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At the moment I'm neutral, Phoenixy. And so is the EMA -if you follow it, it's a fairly conservative (cautious) indicator.
The price has levelled out around 460-470 for nearly two weeks now as the trading statement approaches. Yesterday's spike wasn't on a high volume day and the sp has now dropped back. Let's see what next week brings.
So ultimately, despite the overnight shenanigans, yesterday’s gap to 468.8 did get filled: https://invst.ly/143kkv .
Perhaps we’ll now see the price resume a more consistent path?
This morning’s Investing.com daily chart has changed since last night’s version ( https://invst.ly/143e0x ) and shows the gap restored: https://invst.ly/143js4
However, this morning’s version currently gives yesterday’s low & close at 476.7 (which matches the UT) and Wednesday’s high at 471.9 (which does not match the previously quoted high of 468.8), leaving a reduced gap of 4.8p (down from 7.9).
It is rather unsatisfactory when the price data is inconsistent.
Many investors who watch prices closely know about gaps and the inevitability of them getting filled. So when a gap fill happens unseen and unexpectedly then it is, frankly, a bit unusual and some might regard it as suspicious:
Tonight’s closing UT was at 477.10 with the previous day’s high at 468.8. So today's 15’ chart is this: https://invst.ly/143dgm showing a clear 7.9p gap between the two days that was still present at today’s close.
However, without explanation, the current daily chart on Investing.com is this: https://invst.ly/143e0x , showing a new low for today at 466.7 (significantly below the UT) and a high for yesterday at 471.9 (significantly higher than yesterday’s previously recorded high)
The consequence of this is that the 7.9p gap has apparently disappeared since tonight’s close. (If anyone here knows when and how then please post some information)
If this is correct then it will alter market expectations concerning tomorrow’s opening price as there is no longer a reason to presume that the sp will fall in order to fill a gap that apparently no longer exists.
This will undoubtedly play well for those who favour conspiracy and manipulation theories. For the rest of us it’s just another day at the market - with the expected gap-fill now removed.
The charts have shown signs of the bottom being reached for about a fortnight, cureboy, but we get negative comments whatever we observe because a picture of what has actually happened doesn’t always fit certain people’s narrative. If the price closes today above 475, ideally after filling the gap to 469, then it will have been the most significant positive day since March 7th. https://invst.ly/142z6- . Unfortunately, gaps can’t be ignored because they do usually get filled unless the price continues to rise (or fall) at pace without ever returning to similar levels.
Yes, a nice jump this morning. A shame about the gap to 469 - hopefully that will fill and the price will continue to move on https://invst.ly/142xbc
Onshakyground - a guy who does not understand that observations are based in the moment. Specifically, in this case, the first half hour of trading yesterday and followed by a question NOT a prediction: ' will it break through 470?' .
I notice that Shaky didn't offer a view despite being invited to, preferring to wait a day and then misrepresent the content of my post as a failed prediction.
If shaky doesn't know what an observation is I hope he isn’t employed in navigation or air traffic control, or indeed anything requiring an intelligent response to changing circumstances (like driving a car or controlling investments).
He also doesn’t seem to realise that this board is for people who buy and sell shares and may wish to discuss price movements during the day - difficult for some to grasp, I guess. Or, just maybe, he likes to feel more in control of the debate. Social media does seem to attract certain types doesn't it?
Great for comic comments though - do keep ‘em coming!!
Meanwhile, a full two trading days after my 'upward pressure' observation and question, OCDO has eased back but continued to trade in the 450-470 band as the market awaits the retail statement (which I did suggest was a fair possibility a week or two back). Any moves currently will probably reflect that anticipation - which did look fairly neutral today didn't it Shaky?
Chilting: it is nearly two years since Ocado's SP dropped below 1000p and it has remained there ever since……
It’s basically gravitated to near a fiver, Chilting, https://invst.ly/141lr1 . The retail business may just about justify that (on a good day). As a tech company it hasn’t yet broken through to the big time and groceries aren’t the path to riches. Generally, in tech, it’s the ones that are associated with mass markets (or that supply them with chips / IP) that hit the big time and OCDO isn’t in that kind of sector.
If I visit the M&S website there is no prominent link or obvious way to get to ‘M&S at Ocado’ . If I go to ‘Food & Wine’ I’m offered cakes, sandwiches, party food etc. but if I want M&S sausages I firstly have to know in advance that Ocado, not M&S, supply them and then search for a link labelled Ocado (not M&S at Ocado), which is buried in small print next to the corporate link at the very bottom of the page. M&S clearly don’t want me to visit M&S at Ocado to buy their stuff because it will take me away from their main site. It’s a branding/marketing gaff worthy of a project on ‘The Apprentice’.
Yes Swanley - chart users will choose the charts, tools and timeframes that suit their personal needs and preferences. I've actually found msuk's recent posts here interesting and do find the trading type charts (15 min) useful when I'm almost ready to buy or sell but want to finally confirm or refine the timing.
OCDO has tested 470 on seven of the last ten days however, as positive as that may seem, it has not cracked it yet and the longer it takes the less significant the move may turn out to be. Next week's retail statement may hold the key to unlock things.
Just continue onshakyground, I'm well in profit on OCDO and that's all that matters to me.
There's always a debate about where a turning point will be - it comes down to probabilities in the end.
I acknowledged making an error last week - misread the chart and prematurely suggested a breakout had occurred when it hadn't (and still hasn't). Nothing in share dealing is guaranteed - charts are just a tool that shift the odds for LTH's as well as day traders.
If you look back at OCDO over the last five years, the charts (especially EMA) have invariably been indicating correctly.
Interesting to see some upward pressure during the first half hour of trading this morning: https://invst.ly/140teh
Highest intraday price (477) achieved for a fortnight. Will it break through 470 though?
Yes: Today marked the end of the latest uptrend (green dash): https://invst.ly/1407ht
and confirmed significant resistance at 470.
You could, of course, be correct avocet : there is that troublesome gap around 386 along with at least one previous analyst statement supporting that possibility. In the meantime, today's sp is moving sideways possibly hovering in the current region until the retail trading statement due the week after next.
Break of structure....
Yes msuk . I made an error yesterday when I said that it had broken above 470 - the opening price was below the line so there was a fair possibility that it would retrace. Conventionally, the view is that a breakout through a trend (like the red one here on the daily chart) will often return to 'kiss the line' before resuming. the breakout. No guarantees this will happen here of course, but the pattern fits so far: https://invst.ly/13-24l Tomorrow will tell.
Yes - it's been doing that for 5 straight trading days on the 15 min..https://invst.ly/13zed9
A great YouTube video posted here by edtheuph but hidden in this ‘Test ’thread. Thanks Ed!
Back in the boring and nerdy world of charts (which are NOT predictions but seek to improve PI odds when it comes to selling or buying OCDO) it’s been a second positive day with more ‘recovery’ boxes ticked: https://invst.ly/13z9zm and a much higher volume:
1) it broke through the red trend; 2) it broke above 470, 3) it broke above 8ema(blue) (NB: ‘broke’ means ‘opened and closed’ above)
It just about ticked the fourth and final box: The 8 and 21 ema lines are starting to converge towards crossover.
For clarification: That last point (4) is optimistically biassed by me because I am likely to act upon it. However, the actual ‘buy’ crossover indication often occurs much later and too late to be useful. It’s a tool that, most agree, is best viewed alongside other indicators like the relevant trends.
Will I buy tomorrow? Quite possibly, depending upon the morning’s trading indicators (which are indicators and NOT predictors). GLA.