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Smart move taking the profit whilst it's there - others should mind the gap to 281.6: https://invst.ly/18ezjj

That's how retail works: tight margins high volumes.

And, for those who wish it was described as a Tech Company, it's worth remembering that its clients are retailers. So, either way, it operates in a low margin environment.

Tuesday’s Retail trading statement will do what it says on the tin so, unless the positives about Xmas have been overstated in the press, it is already priced-in to the sp. The statement will not cover Tech Solutions, which should have been busily completing installations, supporting partners and making upgrades according to guidance in the meantime. As can be seen from the Financial Calendar, https://www.ocadogroup.com/investors/financial-calendar , the next statement of consequence will be the 2024 FY at the end of Feb. This should be no worse than last year’s, which was overshadowed by MKS’ non payment of the final JV installment due to OCDO’s failure to meet a clear binary target, apparently without realising the contractual position. That triggered the sharp drop in sp to the 340 level. If 2024 guidance has been met then there is no rational reason for any further fall in sp and levelling out should continue as EBITDA will continue to improve whilst amortised development costs continue to reduce. Valueplay’s arguments have been based on valid factors to date but it remains to be seen if those issues will pull the sp below 270 during 2025 to 2017 values: https://invst.ly/18e4h2 So, the question is whether the company is actually worth more now than it was then? By most measures: retail value, tech development, CFC contracts etc. it should be.

Thanks for making the effort to correct me FT ! - the OCDO piece was certainly buried away,

Regarding the Yahoo link, save yourselves the bother as the OCDO piece is not much longer than the link itself and doesn't say anything useful :

Investors will also be looking at Ocado (OCDO.L), on the back of retail data which indicated strong performance for the online grocery platform over the festive period.

The levelling out that ran from mid April came to an abrupt end in November as the sp sank to 300: https://invst.ly/18diwp . And whilst the sp remained above 290, still well above the summer low point of 278, there was a reasonable prospect that the bottom had been found. However, this week’s collapse to 272 increases the risk of a further fall which should not be ruled out. This chart of the last ten years gives some indication of how this has played out so far based on a two year average (red): https://invst.ly/18dl14 . Providing OCDO doesn’t just collapse into dust, the bottom should be quite close.

278 was always going to be an interesting level if it was reached: a hard landing was optimistic as it had been barely tested back in June. https://invst.ly/18ctqc

Yes PC: the £33m fee is for the modules. Still within their working life but superseded - a cost drag on retail whilst inflating the tech revenue (no wonder MKS have declined the option of paying up in full). Technology needs to be as flexible and redeployable as manpower.

With the FTSE250 down today, OCDO recovered well by the close with over double average volume traded: https://invst.ly/18chy7

It didn’t quite hit this year’s low of 278 in June, but gave me the buyback opportunity I was looking for. As long as OCDO generates 20 - 50p gains on a regular basis I’m content. Any long term recovery would be a bonus. Here’s an hourly view of the last three days: https://invst.ly/18ch-m A fairly classic pattern.

It’s slightly amusing to read the vehement posts about shifting OCDO to a US market because this is a ‘tech company’ when the only positive news at the moment is about the retail side of the business - which is currently weighed down with £33m pa costs for unused tech kit at Hatfield. It's not a good look if the technology becomes redundant before its time and can't be redeployed usefully.

Smokinjoe: This will be the Q4 Retail Trading Statement won't it? It should't carry any information outside of that should it?

I'd forget about the MKS thing if I were you.

The Times did not fall into any such trap. The term ‘short investor’ (not to be confused with short term investor) refers to someone who has invested money on the basis that they will see a profit if the price falls either over a long or a short period of time. Those here who express a ‘short’ interest in OCDO should have locked away handsome profits by opening and closing positions at appropriate times during last year. Those who identify as ‘long’ (not necessarily long term) will have had a tougher time making a profit during 2024 as the price dropped by sound 50% in the first three and a half months, making the cycles much harder for longs to play. In contrast, for example, the last six trading days provided longs (trading for gain on a rise) with a good 10% gain cycle: 290 (buy) to 329(sell) back to 294 (possible re-buy). https://invst.ly/18biw5

Things looking good for the clothing side then?

As long as this trades in the 290-330 range centred near 310 , like it has for the last six weeks, there's not much happening really. Outside of that band and it'll be time to pay attention. https://invst.ly/18b4jw

I agree with all Chilting’s comments and would just add that today’s drop was consistent in terms of anticipated profit taking and the MS rerating (even though the latter only amounted to a 5p adjustment). There’s a flatter negative trend in place (when one dies another usually takes over) but this is far less established and, being flatter as well, presents a much less serious threat than previous ones : https://invst.ly/18ao64

Disclosed short positions in (OCDO) have now reduced to 5.26%, ie 3% less than their peak at the end of May.

Provided the sp doesn’t fall below 290 support (290 is the ‘new’ 340 for me) then levelling/bottoming out is continuing.

Yes Chilting.

Onsolidground said: ‘Moral being to buy the dip, especially when the volume increases.’

This has generally been correct provided that you sell at the next peak. Buying the dips and holding hasn’t been a good move with OCDO for the last five years as the dips have moved ever lower. It’s been a trading share rather than a long term investment since 2020 but this might change if the current levelling out becomes established.

Morningstar’s 920 Fair Value isn’t very convincing given they qualify things by declaring a high uncertainty rating. For me, OCDO remains a pure punt that has to be managed closely.

Quite encouraging,

OCDO’s levelling out in the summer, predominantly above 340, looked promising up until mid-November, when it gave way to the one remaining red long term trend here: https://invst.ly/1891sp

Now, having cut through that trend after a three week battle, it is levelling out again in a range that is about 50p lower. Will it linger near 300 or establish a bottom by moving back up to 340-350? It’s worth noting that the blue three month moving average is still heading down and has yet to flatten out, whilst the sp continues to trade well below its position relative to the FTSE250 (pink) that it established during the last ‘levelling out’ from May of last year. So, although the last few days have been encouraging, clues about the path forward have yet to develop.

‘Rumours are that they have had an excellent December….This will bounce hard from here….’

Fair enough - but that observation suggests that it’s the retail side that will drive any improvement in sp rather than the tech, which is seen as either paused or stalled depending on your pov.

So, given that OCDO’s value largely rests on retail right now, would US listing for a UK retailer really see this rocket?

Meanwhile, the last two weeks of 2024 have seen the sp in a rather decisive struggle to maintain its current level. There's been a promising start in the first half hour today but the jury is still out: https://invst.ly/18878o

The market remains indecisive about OCDO, the sp slipping back into negative territory and testing support yet failing to break downwards: https://invst.ly/187-5o

It's a 'sit back and watch' period, especially with the market in the midst of seasonal hours.

Despite this afternoon’s drop, OCDO closed today consistent with the sp continuing to level out: https://invst.ly/1877he . A significant year+ trend ( solid red) broken within the last two trading days, along with a short term (red dash) , plus OCDO remaining in step with the FTSE250 and 8% above it in terms of the sp's seven year low point in June: https://invst.ly/1877lw .

It's not out of the water but a slight exaggeration by VP and an interesting prospect as 2025 approaches.

The last nine months of levelling out hopefully completed : https://invst.ly/186345

Yes, Pokerchips. The business actually looks in better shape than when the sp was near £30: the technology is more advanced and mature, retail management is performing much better and there’s no outstanding IP dispute. So, as a basis for moving on, the company is on firmer ground than it has been for a couple of years. Providing TS and the senior management maintain discipline and don’t make expensive strategic errors it looks solid enough to continue at a controlled pace with the JV hopefully expanding whilst the technology consolidates its position. Less volatility and steady growth from today's level may be boring but that would be better from an investment stand point. It just needs to stay above 300 well into 2025 to draw a line under the steep correction from those absurdly over-priced levels.