Member Info for Boyobach

The bucking bronco that is OCDO (which some might spell with an ‘f’’) didn’t continue upwards after the first hour’s kick, with the rest of the day looking like a slide ride into a wall: https://invst.ly/1b1gzg

Will 244 hold? 226 beckons: https://invst.ly/1b1h2m

I can’t say I’m likely to get back in to this at this rate.

Well 250 got tested immediately this morning and the sp rebounded in the first hour to 254.

Assuming that it cycles back up over the next few days, what might the next peak be?

280 now looks very optimistic, with the most recent trend suggesting that even 265 could be out of reach:

https://invst.ly/1b18ao

I'm inclined to agree with MKS comment about the wider market drop on Friday, Stupmy, (chart with FTSE 250 mid cap: https://invst.ly/1b13n4 )

which I also think happened to coincide with a natural cycle back down. It will be interesting to see if 250 gets tested again tomorrow (Tues 17th) and if it holds.

Stupmy: letters of credit are a method of securing payment from a bank when specific conditions have been satisfied. In this case, those conditions were apparently set at the time of the partnership creation with Kroger in 2018 - I don't know those details but I assume they relate to services and equipment supplied by OCDO as part of their 'investment in Kroger's on-line business'. The RNS says the amount drawn was a 'capital contribution to OCADO' - so if it is a loan rather than a contribution then the wording is very misleading.

Positive trends don’t last long here do they?

It's now back to Monday’s closing price and slightly lower than last Friday: https://invst.ly/1b022m

Well I don’t know if Stupmy got the clarity he was looking for amongst all the cr*p here. My summary FWIW is this:

A letter of credit drawdown is a process where a party accesses funds from a letter of credit. Typically used in international trade, this allows a seller (in this case OCDO) to receive payment from a bank, ensuring a secure transaction. When parties meet the conditions set in the credit, they can draw down the agreed amount. (Source: airslate. com)

In this case the agreed amount, clearly stated in the RNS, was to provide a capital contribution to Ocado in respect of its investment in the Kroger online business.

Yes Sheltie. my cash is thankfully not locked-in.

Interesting - my immediate thought was that it was effectively a renewal of the arrangement (rather than a payment) which was needed because of the pausing of CFC's beyond the maturity date. I guess the FY results will clarify. Like Stupmy, I'm not familiar with this subject. The sharp pull back this morning is presumably coincidental then? Pity to see it drop below the 258/260 support area - let's hope 254 holds: https://invst.ly/1a-out

So on-line retail in the UK is now the main mover here rather than the global technology prospects? Interesting. I happened to be following a Waitrose delivery truck today and it reminded me that they don't seem to have done too badly since moving away from OCDO's automated CFCs. Maybe the tech isn't as game-changing as we'd like to think?

Regarding today's sp moves: A bit more upward push before the weekend would be welcome, if only to break the latest (dashed) trend. As with kings, when one trend dies there's usually a replacement in the wings:

https://invst.ly/1a-h59 .

( I’ve also replaced the 3 month SMA with the EMA as it filters the volatility from several weeks ago and better reflects the influence of the latest price moves on the long-term share value).

That's understandable as there does seem to be a possibility that, after the drop to 240, support may be re-establishing around 260: https://invst.ly/1azzj4

It was certainly a better day than I was anticipating: https://invst.ly/1ays99

A spell above the 3 month average is now needed to establish an upward recovery, especially as the SMA is firming up as the lows of early March drop out of the calculation.

Wisdom1234 says:' i never sell. once i invest i stay the course.'

Genuine Wisdom would say 'when your ship is sinking it's wise to get in a lifeboat'

Any investment, including those that rise reliably, should be astutely managed to optimise their value.

Meanwhile, OCDO is struggling to regain 258, which I identified prior to the weekend as the next challenge: https://invst.ly/1ay4ze

How do you know that a ship is sinking? Maybe when the sea is washing over the deck rather more with every day that passes?

The sp tested even lower than the closing price before recovering today, so it may continue upwards tomorrow - but I wouldn't bet on it.

By closing above 254 OCDO broke above the immediate downward trend: https://invst.ly/1awzg3

Will 258 - previously support - now present resistance? Regaining 258 is the next challenge.

Shorts were down to near 4% in January, so 2025 isn't going well. Today the sp needs to finish well over 254 to show some sign of bucking the latest falling trend: https://invst.ly/1awkq4 (15min view).

After two recovery days, tomorrow presents an interesting test: https://invst.ly/1awaa8

I wonder what it might indicate by close of play.

Pokerchips' comment yesterday,regarding the cost of OCDO's bonds, was worth noting given OCDO's debt level.

It’s been disappointing to see OCDO drop below the 260 support level:

https://invst.ly/1auf1n . The fact that I thought it might fall is no cause for celebration as far as I’m concerned - sorry for those experiencing more losses.

A 15’ trading view of today’s action shows the rather brutal closing auction, which slapped down the late afternoon rally with an above average volume of 1.234M (roughly 50% up on more typical recent UT’s): https://invst.ly/1aufg6 .

I won’t comment on where I think the bottom could be as the first chart makes a couple of obvious suggestions. Suffice to say I’m just watching - like a couple of others here.

Unless there's a positive and well founded message (not based on vague possibilities and promises), 'spreading the word' can be counterproductive sheltie.

I'm currently less optimistic than stupmy (ie next sp target at 236). I readily accept that, a year ago, I was convinced the levelling-out around 340 would hold. I feel it is more fragile now despite the easing of shorts since then and slow approach of net positive cash flow. However, as a tech company it is not in a mass market segment and so it's never going to be an ARM or an NVidia type prospect.

‘Everyone invested here clearly believes that [profitability] will happen and are trying to get in ahead of the game…..’

The problem with ‘getting in ahead of the game’ is that it invariably means being too early and therefore losing value over a long time. Even if one watches for the appropriate signals - like a break from the prevailing downward trend or consistent price above a given declining average - there are risks. An accumulation of 5p losses soon mounts up and, with lack of dividends and inflation, the loss of capital can become significant unless one works hard at trading to mitigate the overall decline. Better to acquire a share that is steadily rising than chase one to the bottom. There’s logic and there’s Qantas.

For over a year, OCDO rarely rises above its 3 month average price: you don’t have to be a genius to realise that that means the price is in long term decline. Sure, it may turn - which would at least offer an encouraging signal.

It’s not looking great this morning: https://invst.ly/1at92n

A 15’ ‘trading’ chart of the last fortnight shows how OCDO has moved - with highs limited by the two week red trend here: https://invst.ly/1asmoa , which was punctured in the last 15’ of trading until the closing auction took the price back down (arrowed) Monday’s price is anyone’s guess - the support has held out so far but the push down hasn’t eased.

In the four days of trading this week, with nearly six hours of trading still to come, the sp has spiked up but eventually returned to near or below the opening price. It’s not an upward pattern and the nominal 260 support has been under pressure: https://invst.ly/1as8ui .Today’s end of week close could give a strong indication of next week’s direction if it breaks decisively either way.