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I've consistently pointed out that OCDO has been in an upward trend this month, HKK: you do like to spin things to suit your narrative. Unless they have traded in the meantime, genuine LT investors in OCDO are still down 16% since the FY results which is still 'bad' but just not 'sooo bad' as it was four weeks ago.

OCDO’s immediate challenge, resistance at around 432, did see the sp repelled today: https://invst.ly/15px1i but, although the sp tested down to 402, it closed back above 410 which leaves it well placed to make a second attack IF there’s still enough sentiment behind it. So the three week positive daily trend remains well intact.

From a chart perspective, the fact that it is meeting two coincidental challenges (the three year red downward trend and the 432 resistance) does make progress a relatively tough challenge and I would not ordinarily bet on it advancing above them both at this stage. That reflects my previously stated personal view that it is currently overpriced and my decision to remain ‘out’ in case of a pullback. However, the 15’ trading view, with volume, 8/20 EMA and three week trend (green) continued to look reasonably optimistic at tonight’s close:

https://invst.ly/15pyew

The market is near a decision point and smart investors will pay close attention to which direction it takes over the next ten days.

The market does do the talking, HKK, and smart investors pay attention, especially when it changes its mind.

Re HKK's points:

1 Compare that chart to last June to August 🤔:

Why? Last summer’s rise was mainly driven by the AMZ rumour plus conclusion of the AStore dispute. This year appears to be due to improving retail performance, tech revenue and continuing faith in the 'jam tomorrow'. line.Totally different scenarios.

2 Who cares about a divi - other shares out there if you need income vs reward?:

Everyone ultimately needs either capital gain or a divi unless they are happy to lose value through inflation: OCDO has delivered capital gain when bought and sold at the right times in the past but, if held for too long, it has always ‘gone off’ like food with a sell-by date. Maybe this time around will be different.

3. So your green uptrend line is showing a target of 460 in the next few weeks? :

A trend in isolation doesn't show a target: an sp is rising within a trend until it isn’t - which sometimes indicates a good ‘sell’ or 'buy' point. There’s a red trend and a couple of potential resistance levels to cross before it gets to 460. Sentiment is obviously strong at present but it won't last indefinitely .

A superb rise today and at reasonable volume. So, well done for holders who’ve been convinced this would fly from the depths below 330. I was not around to reenter at that point and lost interest in doing so as it advanced through the very volatile days of 15th-17th, around my ‘top reentry price’ of 365 . That volatility, together with my increasing doubts about the fundamentals caused me to stay out and, now that it has progressed more steadily above 410 and is approaching a key testing trend I won’t be buying for the long term , although I’m interested to see how that next challenge goes, assuming shorts progressively unwind. Today’s tiny gap to 390.5 might prove to be a minor fly in the ointment given the current surge - with perhaps just a brief spike back down to fill it. The sooner it’s filled the better IMV. https://invst.ly/15of8k . As a trading share I might continue to dabble in OCDO for small money but, with no prospect of a divi, reducing upside and a few remaining uncertainties, it’s now moved above what I’d pay for it as a LTH.

Key message in the article was this quote from AJBell:

“Ocado needs to make a habit of regularly producing results like these if it is to properly win back the market’s favour. That may not be easy. Sustained improvements are the only ways to make the critics put away the knives they’ve been sharpening for some time… Ocado cannot sit comfortably until it wins more contracts and builds scale.”

Meanwhile the sp's daily trend remains up but is hitting a ceiling at the 400 resistance: https://invst.ly/15nqwo , so perhaps levelling out about 20p above April's price range. Given the HY results pointing to negative cash flow for the next two years, is there any reason to suppose it might rise further in the short term?

Thanks Qantas. It is certainly a bullish alternative view to Bernstein but, importantly, Morningstar’s equity strategist Michael Field qualified their target of 920p, saying: The assumptions on most of the revenues and profits we're talking about here are coming way into the future….

So maybe not a divi generator tomorrow?

Morningstar has apparently assumed potential growth of online sales as a proportion of the wider online grocery market will reach 25 per cent by 2040.

So we could be half way there? Online sales made up 13.1 per cent of total UK grocery market share last year [according to a reference to research agency Mintel in the article], with the OCDO group's share of the online market growing to 8 to 10 per cent. DYOR

There’s been a steady underlying upward trend (green) throughout July to date, despite the decidedly brittle performance of highs attacking 400 - but today's close poses the question 'will 390 mark the bottom tomorrow?'

https://invst.ly/15muui (15' view)

There have been some excellent trading runs this week, with a couple of 50p per day opportunities.

Shorts remain just above 7%, with Blackrock notably increasing on Monday. Not too surprising in a potentially volatile period if handled right. Shorts reducing to 4% should ultimately mark progress towards a healthier normality for LTH’s.

400 represents the current barrier to progress in that direction. Maybe tomorrow will see a firmer response to the HY results than the past couple of days have suggested.

Interesting that there's only one post in this thread that addresses the supposed subject of Value - which is what Investing is all about.

Even the usual twadle about 'belief' and 'patience' needs to be supported by numbers. Every day my cash sits somewhere it is losing value unless that investment is either increasing in value or earning a dividend. OCDO can and has done this BUT only if it is bought at the right time and sold at the right time. As a long-term prospect it may yet hit the targets that believers religiously adhere to but reality shows that that is currently down to chance. Today's value is today's price: there is potential upside and potential downside. The tech side of OCDO is on a still developing platform (in both tech and financial terms) within a limited market (it's not a mass market product like a car or a mobile phone), the retail side is, like most retail, a tough slog in an ever changing and competitive environment. Nerds might like robots and reasonably assume they are the future but developed economies with big populations don't actually need them until they figure out how to keep everyone happy and content without the basic prospect of a job stacking shelves and delivering stuff. Patience is a virtue until it becomes an open ended and convenient excuse for doing nothing when indications show a fair degree of uncertainty and risk - at that point it becomes a gamble and should be recognised as such.

Sorry for the lack of capitals - my last post inadvertently contained a rude four letter **** word buried within perfectly polite English which had to be censored.

following the 2023 fy results, ocdo’s market value fell to a reasonably flat but volatile range of +/- 20p centred around 360. sobeys news and a related analyst re-rating pushed the price sharply below 340 but the hy results have confirmed the fundamentals and, despite further analyst reassessments, market consensus has restored the price to the broad but essentially flat range established in april: https://invst.ly/15mlke . this will be challenged by a significant long-term trend as september approaches.

with no immediate prospect of net profit or dividend, long term investment in ocdo must inevitably continue to be based on perceived future value, remaining sensitive to news and the subject of heated debate around well rehe****d arguments on both sides. volatility within the current range offers trading opportunities for those prepared and able to monitor it closely.

Spot on Pokerchips!

Cheers Owls!

trying to insert a thumbs up emoji here: 👍

I returned home tonight to dig out this chart on the day’s final outcome: https://invst.ly/15lpbq and yes, it was disappointing but, as cureboy will surely be suspecting, it’s not far off what I thought could happen (or ‘fit my narrative’ as he might phrase it). Having been away and missed the opportunity that msuk first spotted a couple of weeks back, as the sp started to accelerate from sub 300 to 380, I think today’s drop back below 380 either marks a temporary profit-taking pull-back or a more sober market assessment of OCDO’s balance sheet and immediate prospects as the figures get scrutinised and absorbed. It was hard to find reference to the MKS final payment issue wasn’t it? It continues as a trivialised £28m buried away in note 9 of the Consolidated Finance section. After all, OCDO is happy to invest £11m (fair value) into Wayve, because a few million is not a big deal really when cash discipline ain’t that important. It’s not like debt is an issue is it?

As a potential investor (after taking my diminishing profits to the emergency exit after MS Bank’s rerating hit) I now have to figure out, in the absence of any immediate dividend prospects, whether prospective capital growth or trading is going to reward me sufficiently to get back on board this still risky boat. For me, the jury remains out on that but, although I think recent analysts have finally grasped what Exane highlighted a year ago, I am inclined to think that a sub 340 return is looking less likely than a week ago (so I’m not entirely in Valueplay’s camp, even though we are obviously workmates at Bernstein’s and the devil’s disciples according to all the conspiracy believers here). GLA.

It’s too early in the day to make much comment but its been good to see results which didn’t tank the sp and which initially pushed it above the April-June trading range of 340-380: https://invst.ly/15ld2a , The day’s volume looks set to be above average with half the day’s trading and closing auction yet to come. Yesterday’s ‘Bernstein drop’ was negated at the open, so it just remains for the dust to settle as the information released is digested and the market considers whether OCDO merits a more permanent lift above 380 and a challenge to the resistance at 410. I think tonight’s closing price could give a strong indication and hopefully continue July's recovery.

Owls, as you once wisely said: 'Don't listen to any amateur on a forum.'

You quoted Sharepad where you say the average target price is '676 based on 14 brokers.'

Are they brokers or analysts ?

Did Sharepad list the analysts and are the analyst's 'target price' publication dates for OCDO within the last fortnight ?

Were Bernstein, Morgan Stanley and Exane amongst the 14 analysts? I think their average would currently be about 285, which makes a 676 average rather difficult to achieve if their numbers are included.

NGC asked earlier: Last week they [Bernstein] rated at 1000 and now rerates to 250…What did I miss over the weekend?.

Because Cureboy has apparently deduced who I work for, I can reveal that the 1000 rating was published prior to the Sobeys news.

Bernstein have said that given the slower uptick in demand, it was making cuts to its model and reducing the price target. It thinks Ocado will need "significant" additional capital (£0.5bn to £1bn) on top of refinancing £1.45bn debt over the next two to three years and that Ocado needs to seriously rethink its options. It needs to consider whether it's right to be a public equity and what it could do to reduce cash burn in the short term.

Insider knowledge that everyone (including me) discovered today.

RetireGuy, referring to day-traders: ‘some will DEFINATELY (sic) have had considerable losses from a FALL OF 2880P TO 280P ….

Day traders would, by definition, not have been exposed to the same levels of losses as LTH’s

because they can still turn a profit even when the prevailing longer term trend is downwards providing they stay at their desk. LTH’s, on the other hand, who never touch or manage their shares, are more exposed to that level of loss. But how many would have held continuously throughout that dramatic fall over three years - with a few escape points along the way? OCDO, like most shares, is not a wise choice for LTH’s who don’t monitor the sp using tools that track the price and indicate when it turns the wrong way.

50p (15% or more) for the smart ones though.

Yes BT - as I said last week, it rose too fast IMO after it recovered above 310 whilst I was away. I’d expected something more in line with the green 15’ trend here (which happens to run very close to the 100 MA you mention). https://invst.ly/15kx9y

Having missed the boat then and seeing the volatility since, I’ll continue with my plan to sit back and see what tomorrow brings. It’s only worth getting on a passing bus if it’s going in the right direction. The problem with OCDO is that you never know in advance when it’s going to get diverted - at least a chart tells you when it’s going off course.

When did Bernstein issue that rating NGC - where did you read it? Very often ratings are quite old.

The latest rating date given in the TiPranks list quoted by HKK in the other thread is 28th June.

My capital P is deliberate, btw.

Of 9 ratings, TiPranks have therefore not included today’s Bernstein (who get a 4* analyst rating btw), which was supporting TiPrank’s 518 average, which I now estimate should be adjusted to 435 max.