The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
OP has been heading downwards for nearly a month, Neversell, so continuation of the slide below $80 has been on the cards for a while- especially as it often hits a low around the end of the year. Shel itself was due a pull back and TBH hasn't been hit as badly as some of the others: Here’s Shel v BP and Brent since last December: https://invst.ly/12a5gv .
Prudently selling the peaks and buying the troughs to enhance the dividend income is what makes Shel such a great LTH. I’m still 50% out and looking for the right top-up levels and would probably go overweight if it sinks further than anticipated.
2450 (ie £3 below peak) is a tempting possibility but anything down to the bottom blue line (near 2325) is on the radar as far as I'm concerned.
In the context of yesterday's post, today's break upward suggests that the prospective orange trend I mentioned may have some legs: https://invst.ly/128zv2
The recent price pattern is typical for an sp that is levelling out after a fairly rapid decline.
Of three current trends, red, green and orange here, the sp will break at least one of them tomorrow, with 460 marking the next test if red pushes the sp back below 500:
https://invst.ly/1283kw
Last week saw a steep drop of about 4.5% in OP on Tuesday but, apart from that, a fairly average level of volatility which ultimately didn’t add to that figure, leaving Shel down less than 1% and faring somewhat better than the other three oil co’s in my weekly list:
https://invst.ly/1272db
That’s a deep and complex conversation, Driftking, with many aspects. Share Price is just one of a host of measurements that need to be taken in context.
A snapshot in time can also give a very different perspective depending on the period covered. Shel's sp is doing pretty well by comparison with the others since the low point of 2020: https://invst.ly/1268n7
The chart for nearly two decades looks like this:
https://invst.ly/126860
Each divergence on the chart will have its reasons: like the Macondo incident taking BP down in 2010. XOM’s borrowing levels leading up to 2020, differences in taxation and other HQ country specifics and laws - remembering that Shel was a Dutch company until recently. So I wouldn’t pin things entirely on the FTSE - especially as Shel is traded in other markets including the US and much of the accounting is in $ rather than GBP. It’s interesting to note that XOM fell back to comparable levels with Shel (in terms of sp over the entire period) in 2020 but, perhaps partly due to investor distribution policy, has recovered since then.
I'd say that what matters to an investor today are the current prospects - past performance is useful as a guide but it doesn't guarantee a good future investment
I re-acquired 50% of my long-term holding in Shel earlier today. Littleaston, at about 2575/share.
That's when I spotted my mistake about Divi-date - which you correctly associated with BP, as I now have a few of those because I didn't anticipate Shel dipping to my first target level as soon as it has. Depending on how the two proceed, I'd like to move more fully into Shel again. In the meantime, I'm looking for an improvement in BP which has lagged Shel since May (as I've explained in another thread). ATB.
Chart to illustrate the potential 'levelling out' mentioned in my previous post: https://invst.ly/1260tr
Since the last significant fall in sp (15th & 16th October), OCDO has averaged around the NDX index, whilst tracking MKS and AMZ rather more closely:
https://invst.ly/126089
(Always bearing in mind the US market timing differences for NDX and AMZ closing prices).
Volatility has reduced and, with a more positive long term trend (green) emerging but not yet established, it’s possible that the downward pressure (red) is at last being matched - possibly leading to a levelling out centred on 500. This is still, however, well above analyst targets and therefore reflects a degree of market expectation, perhaps based on assumptions regarding seasonal factors.
The comparison between Shel and BP since the 2022 FY results is quite stark, especially when seen in the context of OP:
https://invst.ly/125pid
BP' sp is currently lagging Shel by about 15% in this comparison.
Irrespective of M&A speculation, does BP's current performance suggest that there is more upside potential at BP?
What is going on this morning - SP falling at pace?....
It's ex-div day for one thing. Plus Oil saw a sharp drop yesterday.
https://invst.ly/125p9l (15 minute trading view)
The trend has been down for a week now, which is of interest to those who recently took profits an may be looking for a buyback level.
My comment didn’t actually contradict your points, Newdealz. In fact, I ended by saying it was the most positive day for a couple of months. No one knows where ‘rock bottom’ for OCDO will turn out to have been, the current turnaround could prove similar to many others we have seen here - like last March/April's run at around today’s price. OCDO’s sp has a history of being driven by optimism which, up to now, hasn’t been supported by results.
'that's the gamble you take when you're bottom hunting....'
It's always better to accumulate a stock that's rising than to be averaging down a stock that's falling.
OCDO may have turned a corner with today's breakout and upward gap fill: https://invst.ly/120uj3
but Chilting's cautious tone is justified: the market was generally bullish today, and OCDO benefited from that, but whether the underlying business merits the trend reversal at this level is another matter. Certainly the most positive looking day since August.
Stunning market confirmation today: https://invst.ly/120trw
Shel is easily the best of the four majors in this chart since January:
https://invst.ly/120tjz
I wonder what the upside is now? Having sold when it peaked at this level a couple of weeks ago, and not seeing a worthwhile re-entry point since, I've partially switched into BP for the moment as there's a potential gap waiting to be filled over there. So, for now I'm totally out.
ATB everyone!
An encouraging breakout this morning: https://invst.ly/120568
(mind the gap though).
The relentless 2 month old red trend, shown here in 15' detail, is now putting pressure on the 450 support level: https://invst.ly/11-7ft
Here's the wider view: https://invst.ly/11-7q1
The first ten days of October saw an increase of about 10% in Shel’s sp relative to Brent, https://invst.ly/11-611, which can largely be attributed to the Q3 Update note on the 6th and anticipation of tomorrow’s Q3 statement. If it holds tomorrow, then it will represent confirmation by the market of the valuation it reached in March at the time of the 2022 Annual results https://invst.ly/11-67q .
Depending on your viewpoint -or how you’re inclined to spin it - this comparison of Shel’s sp over the past year https://invst.ly/11xx2- either suggests that the sp is currently ‘normalised’ with respect to OP, having the same relationship as it did during Feb - March OR that it is currently overpriced.
However, articles like the first in this thread and this one (also from proactive) are currently very bullish:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1031216/shell-s-upward-march-tipped-to-continue-with-third-quarter-update-1031216.html
Down a bit but a relatively good week for Shel compared to the others - just check out CVX since last Friday - down 13% ! If Shel had followed the same path it would have dropped about 350p over the week.
https://invst.ly/11xwsu
OCDO mounted a rebellion against the trend today, let’s look at a 15’ trading view to see how effective it was:
https://invst.ly/11x1w3
‘no cigar’ but maybe tomorrow? I’m not convinced, personally.
A daily view reflects the broader picture: https://invst.ly/11x232 and the comparable volume achieved to yesterday.