George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
I don’t recall saying that the long term trends would necessarily be strong - they are significant indicators rather than points of resistance, although they have the potential to delay progress as could be seen this morning: https://invst.ly/12nyg6
750 remains my target as a baseline to attack higher levels.
All fairly bizarre as I actually think OCDO is overpriced but I’ll make money if the market is determined to push it up until the next results come in.
In the context of long term recovery, 750 is now a key marker in my view and OCDO is on track currently:
https://invst.ly/12mx56
It does, of course, have to smash through the two significant red trends that stand in its way.
There's patience and there's common sense.
An sp may fall and, if it does so, there are simple tools to indicate when the price is recovering or if the slide is continuing. If CWR is ultimately to be a success then there'll be a turnaround and there'll be plenty of opportunity to get on board- it isn't going to Berenberg's target of 925 overnight and it's firstly got to escape from the last three years of decline, shown by the main red trend here: https://invst.ly/12mwlw
If it gets back above 300 by 1st March '24 (ie back above all the red and green trends shown) then it may be worth considering but until then the brutal truth is that Ceres looks like a busted flush: it had its window of opportunity but has failed to convince energy majors or, perhaps, been surpassed by other technology which looks more promising. Hydrogen was always going to be a challenge and maybe Ceres isn't the one that's destined to crack it.
An interesting time in terms of Shel's sp:
https://invst.ly/12mkh4
Red, Green or Blue? They can't all remain intact into the New Year.
I’m not sure it would fuel inflation Getafgrip but I’m not too familiar with the bond market. I’ve always simplistically inked inflation with money supply - so, for example, when the UK started chucking extra money into the economy during COVID it wasn't too surprising for me when inflation came later down the line after about 18 months. It suited the central banks and others to blame high fuel costs, of course. But the simple fact is that money that isn't earned is surplus and fuels higher prices, which only the rich can afford, whilst the poor have to go without.
Isn’t the problem with low coupon bonds that they give a poor return (yield) for the capital originally invested in them compared to newer higher coupon bonds. Selling them off doesn’t change the coupon - which is fixed - so they can only be sold cheaply in order to attract a buyer that then gets a more attractive yield in line with the current market? The loser in this situation is the seller which, in your scenario, would be the current Chinese holders who would receive fewer dollars per bond than they bought them for. When the bonds mature the new holder gets more than they paid for them and that gain matches the loss of the previous holder(s). No extra cash is created so there's no inflationary effect (unless I've missed something - which is quite possible!).
End of week and, despite the 6% overall drop in OP (it was 9% at one point), Shel is less than 2% down since last Friday : https://invst.ly/12leqq
The fall in OP stopped last night at the bottom blue trend line here, which goes back nearly three years:
https://invst.ly/12l1bk
It could prove significant if that bottom trend line were to be broken by the combination of high US supply and low US manufacturing demand but, for now at least, OPEC+ appears to be controlling the bottom limit.
With the pull back in Shel’s sp since the highs of October, it seems worth looking back at the broader long-term context.
Shel has followed two underlying trends since the oil industry low point of 2020:
https://invst.ly/12kjs0
Firstly green which charted the recovery phase and secondly blue which charts the levelling out phase since March ‘22. The lowest thin blue suggests a current bottom around 2350 if the price continues to slide: https://invst.ly/12kkm9 although this assumes that Brent’s average does not fall below $70 - quite an assumption at present (see moniman's post).
One major factor that has separated Shel (and BP) from other oil majors was the big and historic cut in dividend in 2020, which has yet to be fully restored, although Shel has used ‘buybacks’ as alternative distributions to shareholders. So how does Shel compare with XOM, which it used to track more closely until the divi cut?
https://invst.ly/12kkfj
Still some distance to go perhaps? But it rather depends on OP, which often hits a low during the US winter months even without overproduction from the shale producers.
Sentiment is certainly keeping the blue trend alive and has moved the open and closing price solidly above 600 for the first time in over two months:
https://invst.ly/12k93d
Is the trend sustainable and what has shifted the OCDO revenue/prospects dial to make it already worth around 50% more than the £4 some analysts were suggesting back in September? Presumably market expectations regarding the January trading statement and February final results are key factors driving current strength and those expectations may well support the sp until late February and the numbers are revealed.
Yes indeed Gioviano - my comment may prove to have been a bit hasty.
Monday's candle set the scene - testing well above at 626 but it was ultimately a down day. Today saw a smaller scale opposite - taken together a sign of market indecision, leaving OCDO still on the upward trend for now. https://invst.ly/12jo6m
November's upward climb appears to be over for now with the sp possibly levelling out in the nominal 550-610 range: https://invst.ly/12j6ng
Following on from my previous comments:
For those that watch the EMA indication - which I find useful at times but usually a bit late - that indicator is showing no signs yet of converging towards a ‘buy’ signal and is consequently also suggesting the drop will continue:
https://invst.ly/12ivmo
....provided the opportunity I needed to conclude my buy back of sell-offs made in October, effectively locking-in the profits and putting my LTH back at par. I’ll be ready to add if further opportunities arise at the right levels relative to other factors.
OP and Shel are both continuing to fall under similar but not identical red trends in the following charts:
Brent: https://invst.ly/12iv7q
Shell: https://invst.ly/12iv5z
The difference between the two is mainly in their starting point but OP, unlike Shel, is now testing its low-price trend (green) for a second time, whilst Shel is only now testing lower levels having today fallen through the blue line. In short: their respective red trends are dominating so the odds are in favour of further falls - will green mark the bottom for either or both of them?
End of week: The usual 4 Majors against Brent since last Friday: https://invst.ly/12hwx6
Shel was the worst performer: down 1% with Brent down around 0.5%. CVX and BP actually up
Shel is still within a downward trend (red) and testing the upper blue support here:
https://invst.ly/12hx68 , with 2500 and the more recent green providing the next supporting levels. A winter ‘low’ around 2450 or lower would begin to look distinctly possible if the current pattern continues through next week.
A significant break upwards for OCDO yesterday.
And for those that watch it, the EMA went into 'buy' a fortnight ago and now shows no sign of slipping back, as it often does with shares hovering near a turning point. https://invst.ly/12h0ey
The U.S. Just Recorded Its Highest Oil Production Month In History:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-US-Just-Recorded-Its-Highest-Oil-Production-Month-In-History.html
For the last decade, OP has been subject to US ‘boom and bust’ cycles which, following the last OP war with OPEC+, were supposedly now under control because US companies that needed to pump ever increasing volumes to service debt had all gone bust and shale production came under the more prudent control of better financed organisations.
Yet OP today still remains vulnerable to US overproduction and depends on OPEC+ reducing production in order to balance supply and demand.
As Presidential election approaches, the current administration would love to see OP nearer $60, so don't expect green policies to keep much of a lid on things.
Addicts don’t like their supplier….
Oil is a necessary evil: society knows it but it’s easier to blame the oil co’s than to accept responsibility and deal with it.
As the week progresses:
Oil is up $2.5 since last Friday’s LSE close but, despite following it up on Monday, oil companies are back down and effectively flat:
https://invst.ly/12cwvo