Member Info for Boyobach

Arguing about Valueplay’s consistently valid observations strikes me as an unproductive waste of time, rather like chats here with individuals who have the attention span of a gnat when it comes to numbers.

Whether long or short, day trader or LTH we all have one thing in common: we want our investments to be fruitful. And with a relatively volatile stock like OCDO - particularly since it levelled out from steep decline last summer - there are plenty of opportunities for all of those investor types to make a buck if they are smart about it and play the cycles. OCDO has prospects which have been overvalued in the past based upon relatively unattractive fundamentals and management that has, arguably, shown poor discipline and strategy (like failing to ensure that a key bi-conditional target was either met or appropriately renegotiated). Thanks to shorting institutions, the sp has been brought closer in line with reality. Now, with Retail providing a firmer base and Technology earning a steadier revenue underpinned by mature software there are reasonable prospects for growth, although risks undoubtedly remain. In the meantime a long term investment can be profitably maintained, despite the lack of dividend and capital growth, by savvy market dealing.

Ocado certainly caught a cold on the back of Sainsbury's announcement yesterday…..

Suppose you are a hedge fund that is renting a significant volume of shares to trade as you please and which you have sold off at a higher price. When the stock hits a suitable low - like 270 - you would re-stock and watch the price recover to a suitable resistance level - like 330 - and then look for a reversal opportunity. Ideally this would be triggered by the market as it’s always best to sail with the wind, although controlled selling-off might be sufficient to start the process. It’s then a simple matter to ‘rinse and repeat’ when the cycle reaches the next low. As long as there’s enough gain per cycle, why would you close your position? You can also continue the process even as the price rises, provided the cycles remain profitable.

Yes indeed PC - I always try to stay in sync with them and also keep my net cost per share well below the long-term average.

A pull back was very likely as it failed to secure 330. The main interest will now be in how far it goes and whether 294 will mark the limit or if the gap to 280 will get filled. A potentially good buy-back opportunity for those who sold some at 320+.

I can't find details of their analysis so don't know what (if any) their rationale is. However, if it's an algorithm or AI generated number (like some systems produce so we PI's are 'better informed') then 280 is a very obvious low target given other recent ratings, the price action over the last month and the gap left at that level. However the price is currently on a reasonable recovery path towards last summer's support level of 340, which would be a good base to secure prior to February's results - they are the key. It's ultimately down to market sentiment ahead of them followed by reaction after. At least there shouldn't be any nasty RNS surprises during the quiet period to throw a spanner in the works meanwhile.

Five straight trading days that started with a gap up, have launched the much needed revival in OCDO from its seven year low: https://invst.ly/18igmb

It continued to flatten out as it approached 330 resistance, leaving the question of whether it’ll have enough momentum to progress tomorrow or how far it might pull back before regaining that level by opening and closing above it. The closing auction did not leave a strong clue about that and was not particularly bullish. Shorts don't appear to have changed but are now at about half of the level seen at the end of May, when the sp was above 350, which is promising.

Yes - hopefully a more measured response by the market this time and a sustained recovery back above 340.

…… last time OCDO dropped into the 270s in summer 24, the following update propelled it to the mid 400s…..

Not exactly, Barnety. It was a curious and volatile time as I recall. The immediate market reaction to HY24 was negative as it closed lower on the day but it had been in the midst of a sharp recovery upswing following the major drop to 280 triggered by Sobeys news of a pause in CFCs and a negative analyst downgrade. However, shorts had begun reducing as the price bounced. So, despite the initial reaction, the recovery swiftly resumed and shorts continued to reduce but it all eventually stopped abruptly, leaving a gap from 432 down to 415 which has yet to be filled as the price hasn’t revisited that level since. Here’s a closer view of that period: https://invst.ly/18ibxi

Do you seriously think VP maintains a short position indefinitely? I assume he opens and closes short positions as the sp reaches resistance and support levels - quite possibly switching to ‘long’ during the bounce backs (as the pros would do). I doubt that VP is going to get ‘cremated’ - I think that’s a bit naive - I’m also too busy watching out for myself! Like many ‘longs’ here, I will trade a few at appropriate times - it’s been the only way to make a buck with OCDO’s sp movements over the last four years of continuous decline: https://invst.ly/18hw8z .The vertical lines on the first chart mark HY and FY results dates which give a feel for how the market has reacted to them in the past. Let’s hope the next one at the end of Feb is better than average.

The blue line marks the 3 month moving average so, obviously, the periods when the sp was above it mark the times OCDO’s sp was pulling upwards for ‘longs’ , whilst below signals when the sp was falling and benefiting shorts - ie most of the time. If OCDO is going to fly again, after the relatively soft landing at 270 last week, then the sp needs to stay above the blue (here’s a closer look: https://invst.ly/18i3ct ) . Hopefully the FY results will pull it back into the 340-400 range.

Should that be Mornington Star? It’s a joke right? I note that their uncertainty rating for OCDO is ‘very high’ and they have it as a ‘no moat’ investment…. which means ‘a firm with either no advantage or one that we think will quickly dissipate’

I see it got three recommendations here.... smart bunch aren't we?

It’s been a good week for OCDO: a recovery to 320+ from the six year low of 270, breaking a recent short-term negative trend (red) and the sp finally making it back over the three month average line (blue): https://invst.ly/18ho-l . It added up to a 55p gain ( 20%) over four days. Reported short positions are now down to 4.15% according to: https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B3MBS747/

However, the sp seems to be encountering resistance as it approaches 330 and it remains to be seen how much of a barrier that represents. Levelling out in the 290-330 range consequently looks like the most obvious next phase but, with the gap at 282, a return to 270 can’t be ruled out until a more definite recovery is established.

Much will now depend on sentiment as the FY24 results approach and on the subsequent reaction.

It was 17% over three days Kingshott - which you dismissed as trivial and I demonstrated that it wasn't by giving the extended time example - you are either poor at reading stuff or make selective errors in order to misquote.

As far as manipulation is concerned, you seem to know a lot about that. As you have nothing sensible or of interest to say - you are filtered and this conversation is over.

And boyo comparing a 17% increase on value isn't the same as quantity of shares bought or sold.....

A 17% rise is 17% (270p to 317p per share over three days) irrespective of the number of shares.

Sorry if that was a bit complicated for you to grasp.

Toffers: 'Boyobach you said you sold this morning, so why even comment when you're out?'

A 'tranche' is a portion of a holding.

You think Blackrock are out? Is that because they've just dropped below the monitoring threshold of 0.5% to 0.39% ?

Absolutely Pokerchips.

I also find it amusing that the 17% rise of the last three days - a rate of increase which, compounded, would double the sp in around 3 weeks if continued - is seen as 'nothing' by someone who describes a 1.6% reduction in shorts as 'massive'.

Re: 'They've all got away with this without a big uptick.'

So 17% in three days of trading isn't significant?

I must say that I'm content with it as a profit on my latest tranche, sold this morning as it reached its three month average: https://invst.ly/18gir-

Back to the gap maybe? Or is it too soon?

Owls:'VP doen't mention entries or exits'

Neither do I - I am mainly long but I don't necessarily continue to hold at 100% when the tide is against me or there are profits to lock in when it seems appropriate to do so. I don't recall him saying he has a single continuous short - I assume he manages his position, as indeed any sensible person or hedge fund would. At 270 he said he could see further falls occurring and I happen to think there's a risk he could be right (there's a gap on the way down at 282 which will likely get filled at some point). Where VP and I understandably appear to differ is that I think that OCDO is close to the bottom and may even have reached it. I therefore manage my 'long' investment in OCDO according to my expectations on reading the market - varying between all in, overweight, underweight or all out. I assume VP does something similar but with an overall short view: so a mirror image in simple terms. The idea that he goes short and then sits on his hands during years of volatility and opportunities to take profits seems over-simplistic to me.

As I recall, the Hatfield £33m is quoted as a 'payment for unused modules' to Tech Solutions, implying this does not include site costs like security etc.. It's paid by the JV - so half of it would effectively come from MKS' share of the costs wouldn't it? Let's see what the FY report says about it - maybe there'll be some clarity about how much longer the JV will be paying Tech for the unused kit and boosting Tech's revenue at the expense of retail (which might otherwise be in profit ).

Why do you assume VP did badly Owls? He probably opened short positions at over 320 and closed them at below 280 - that's over 40p gain in just over a week. As I explained, it's been a good couple of weeks for anyone who's got their eye on the ball.

Since 30th December, OCDO has gone through a full price cycle where it has swung either side of 294 - potentially worth over 50p in total to either ‘longs’ or ‘shorts’ (as they can each play opposite halves of the cycle). So OCDO has been good for trading even though It’s only about 2p more than it was a fortnight ago.

https://invst.ly/18fcsx