Member Info for Boyobach

Jeez, this board is cr*p.

Total waste of time.

Owls doesn’t understand price ranges? That’s interesting for someone who invests because knowing what price range your investment should fit within at any given time is somewhat fundamental.

Say I want to buy a house, it may be useful to know what the top and bottom price would be for a given size and type of property in a certain location. Pretty basic stuff - unless you want to get ripped off. And when prices are moving, you either have a grip on what’s happening - or you don’t. Wider market moves have an impact but isn’t an individual company’s performance rather more important over time? Let’s checkout OCDO v the FTSE250 (pink) for the last five years: https://invst.ly/19wehg

Top price range was around 2750 to 2880, today it’s around 280 to 300. Meanwhile, the market index has moved by how much? Virtually flat over the period, actually (until the Trump effect last week).

How do you manage an investment if you don't watch its price range and movements?

Whilst the market generally fell from the start this morning, OCDO spiked higher along with MKS. However, by 10.45 they both began to fall back into line with the rest of the market, with OCDO finally closing down at 284, near the middle of my suggested trading range (orange) shown here: https://invst.ly/19vte9

It’s interesting to see how OCDO has tracked MKS (pink) over recent days as both have risen against the FTSE20 mid cap (blue) in this 15 minute tick chart: https://invst.ly/19vu2h .

Might OCDO have recovered to its pre-results levels, solidly above 300, had it not been for the wider market headwinds?

Also note that, in the daily chart, OCDO’s 12 month falling trend (red) is currently approaching 320, crossing below it next week. Will OCDO break above it or get pushed down when they both meet?

MKS doing well this week, as is Kroger in the US. Perhaps OCDO is a simple reflection of those - although I would see the relationships as more complicated than that.

Well it's a strong recovery, especially given the falling wider market and the unknown impact of US tariffs on the Kroger partnership, but it has yet to challenge the twelve month falling trend - so I would not call it a break out yet: https://invst.ly/19vfpz

Interesting KUMS.

Unusually, OCDO was the only riser in my portfolio today, although, to me, it does seem to be finding a ceiling at nominal 300: https://invst.ly/19v15k . However, the floor of the present trading range - which assumes it will flatten out like last year rather than continuing along the prospective green trend - is proving elusive to determine, my guess is 260 but optimistic chartists will point out that it may continue upwards, breaking through the twelve month red trend and casting a text-book ‘inverse head and shoulders’ pattern. That possibility would leave 225 as the bottom of OCDO’s 2020’s journey. Over optimistic? KUMS is clearly bullish compared to me. What do others think?

Despite the sharp drop last Tuesday, which dented the upward green trend on the following chart, the last fortnight has seen OCDO’s best run in nearly six months: https://invst.ly/19seuu .

So, how much steam is left? Is it set to challenge 320? That could be very significant if it broke the 12 month trend. Or is a pull-back now due? If so then mind the gap.

Declared short positions remain above 5% meanwhile: https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B3MBS747/ .

I didn’t see yesterday’s strong jump coming. It’s good news but it has left a gap to 260.20:

https://invst.ly/19q9h1 We have seen what invariably happens with those but despite that, and much as I prefer to see a steady gain in sp, it provided a significant recovery signal.

Ianfm says he missed the proper bottom at 249.4, I wish him well but I confess to being interested in seeing it go lower in order to reacquire one tranche I sold near the recent top. Today’s auction UT kicked the price below 250 and I reckon it’s probably set to follow a similar trend down to around 225 as it did a fortnight ago ( arrowed here in this 15 minute view: https://invst.ly/19pj62

However, history doesn’t always repeat itself.

The more familiar daily chart now looks like this: https://invst.ly/19pjq6 , with volumes (at the bottom ) gradually falling back to normal levels.

It tested down to 256 on Friday but was back up to near 262 by the close. That was a stronger finish for the week than might have been expected. Maybe another attempt at 270 this coming week? https://invst.ly/19o8hu

This is certainly one to watch, Pokerchips. However, Asda have been in trouble for some time, as spelled out in this Guardian article from September (worth a full read):

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/sep/22/asda-pays-the-price-for-big-debt-and-turmoil-in-the-boardroom

The group, which was bought by the billionaire Issa brothers and private equity firm TDR Capital in a debt-fuelled £6.8bn deal which was finalised in June 2021, is battling high interest charges, a massive IT overhaul required to separate systems from former owner Walmart, and a shift into convenience stores which have added complexity to a formerly simple business model based solely on superstores. Small stores require a new set of products, often sold at different prices and with different delivery requirements.

Interesting to see a kick of support at 259 this morning - will the downward half of the cycle continue ?https://invst.ly/19nc0h .I guess it depends on the shorts' strategy.

Well TBF it is a routine monthly payment into the 'all-employee Ocado Share Incentive Plan'. I'm sure it's peanuts compared to his total holding.

A pretty average volume day overall but one which saw the sp climb to touch 270 at one point, only to be dragged down in the last hour and dealt a final blow in the above average volume UT which sets the closing price (last three days in 15’ ticks seen here, with the UT arrowed and volume pillars at the bottom): https://invst.ly/19mslo Day traders will note that the UT has brought the 8,21 EMA close to crossing into ‘sell’ territory, so things are set-up for a fall back tomorrow.

Anyway today was good enough to merit an adjustment to my trading range, putting the ceiling back up to 270:

https://invst.ly/19msxi and giving some hope that, even if it pulls back, the sp looks unlikely to retreat further than last time and may challenge 270 again quite soon.

Continuation of yesterday's break above 260 is encouraging, lifting the ceiling on the current trading range.

Daily chart at 9am: https://invst.ly/19mc-0

The prospects have been there for a while now, Qantas. This is not a mass market product and they are selling it into a tight and competitive industry.

They need to consolidate a solid reputation. The CFC pauses, Retail JV losses and expensive redundancy of capacity at Hatfield, not to mention the warehouse fires, have not helped them to establish a strong reputation.

The sp is now back to levels seen fourteen years ago, so progress from here is overdue.

I agree with your points, Pokerchips - particularly about the amortised development costs etc. But I do question whether TS has been as good as his remuneration suggests. There have been mistakes along the way: overcapacity issues, the poorly defined or controlled ‘binary’ target with MKS, investment in unrelated ventures amongst them. I would summarise them as a lack of discipline and focus from the top. There’s been too much reward before results in my view.

Just for completeness, an end-of-day snapshot: https://invst.ly/19l4nf

Will this mark the top of the latest range?

It's basically back in line with the FTSE250mc, as it was eight days ago: https://invst.ly/19k-up

So has effectively moved with the rest of the market in between those dates (but not proportionately in percentage terms)

Worth every penny?

https://www.cityam.com/ocado-ceo-pay-jumps-despite-heavy-losses-and-flagging-share-price/