Member Info for Boyobach

apparently, to squeeze one's eyes and s***** is deemed offensive by the lse algorithm - my apologies.

.... than our vigilante pal:

an ‘indecision doji’ to mark the end of the week: https://invst.ly/1b678s down by just a fraction on last friday, with 250 and 270 still theoretically on the radar if you s***** hard at the chart - so let’s move on and remember how the sp went in the years between 2011 and 2018, when 220 provided a solid base line for over three years: : https://invst.ly/1b67ww

let’s hope it’s still solid because it hasn’t gone lower since then and 135 and 60 are the next historic supports. 180 didn’t provide support back in 2011 and i don’t plan to be on board if it is tested again, especially as one analyst has identified it as a target. enjoy the weekend!

Well said Pokerchips - I do recommend those comments. Maybe I won't give up just yet!

Jtrade and Pokerchips, as usual making useful comments in this and other threads. I never dismiss Valueplay either - he’s allowed to be repetitive because, frankly and frustratingly, the underlying reasons he gives have not changed. In that regard, my own commentary about falling trends and average value is similarly like a stuck record (not that anyone under 50 will know what that references). Once the Autostore issue was resolved and the JV established I think we all expected OCDO to move smartly ahead - however it hasn’t. Patience is one thing but my feeling is that there are some fundamental weaknesses here. The failure to achieve the agreed binary payment from M&S, excess and unused capacity etc. etc. Yes - dilution may now be inevitable for shareholders: they are an easy source of free cash with no dividend paid to date. With 240 starting to look like the latest ceiling, I’ve pulled my speculative punt from last week and my patience with OCDO is just about done.

Should we expect the HY25 Preliminary Results to differ substantially from guidance?

I doubt there’ll be any surprises either way to shift the dial. More drift likely IMV.

Will it head towards £1.80?

It’s looking increasingly likely since Monday IMV, with another dismal day as OCDO’s sp flounders near the bottom with little sign of recovery. Reported shorts now back over 6.35%: https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B3MBS747/ It's rarely smart to bet against them

Time to pull the plug on my Friday punt, methinks, as the sp failed to recapture 240 on the second attempt today : https://invst.ly/1b4z5m

Hopefully you are right Sheltie, let's see if it recovers to around 260 as a first step.

Here’s a 15’ ‘trading type’ view of the last few days with volume per 15 minute period along the bottom: https://invst.ly/1b4bq3 .Note the 5.7m volume registered around mid-day today compared to the usual daily peaks seen after the close (which are typically around today’s 1m, rarely exceed 2m and mainly reflect the closing auction volume). Longs will be hoping to see the sp continue to cycle back upwards and break above 260 and the prevailing down trend (red).

Any sensible person will only put their money where their brain is, monitor their position and manage it as appropriate to minimise losses and optimise gains. OCDO is a speculative investment that has been grossly overvalued by investors and analysts in the past.

Just checking Marketscreener for Analyst consensus, I see their average target price today is given as 292.7p, which looks very optimistic to me, bearing in mind that the sp has rarely reached that consensus average in the last four years.

https://uk.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCADO-GROUP-PLC-6413974/consensus/

*Cloudflare (typo, also in chart)

Cloudfare are a strong performing tech outfit - their sp has had its ups and downs but, at around 20x the marcap of OCDO today, they’ve found a successful niche. Here’s a comparison with OCDO’s sp since 2019: https://invst.ly/1b393-

Retail and warehouse robotics vs Content Delivery Network and Security…..an interesting comparison.

That's the way to do it!

Despite all the negative indications, I decided to take a small speculative trading punt on Friday when OCDO reached 234 and levelled out after breaking above the sharp four-day trend: https://invst.ly/1b36sy . It was about 10p higher than I was anticipating but positivity in the Kroger results seemed to slow the decline towards the previous bottom around 226: https://invst.ly/1b36wj and I’ll offload if the decline continues below that level. Last week saw OCDO’s sp collapse back to lows which would have been disappointing ten years ago and around £1 lower than those typically seen a year ago. This was despite the encouraging indications from Kroger, a key partner in terms of OCDO’s prospects beyond the UK. The overall chart trajectory remains negative and well within the prevailing 2 month and 16 month trends, which are nowhere near being challenged. OCDO’s suite of technology therefore needs to swiftly prove itself and gain wider adoption if the long term slide is to be halted.

This was an interesting quote ahead of Kroger Q1 news today:

The company’s focus on digitization has strengthened its omnichannel capabilities and sharpened customer connection, driving sales through expanded services like Boost and Delivery Now. By enhancing its fulfillment infrastructure, Kroger has effectively kept pace with growing online demand. With digital sales surpassing $13 billion in fiscal 2024, this growth trend is likely to have continued into the first quarter.

https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2514843/how-should-investors-approach-kroger-stock-before-q1-earnings

Onsolidground asked:'Is everybody waiting for a 200p to load up fully again?'

I won't comment directly as I'd get accused of de-ramping. All I would suggest is that we should all look at the consistent trajectory of this share, look at the business performance, success characteristics of partners using the technology , and check for signs of a reversal. Trying to buy 'the bottom' is always risky -especially if you load up fully! - and you have to be prepared to bail out quickly if you get it wrong. 224 represents a nine year floor for this share (based on open-close price) -so if it goes below that we are literally off the charts in terms of guessing the next level down (there will be theoretical supports but they'll be in speculative territory}. I also have a concern about cash - is the hat likely to be passed around to shareholders anytime soon? So far, TS doesn't seem to be too bothered about shareholders as long as there's sufficient cash to drive his pet project.

Sheltie: I think that you are inadvertently amplifying Qantas’ presence here - bringing him back onto the screens of people who’ve filtered his noise. Just see how he’s become the subject of this thread. It serves no purpose - other than giving him the attention he loves - so it could get you filtered too.

Having opened at 236 and swung between 231 and 240 the day’s range was marked out within the first 15 mins of trading: https://invst.ly/1b2h7s OCDO is now 2 months into a steady decline as my anticipated levelling out after April’s recovery never materialised: https://invst.ly/1b2hfb

With around a 12% drop in the last five trading days, it seems inevitable that the 226 ‘bottom’ will now be tested again. If so, will it hold?

Thanks for clarification re the Bon Preu CFC being a new build rather than a replacement, 2phevs.

Let's see if a pipeline of new projects now starts to develop.

Cheers Carrington and GL to you going forward.

2 PHEVs: Valueplay and I have agreed and disagreed over time. He has been consistent (and correct overall) about shorting, I have always talked from a long or trading perspective (longs lose value here unless they trade). I recall thinking- and probably posting - that the ’no CFC’ news was not going to help the sp immediately but that consolidating the business before expanding further roll-out seemed rational given the high level of borrowing.

Unfortunately, as time has passed - especially since the disastrous market reaction to the FY24 results - I have had to take a much tougher and less patient view of OCDO. I don’t short it but neither do I sit on my hands watching my investments slide. Shares that drop in value and don’t pay a dividend are net losers and, particularly when inflation is present - they kill capital value. For some time now OCDO shares only build value if they are either shorted or traded as the price cycles. Everyone here who has made a gain with OCDO has had to trade at some point.

I’m not emotionally attached to OCDO - the technology hasn’t made the impact I had originally expected to see and, frankly, if it was that much of a grocery/warehouse game-changer, I’d have expected it to be making more headway fourteen years after launch on the market and more than 3 years since COVID lockdowns disrupted shopping habits.

Today’s supposedly ‘good news day’ caused a spike up at the open but then resumed the dreadful down trend from yesterday: https://invst.ly/1b1-qy (which can’t be blamed on the FTSE as the 250mc was up over the day). It has been a real indicator for me because this one CFC announcement appears to have been dismissed by the market as something that should be occurring routinely: after all, only a very small car dealership would expect to get much attention for selling one car.

Carrington: I’m sure many here would agree with your strategy of ‘adding on the falls’, however I have almost always regretted using that approach with any share. Yes, it can pay off but in most cases I find it leads to accumulating losses until the bottom is reached. It is often supported by the notion of ‘averaging down’ which, as a strategy, overlooks the fact that each and every share in the average only makes a profit once the sp rises above it. Far better, in my view, to accumulate a share which is consistently rising in value - which OCDO has not done on a medium to long term basis for five years. Today’s drop in value given the ‘good news’ RNS is not an encouraging indication of market sentiment. I did not re-acquire today - even though the gain on my last ‘sell’ back in April at 2.99 would look quite healthy.

A new CFC is welcome news for OCDO and hopefully this represents expansion of the partnership with Bon Preu since their first (and only?) CFC deal back in 2017. I’m not sure there’s been one since - so I’m hoping it’s expansion rather than replacement. Apart from the initial reaction from OCDO fans, the market seems to be taking a more sober view so I'm gathering it's not that big a deal in the overall scheme of things? Meanwhile, the tendency for the sp to dive rapidly, recover slowly and only partially before diving again makes this impossible to rationally choose for long investment at the moment, whilst trading it, as ever, requires very close attention: https://invst.ly/1b1x91 (15’ trading type view).