits AND making OCDO’s technology look bad.

‘we’re ultimately just in a cycle - it’s a matter of sitting tight and waiting for value to return….’

When each cycle peaks at less than the previous one you might find yourself sitting tight indefinitely.

OCDO Retail has improved markedly thanks to the current management, but past strategic errors and outdated web, supply chain and logistics software have taken a toll (see the MKS FY report). The result has been a poor showcase for OSP technology and, with market confidence hitting ever lower lows, 2025 may well prove to be the last chance saloon.