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Volumes in the first hour were indeed moderately high but after the price briefly got pushed to the current three month trend here: https://invst.ly/1be7u0 , volume and price fell back with the sp ending the day only a penny up. Volume for the day ultimately ended up below the daily average (see chart). With little sustained upward pressure on the sp and the largely unchallenged 3 month downward trend bearing down on 240, it seems to me that the market is approaching a decision point likely to coincide with the interim statement.

Good advice from Owls here - it addresses a difficulty that most PI's have and few sadly learn how to handle: 'You need to know when to get out.'

Fear of missing out (FOMO) causes many to invest too early.

Inability to accept a Loss causes many to hang on too long - beyond the point of realistic recovery.

If you have x pounds invested in a company then, even if this is in loss territory, consider all the indications and whether that cash might be better placed elsewhere (even in a no-interest account!).

Unfortunately, in the four years since reality began to dawn on OCDO investors that the warehouse robotic technology may not be as game changing for grocery retail as originally thought, the sp has progressively fallen without finding the bottom. Significantly, the retail JV remains unprofitable - which raises fundamental questions about the benefits of robotic CFC’s. The initial sp fall to 500 took less than two years and in the three years since then the sp has failed to level out above a solid base, with 340 ultimately failing last year and 220 now being the nominal bottom line. A recovery back through 250 is currently proving elusive with each successive high tending to be lower than the previous one, which indicates a continuing negative trajectory unless something changes the fundamentals.

Here’s a weekly view over the last four and a half years: https://invst.ly/1bcv2i

And a closer view of the weekly ticks over the last 18 months: https://invst.ly/1bcv32

Whilst the tide may yet turn, I can see no indication that it’s about to and, unless something breaks through it, pressure seems set to build upon 220 over coming weeks. I'm not inclined to bet on the interim statement carrying a punch with that much weight.

Good points here today from Pokerchips and Sheltie.

I do agree that anyone serious about considering any investment needs to weigh the arguments. Living in an echo chamber that just feeds you what you want to hear is simply not helpful.

If/when the sp starts to turn around the charts will signal that change of direction as the sp breaks through the existing trends and establishes a new and positive direction. That process can be a bit too slow for some - which leads to riskier buying at the perceived bottom.

https://invst.ly/1bb-ll Closing above 245 within the next seven days and remaining above it would be an encouraging indication for me.

I don’t personally think the interims are going to have much impact on the sp as there are no great expectations and obviously no dividend to be declared. Any new business developments in the pipeline of significance should be announced as and when they occur - outside of the quiet period. Meanwhile the sp range is tightening near 240 and, as I’ve been saying, it’ll be interesting to see if confidence remains sufficient to take if solidly over 250 this month as that would indicate a potential recovery path.

We don't need AI to spot the trading cycles here - one constant characteristic of OCDO that is interrupted by the less frequent steps downward and the even less frequent and ever lower recovery peaks. Those who get 'in sync' can make a 30-50p gain fairly regularly either by shorting or more conventional trading. However, the question at the bottom of each cycle is always 'how thin is the ice (ie support level) this time around?' Historically they have all been broken over the past four years. That's why OCDO is a casino - not a chapel for believers or a sound and prudent business investment currently. How strong is 226 and when will it, because it probably will, get tested again?

Thanks GGEKO: the highest close of the week (245.8) which I was referring to was actually on Thursday not Wednesday. My error but not important in the context of the point I was making: OCDO had made progress from 226 on Monday, which needed to be recognised along with the next challenges it will encounter in order to continue upwards. Hopefully 240 (a nominal level) will now switch from being resistance to providing support.

Ha Ha 2phevs! So it’s wrong to report a factual position and comment on positive indications of OCDO’s progress? Weather charts change - so people commenting on them are, in your view, being snide? Investing is about managing a position and reacting to change - not ignoring it.

OCDO closed at 245.80 on Wednesday before falling back slightly. It had passed previously recorded resistance at around 240 and, importantly, has not dropped back below that - with a mid intra-day value of 243. https://invst.ly/1b9epc . That’s 1p above the nominal resistance level I mentioned. That’s a big deal for you is it? Whether up or down, charts provide a means of measuring OCDO’s volatile journey - the key questions at any time - whether you are a long investor or a trader (most are both as longs have lost money here unless they sell on highs and buy on lows) - is whether the sp is rising, falling, at a peak or at a low. The next question is what the next key level would be if it moves in either direction. And don’t let’s forget that the overall direction has been down over the last four years, with the current, well defined, 16 month trend falling at about £2 per year (the sp reached 450 last July) https://invst.ly/1b9f6u . I think it’ll be of some interest to those that monitor OCDO’s performance when/if it breaks that trend.

This week's resistance at 245 raises a question about the sp’s immediate prospects. With the H1 statement approaching on 17th July along with, by that point, a three month trend challenging it, can the sp break through both the resistance and the trend to capture and hold 250 ?

https://invst.ly/1b994p

Or, are we about to see another step down the slippery slope as the trend pushes the price down further?

Despite sinking after mid-day, the sp was rescued in the last hour including the after-close auction: https://invst.ly/1b8wqp ,

Leaving the daily chart looking a bit brighter and more positive for tomorrow: https://invst.ly/1b8wnx

Yes 242 is presenting quite firm resistance. Shorts remain firm

Disclosed shorts are down just 2% since their peak of 8.27% at the end of May 2024 whilst the sp is down by about 33% over the same period (roughly 125p down from 370). https://invst.ly/1b8m-0

Professional shorts bet on the fundamentals being too weak to support the market’s outlook - and they’ve been right for much of the last 15 years - backing off smartly in 2018, falling to zero five years ago before steadily tracking upwards again with the market’s correctly perceived over-optimistic valuation. Betting against them can be highly risky and they clearly view the immediate outlook as weak.

Robot warehouse technology is improving all the time. However, it’s not new - I seem to remember manufacturers using robots to move large quantities of stock decades ago - wider track paths and different (electric/magnetic) guidance systems then. It appears that OCDO (and Autostore) are further advanced in picking items (using a raised grid). The Amzn kit doesn’t do that as far as I can see - I assume it brings the stock to a manual picker at ground level, the human picker removes the item, and the robot then returns the stock to its storage bay. It makes sense for the variety of object types and sizes that Amzn must handle. Standardised packaging for finished goods is a key to increased levels of automation - reducing the picking task complexity and infrastructure.

A small reduction (0.03%) in reported shorts on Tuesday may have helped the initial push from Monday’s close of 227 to 240. Enthusiasm weakened yesterday,with progress beyond 247 proving elusive. Could today mark a renewed move up? Meanwhile the 2 month trend (supported by the much longer 16 month trend) is gradually pushing the highs down, the sp needs to make 250 by mid month and stay above 260 through to August to break this crushing pattern and start a meaningful levelling out and potential recovery to higher levels: https://invst.ly/1b8mjb (chart at 9.40 this morning).

Ocarro or Ocado ? Has someone got their grapevine wires crossed here?

Ian: I wasn't expressing a view, I was asking a question about the thread's title: What is going to be impressive in the results?

Being 'good' isn't 'impressive' is it? Why does WilliamP expect them to be impressive? We already know the Retail position -which he cites - and that isn't 'impressive' yet. M&S, who now report upon it, actually said as recently as May that it is 'disappointing'. They are not due to give a further update, although their AGM is today, I believe.

We all have our favourite indicators for judging buy/sell times (even if that tool is more about gut feeling than a rational assessment of price movements). I generally like trends - simple and easy to see the break-throughs. One of the trading guys who used to post here used the 15’ 8.21 EMA’s which I found to be really good (not necessarily relying on the crossover point itself - more the movement of the price through them). I found that to be good: https://invst.ly/1b7cu8 and it indicates a buy possibility from late yesterday but I’m not a day trader and I’m not convinced it stands much chance of going over 240, so I’m not especially interested at the moment. ATB

Why should OCDO HY results this month impress?

ODCO Retail’s performance has already been reported in May, where losses continue due to high service delivery costs and continuing lease and technology fees for the old Hatfield site. It should be noted that some of those losses appear as income for OCDO Technology.

The latest OCDO Technology Solutions news is known and is reported here: https://www.ocadogroup.com/media/newsroom

What do we not already know that will impress us?

On 21 May, M&S published their Full Year Results for 2024/2025 (ie last year). This stated that from 2025/26 (the current year), the results of Ocado Retail would be consolidated into M&S Group reporting as technical control of the 50/50 joint venture passed to M&S and that the just released results (for 2024/2025) therefore covered the 57 weeks to 6 April 2025 and included an M&S Group share of adjusted loss of £28.7m.

(Ref: https://corporate.marksandspencer.com/investors )

Yes - OCDO simply weren't the right backer for Jones: with too many problems and challenges of their own. OCDO should have evaluated the risks better and prioritised their own business.

I assume it’s priced-in, as the company went into administration and ceased operations in April - probably taking the wind out of the early April rally.

Failure was apparently due to high up-front technology and operational costs and low margins? Sounds a bit too familiar to me. It seems OCDO does not always make smart decisions. Getting the core business established and profitable should be the priority before chucking expensive cash into pet projects, like this and the ill-fated Karakuri kitchen automation project that are speculative and not directly linked to the nuts and bolts of the business. Investors expect and deserve discipline and focus. Bonuses should only be earned when results are achieved and targets (like binary contractual ones) are met.