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I think RSI is a good indicator for entry into a stock, but unless you're trading irrelevant of newsflow then it shouldn't be a good view of exit. 14p is hardly "into the stratosphere" here is it? When I see 14p my first thoughts are that the share price is pathetic. Clearly it's only down here because of the pending finance deal, I'm not sure RSI has predicted that would take 17+ months and it's not going to tell me when it's coming. Though you could argue that a high RSI of 80+ indicates that the market is expecting some good news, but that would be a bug signal surely?
Xen, it kind of isn't. That rise went to RSI 86 it fell back to 78 then had one last push and went to 90 which was manically overbought. It has been sold off since that rise and has never troubled the RSI above 80 since or that SP high either.
Nothing is infallible but as indicators go the RSI is one of the best.
RSI is irrelevant when solid news arrives. This went from 5.7p to 27p at one point. People didn't stop buying at 8p thinking it was over bought. Certainly TA may help you for short term trading but do you want to be out when that big RNS blows the charts away?
Comp Int.. No, I think FG post 13:41 will definitely take a lot of beating. 😂😂
I think thats about right. As you identify thought, the RSI is a little toppy so it reduces the odds of it coming to pass.
For instance it could drop from here to the support of 11.75 (ish) before moving up the stratosphere of 14p.
But as I said, on balance I think the odds favour slightly an increase from here.
Twib talks about 18p,25,30p but actually 75% of CEO and CFO's share options are only granted if the share price reaches a minimum of 37.50p - 100p! 3-10x from here sounds good. Besides they need to achieve this before end of 2025 or else it expires. 😂
@Wyn - nice TA and insights. where the price could decrease to your estimates of 11.75p, representing a potential loss of 1.25p. But for a potential reward of re-rating to for instance 17.75p. The Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1.25 / 4.75 ≈ 0.263x. If my calculations are correct, would that be a reasonable assumption u think?
Seems a good enough bet. But of course i am optimistic about surpassing the initial target of 17.75p in the long term. IMO DYOR
73p sounds good Twib 😂
Falklands contract 18p
IM 25p
Financing 30p
Fg , quite possible at some point imho
Stokey yes would hope it will be paid in interim payments over that period , bearing in mind this is only one of harls contracts the thought of them going bust appears somewhat distant, 200 million contracts in the pipeline and tendering for more I would think plus IM and Falklands contracts very close to being completed
IMO we will move from 13p to 26p, without warning, over the space of a few minutes.
The question is. When?
GLA
Bubble2021 ref 13.31 post What we do not know is what stage payments are payable under the manufacture sub contract between HARL and Navantia. It is a seven year contract for around £750m so I would not expect HARL to have to wait until the end of the contract to be paid.
Hi CI, yes it is a tricky call. I take more notice of the RSI when it hits 80 so from my experience there is still a good chance of further upward movement from here.
I I'm sure you can see it went to 13p and had a small retrace before closing back at 13p over the weekend. At the moment it a possible double top may form but even if that came to pass, a fall to around 11.75-12p would seem all it would go to.
My best guess is that it will rise rather than fall from here to at least 13.5p or 14-14.25p and then that would be RSI toppy and could well retrace to 13.p from there as that would in all this guesswork, be a support line.
Anyway good luck, (and we all need a shed load in this game!)
The amount of money being pumped into infrastructure at harls yards in particular from navanta 77-100 million doesn’t suggest that they would go bust in fact I think navanta may pump more money in as we approach first steel cut for FSS contract imho
Ref 13.17 post the first line should read I did not say that all the £300m+
Yes I've topped up today although from technical analysis perspective, the RSI is still showing signs of overbought. RSI around 70... so one could argue that it is very risky to top up now but I think at 22mil market cap, the down side is limited unless it goes bust. However, I think quite a lot of news in the pipeline so this could drive higher and also risk not to be holding when refinancing news can be imminent as Xenor mentions. IMO,DYOR.
Compoundinterest ref 12.53 post I did not say that the £300m+ was coming from SOWEC that figure comprised of Export Development Guarantee Funded Loan of £200m less $115m existing debt which is being paid from it. At today's exchange rate that would leave around £108m. Plus £270m investment funding this would come from SOWEC in whole or in part. How any shortfall in the investment element will be covered I am not sure. It is possible that a JV may be formed to develop either or both of Arnish or Methil.
Xenor…never ,compoundinterest like those figure good opportunity to top up well done👍
The entire SOWEC budget is GBP 500 million of which includes 45 projects that applied to the SIM. 10 priority projects identified. Other category is progress projects and there are 19 which includes Harland and Wolff.
£500m budget from SOWEC is for all the 45 projects, of which Harland is only considered as a progress project (Not priority projects ) so I am not sure if the entire £300 million will be coming from SOWEC since that's most of the budget. I guess JW proposed this idea to SOWEC whether they accept or allocate how much of the budget is yet to be confirmed and quite early I believe. Still early stages and lacking a lot of details but good step in the right direction. IMO, DYOR
500m budget- https://www.offshorewind.biz/2024/01/25/offshore-wind-projects-worth-gbp-500-million-move-forward-in-scotland/
45 projects - https://www.offshorewind.biz/2024/04/02/sowec-expands-priority-list-adds-seven-projects-to-sim-funding-round/
Since when did Hebridean9 make posts based on facts?
Hebridean9 ref 11.29 post On what factual basis is this based on. As I posted a few weeks back the total of loans to be used for investment and investment from SOWEC amounts to over £300m. Of this only as far as I am aware £92m will be loans based on an exchange rate of 0.80USD to the GBP. In addition there is support in getting renewables contracts which would bring in work.
I would observe that we do not know the basis on which Ministerial approval was given for a 100% guarantee fir the UKEF funding. In my opinion there must have been evidence that it would bring in jobs and contracts exceeding the amount of the loan.
Keep your short on and be ready to lose your shirt
Don't be so sure, first there was Carillion, now Petrofac, HARL with no finance deal will be next.
IM >>> finance announcement. In that order.