Member Info for Boyobach

We’re going to get Valueplay back on here again soon at this rate (says Barnety) ,....

Well, it was only saved by the closing auction https://invst.ly/1c3luu which pulled it back onto the support line after dropping to 338. However, I guess the dump and pump brigade might be getting more interested as it returns to the slippery slope: https://invst.ly/1c3lxc .

From Guardian and other media today:

Ocado worst for plastic bags as total single-use sales rise for first time. Plastic bag sales have risen for the first time in 10 years on the back of the so-called Ocado effect as online food shops and ultra-fast deliveries replace supermarket trips. Ocado sold more plastic bags than any other supermarket, at 221m, an increase of 30m on 2023, which the company put down to having more customers.

Thanks Oneclick: I can see you've got a good strategy going with OCDO and recommend your comments in that post to genuine 'longs' here.

I've looked but can't establish how long the JV's Hatfield payments to Tech Solutions will run for. I guess the contract was for maybe 5 years so it shouldn't be for much longer - but who knows? It does appear to have been a significant 'over capacity' blunder of the type that Valueplay highlighted in the past. ATB.

So here’s a snapshot from last year’s OCDO chart in August:

https://invst.ly/1c0pe9

This year it’s up by an inconsequential 4p on the same date but there are fewer uncertainties, so will the price hold up better through the autumn and into winter this year? Last year it drifted down to 320 by mid-September in the absence of solid news and statements - how strong is sentiment this time around? August can see a low volume lethargic market and today’s pre-bank holiday volume was a skinny 71.6k, so less than 20% of that on the same date last year. The sp is obviously in limbo mode currently, so what are we going to see when the kids are back in school and it’s back to business ? If it drifts lower will the shorts dump shares to add fuel?

Fair points (as always) Casapinos - with a good summary of the real position re UK on-line grocery shopping . If the cost of redundant kit at Hatfield (around £34m? per year which goes to Tech Solutions) wasn't present then Retail would be looking a lot better - but, of course, it would hit OCDO Group because MKS pay half of it. Hatfield CFC ceased trading in FY23, and the Technology Solutions business is entitled to those continued capacity fees: that's not been a good indication of the financial flexibility of robotised CFCs. As you can possibly tell, I have reached zero patience with all the 'jam tomorrow' gaslighting that PI's are exposed to. A strong and sustainable net cash flow is overdue in retail. ATB

The presentation of factual data can sometimes paint a prettier picture than the underlying reality.

I see from this link that ‘fastest growing’ Ocado now holds a 1.9% share of the grocery sector. Less than 2%, a quarter of Lidl’s share, doesn’t strike me as impressive after all these years.

OCDO Retail performance is now reported by MKS rather than OCDO isn’t it?

In the last set of MKS Full Year Results for the 52 Weeks Ended 29 March 2025 it said:

Ocado Retail Limited (ORL) JV share of adj. loss £28.7m (2023/24: £37.3m share of adj. loss).

Has there since been an update stating that the JV has finally moved into profit?

Are they still paying OCDO Tech for redundant kit at Hatfield?

I’m just trying to clarify why this ‘fastest growing’ grocer with advanced technology is still operating at a loss. It’s just not a great look for the technology: if it’s that good then why is the retail part of the business still less profitable than its traditional manual competitors?

It does strike me that some posters here do not entirely grasp how shorts and shorting institutions operate. Just because an sp is recovering from a significant low point does not necessarily mean that short funds are losing money or under pressure to close their position.

Professional short funds pay a fee to borrow shares while their position is in place.

During this period they may trade the shares multiple times as the price falls and rises, making a profit on each cycle until they close the position by returning the shares. It should therefore not be assumed that a rising share price will necessarily cause the closure of all declared short positions as the holders may have already reacquired the shares with the intention of selling them again if the price cycles back up to a new target level. Shorts can therefore continue to exploit profit opportunities from a rising sp if the average price continues to be well above their assessment of the fundamental value with volatility taking the price even further. Last week saw a profit opportunity for shorts to make over 40p profit per share, so to constantly say that shorts here are ‘doomed’ is absurd and shows a basic lack of understanding.

Maybe 380 ish, but I broadly agree Barnety. The problem with long term investing in OCDO is the volatility that gets triggered by relatively minor news developments.

Apart from a filtered response to my question from Qantas (which I doubt was very insightful) no one has offered reasons for a further increase in OCDO’s market valuation.based on the fundamentals.

So the consensus here seems to be that there’s not much reason for the price to rise further until there’s some news about new contracts.

Last year on Aug 15th OCDO closed at 377p (marked here: https://invst.ly/1byo1i ) , which is not vastly different from the current trading range.

It had oscillated wildly between 280 and 450 over the previous month because of over-reaction to the Sobeys news and a couple of analyst ratings but 377 was a fairly typical mid point for the sp range during that period.

Obviously, time has moved on and certain uncertainties have been removed but what has fundamentally changed in terms of contracts, JV performance and cash flows that merit a higher trading range for OCDO today? I’m genuinely interested in sensible comments - not ‘shorts are doomed’ and Grim's childish rants (I obviously filter those sources anyway).

Ha! I wouldn’t use AS as a benchmark for OCDO. Here is AS v OCDO rebased from May 2024. If you thought OCDO has been disappointing over the last fifteen months then check this out: https://invst.ly/1byng6 . You obviously know about the past legal dispute between the two.

Whilst OCDO is roughly back on par over the period (the 0% level on the chart = 15.3 kr) , AS is about -42% down (at 9.1kr) over the period and has been as much as 70% down in comparison (at about 4.65 kr).

(DYOR to confirm these figures - I don't ordinarily follow the Oslo exchange and am relying on Investing.com data)

Barnety 'If the low point has been reached in the latest retrace, then that’s significantly higher than the last. The next cycle up could therefore easily breach 400p'

I would have agreed if the trend had continued - but it hasn't: https://invst.ly/1bxlv7

I'm not a gung-ho 'all in - all out' investor like many here seem to be: I think it has potential but it has yet to actually deliver on market expectations which have historically tended to over-value it. I consequently accumulate on cyclic lows and reduce on highs - which works for me. I think 400 is currently near the top, based on current form and guidance, but I'll be happy if it continues beyond that.

In the absence of further news, there's not a lot to say. Having recovered from the FY24 results collapse in March, the sp appears to be levelling out within last summer’s trading range, which was broadly 340-400: https://invst.ly/1bwo46 . Reported shorts continue near 5% (they were around 6% last August).

The HY results have caused a change in market valuation of OCDO based upon its fundamentals and perceived potential. The former are not yet profitable but becoming stronger, the latter remains a matter of speculation. The price is therefore swinging within a rising trend (green here https://invst.ly/1bvpmn ) which will ultimately either overshoot or level out until there is further news.

History indicates that the market has tended to overvalue OCDO in the past, so any long term investment here should be carefully monitored and managed.

Apart from Tuesday’s drop back, it was an excellent week for OCDO, which has gained a similar amount over the last seven trading days to the strong rally seen over the three days following the HY results: https://invst.ly/1bugt7 . Shorts have reduced slightly to just below 5%. 405 is the next resistance target, not breached for twelve months, with an inviting gap up to 432 from July 30th '24 then on the radar. Sentiment is obviously strong even if the fundamentals haven't changed much. Lots of anticipation now built into the price.

Yes - a cracking day for OCDO now well on the way to last summer's peak, around 450 late July : https://invst.ly/1bt76x

It'll be really interesting to see how the shorts react, they remained around 6.75% at that sp last year but did reduce as the year continued.

Another interesting day with 350 resistance being attacked again. It opened lower than Tuesday’s close but quickly recovered on relatively low volume but the real pushes came in the afternoon - check out the volumes at around 14.30 and the UT as highlighted in this 15’ chart: https://invst.ly/1bs08j

The question will be whether the buying was genuine longs or shorts reloading and, if the latter, what are the intentions - close or dump if the price starts to fall back?

A profitable cycle is developing, with resistance becoming established at 350 and another gap to fill as the current phase moves back down. I'm not convinced about £4.60 unless some news shifts the dial.

https://invst.ly/1bqi8f

Shorts picking up a bit too. Interesting times.

Whilst comparisons in pence between shares is usually very misleading, it’s true to say that OCDO has moved above MKS in comparison over the year to date: https://invst.ly/1bpod- That chart is re-based from 2nd Jan this year, with MKS apparently down about 11.6% and OCDO up by 10% over the year to date.

It’s certainly an improvement but it should be remembered that OCDO would have a long way to go in order to match MKS in relative performance over the last three years - this next chart is re-based from end 2021: https://invst.ly/1bppgt when OCDO was at around 1358 and MKS was around 220. On that basis, OCDO would need to be over £20 today. Starting the comparison at 345 is handy when we want to reset the clock, look forward and forget the past.

Wellington have simply reestablished their short position over the last fortnight after almost halving it. Interesting to see if they continue to build if the sp rises further.

The chart ‘ceiling’ definitely moved up today as OCDO knocks on the 350 door again:

https://invst.ly/1bpnwy

Will it break through and capture it this time around or drop back?