Yes - a positive move and I put a toe back in. The volume was low, however, and dwarfed by profit taking an hour later: https://invst.ly/14c3bw . So I might have acted a bit prematurely.
Interesting comments in this thread - including a reminder of the dividend cut and the swing to buybacks (GaFG knows my views on that issue). I've been steadily taking profits here as the sp moves towards a potential ceiling but I'm reluctant to close out completely below 3000. Here is Shel 's sp against XOM and CVX since late 2019, prior to the divi cut: https://invst.ly/14c2v7
I think so Gioviano but I have no proof. Ultimately I think the market is rigged against PI's like you, me and all the guys here, including those who think you and me and others (like Valueplay - who I respect but know you distrust) have an agenda. In the end, I think most here on this board have a common agenda: to make our investments work for us and earn cash from our investments. I don't happen to think OCDO has performed as well as it could have. I also think the market has overpriced OCDO for much of the last five years. I think today's sp may be close to 'fair value' but there is precious little for me to base that upon, although I did think Exane's analysis last year seemed realistic. On that basis I'm currently considering a re-entry but, I have to say, I regard it as a risky proposition even at current levels. ATB.
Not an exactly convincing day for me msuk https://invst.ly/14bt5t (day)
And looking a bit weak by the close: https://invst.ly/14bt28 (15 min)
I might get interested again when it breaks more convincingly and the emas (day) look set to converge - but there’s no sign of that currently.
It may just drift around until the MKS numbers are due later in May.
I also think pro shorters (funds) play investor eagerness for recovery like a fiddle: pump, dump, repeat. However, many here seem to think that they simply close their positions and walk away. What do you reckon?
Static grid systems are for dunces:
So a large number of load bearing retrieval drones operating without coordinates in a randomly organised warehouse environment sounds like a safe, smart and cost-efficient idea?
Well the knife reference was to the last couple of days, since it fell through 432 support. The broader chart gave it some context and a possible landing point. Not that I'm interested until it reaches a credible bottom and some sustainable recovery can be identified.
When a knife is falling it’s smart to stay out of its way and see where it lands:
https://invst.ly/14apdi
386 was a known possibility. Beyond that there’s a lot less clarity and market enthusiasm for a share that serially disappoints isn’t infinite.
Simar: 'Ocado tech is in the CFCs not the spokes....'
This is now a critical point IMV: Are OCDO's CFC's a proven game changer for retailers that use the technology?
Some on this board play down the importance of the Retail JV but, in reality, isn't it the model upon which sales of the technology depend?
Is the Retail JV adequately demonstrating the potential of OCDO's Technology and providing a convincing case for potential clients to invest in it?
Failure of support at 450 after the Easter break, was my cue to exit before 432 was seriously tested. It got pushed to 430 but finally gave way today and a new bottom will ultimately be found, with the gap fill to 386.6, from last June, now looking rather inevitable: https://invst.ly/149ndd
OCDO’s sp is also now back to early 2018 price levels which, after six years, begs the question: ‘ Which aspects of the business are mainly responsible for the lack of adequate cash generation: Retail, Technology or Group Management?
Here's a reminder of how Shel and Brent have tracked each other since last October: https://invst.ly/149b6k
It's worth noting that, in charts like this, the Brent line is based on the daily closing price which occurs a few hours later than the LSE market close at 4.30pm - so they are not exactly in sync and, this morning, OP has slipped back a little since yesterday's LSE close. This 15 minute chart of OP v Oil Co's gives a more precise picture of the moves (the price scale is approximate): https://invst.ly/149be1
I agree Pokerchips - it's just harder to lose money on a share that's progressively moving up because whatever price you acquire at it'll end up higher at some point. With OCDO that's only been true during certain periods. I'm not especially bothered about buying at the bottom - it's a bonus if it happens.
Meanwhile the day ended a lot better than the first couple of hours were looking. OCDO has a number of negative trends to break through and, just maybe, it'll start tackling them from here. Holding onto 432 would be a start as there's a bit of a void below: https://invst.ly/148zp3
Phoenixy: Yes, it's putting up a fight to hold onto 432 - rescued by a rally around 10.30. If it's still above this support level at the end of the week then you may well be proved correct about the bottom. https://invst.ly/148rg7
msuk: I'm obviously not a trader but, if I was, I think I'd find it much easier/more profitable to trade shares that are on a longer term uptrend. OCDO currently strikes me as hard work for traders and LT investors alike.
GL to both of you.
Yes indeed msuk. Are you still following it ? Yesterday's drop through 450 took me out for the time being. I think today's fall might trigger stop-losses and so there's a risk of the fall accelerating . It's also now too close to the gap at 386.6 for me. The upside is not looking too great on the fundamentals either. It's the end of the financial year and OCDO has been a net positive for me over the period, so a neat point for me to exit.
Looking at all the trends in play, infor, what is your basis for disputing stupmy’s conclusion about the most likely price direction? On March 4th the sp fell to the current level but recovered in anticipation of the trading statement. However it has now fallen back to the same 432 support level, with the red trend here having broken every positive trend (green) it has encountered this year:
https://invst.ly/148dec
With no dividends and a lot of unknowns for investors, what are the main factors driving your optimism for the sp to build from here?
52-week high of 2,801.00, set on Oct 18, 2023......
Yeah -this chart happens to show the falling red trend starting at that intra-day high: https://invst.ly/147tx7
It's certainly a target for me, although anything above 2750 has proven to be pretty fragile so far! GLA!
I'd personally prefer less conflict in the world and a stable, sustainable OP but, hey-ho, the reality of humanity is chaotic at best and barbaric at worst. Yes Brent looking good trend-wise: https://invst.ly/147tlo and, TBF, $87 is at the upper edge of its 'normal' price range (if there is such a thing) rether than hitting an extreme.
Yes - it's 'year on year' - so achieved over a period of 12 months, not 'during its first quarter' as the retail gazette article states. Do you guys not understand the word 'during' ?
Thanks for confirming my point.
The article says the rise occurred during the quarter - but, as you say, it is a year on year increase so it occurred over a twelve month period - ie between the end of Q1 2023 (measurement 1) and the end of Q1 2024 (Measurement 2) it did not happen during a single quarter. It is the word 'during' that is misleading. Also. by using the word 'surge' it reinforces the false impression of a rapid rise over three months (ie between two adjacent quarters), when, in fact, it was an increase over a year which was presumably largely driven by inflation rather than business performance. I'm not suggesting that OCDO's performance has been bad but neither has it been an outstanding 'surge' as the wording of the article implies.
‘The news comes after Ocado reported a 10.6% surge in sales during its first quarter…’
I find this bit of the retail gazette article misleading: A 10.6% increase in the first quarter would indeed be a surge but it’s a year on year figure for the first quarter - so less than 1% per month averaged over 12 months. That’s not ‘a surge’ in my book. If it was a comparison with Q4 2023 , as the wording implies, then that would indeed be impressive.