Member Info for Boyobach

Nearly sub 300? 281 may actually have been and gone already: https://invst.ly/159rbc

It’s always important to weigh the proportionality of the market’s reaction to news. OCDO investors are apparently quite excitable.

With no change to FY24 guidance and no issues reported today by Kroger for Q1: https://www.streetinsider.com/PRNewswire/Kroger+Reports+First+Quarter+2024+Results+and+Reaffirms+Guidance/23376736.html

it'll be interesting to see if the sp remains suppressed as OCDO's HY results approach.

VP: the fact that you cannot name even one competitor indicates that there aren't many that match the type of system that OCDO produces. Warehouse robotics/automation covers a wide variety of product picking/handling /distribution systems. Many companies fit the category but most that I've found (and I have researched it ) do not provide an equivalent platform or system. I'll therefore take your response as 'don't know any equivalents'.

Regarding McKesson, it is the largest pharmaceutical distributor in Canada and the deal is structured differently - capital light for OCDO - which seems like a good move given your concerns about cash flows. I accept that you may have good reason for being selective but to state 'no orders in over a year' is incorrect.

I think that Blackrock should be a good indicator, unlike Millenium - which appeared somewhat inconsistent around the end of May. Yesterday's 0.08% reduction looks proportionate in relation to their increase when the sp fell to the current range on 16th April and suggests that, after two months they are seeing the downward pressure lifting very very slightly: https://invst.ly/159eba

VP says: Well over a year now when Ocado received a new order for an automated CFC from a new or existing partner. Competitors meanwhile are signing up other grocers and moving ahead….

Please name a competitor (excluding Autostore)

Why doesn’t the McKesson deal made last November qualify as a new order?

This video: https://youtu.be/QI_9WZbOf3o?si=ZaP50QoiiiTcrKhf provides a useful warning about some of the ramping and social media hype that PI’s should be wary of if they invest on the basis of crowd induced expectations rather than proven results and fundamentals. Note. in particular, the references to beating hedge funds by concerted action even though they might ultimately be proved correct in their analysis. Also, the reference to CEO bonuses that exceed a company’s net profit levels - which should never happen, of course.

It's been weaving either side of 355 for two months now - no sign of that changing imminently or as a result of the retail data today: https://invst.ly/158y2y

Kroger Q1 results are out in three days so your homework is to submit an essay on the likely effect (if any) this may have on OCDO.

Having increased his short position today, I guess VP may have a view. My own is ‘nil effect’. Here’s the US co’s sp history against MKS, arbitrarily rebased to 2018 and with all trend lines in parallel: https://invst.ly/158idz

Did you want to see Kroger v OCDO? OK, here it is: https://invst.ly/158iuo (rebased slightly differently to March 2019). Not a lot of influence, I’d say.

Convincing rationale from avocet there, tough to counter that one.

Chartwise nothing significant changed today as far as I can see: https://invst.ly/158h3v

HereKitttyK will hopefully see that I’ve made sure there is a positive green trend in this 15’ chart, along with an equally undeveloped red trend. I’m not pushing either as significant at this stage and my view remains that OCDO seems likely to continue along the current horizontal channel, centred roughly near 355 (say 340 - 370), until something tangible tips the balance. Short or Long? I hold shares so leaning towards long but, as someone recently suggested, I’ll jump off the fence in an instant if I seem likely to lose money (as should any PI in anything).

I hope you are right SJN1.I’m inclined to agree about the bottom being reached but regarding a ‘breakout’ I’m not so sure we’ll see anything that dramatic.In any case, there’s nothing immediate to breakout from.The green ? trend here https://invst.ly/157sxq is about the best I envisage, whilst a prolonged crawl horizontally in the 350-380 region until it meets the red down trend seems more likely to me. Much will depend on the HY results - they could be ‘stunning’ of course. GLA

Here is a simple sp comparison between OCDO and Autostore, the robotics rival against which OCDO won their patent litigation last year. This is a rebased comparison of their sp’s which assumes they were broadly equivalent in performance up to the end of last year: https://invst.ly/157kzj (the price scale gives OCDO's values).

What are your thoughts about this comparison? Autostore, which has no retail business as far as I’m aware, is now at about half its 2022 peak stock value and has declined by 25% in value since last December. OCDO, meanwhile, is down by approximately 50% this year. Neither are doing brilliantly but one is certainly looking more solid than the other. Is OCDO's lacklustre performance due entirely to difficulties with the retail side of the business?

Yes - two roughly 'matching' 550k share volumes (sell followed by buy) traded around 2.50pm according to this (5' chart): https://invst.ly/1570fk with virtually no effect on the ongoing market price.

Volume was back to normal today, 3.27m overall and a 706k UT.

Sp up 2.2p to 351 and out from under the red trend that was pushing it down towards 340: https://invst.ly/156yz3

340 hasn’t been tested in three weeks . Looking steady.

OK HKK - I get where you are coming from. I actually avoid trying to make over-confident predictions with charts because I don’t like hype and, for me, they are primarily indicative rather than predictive. I also don't feel they are currently providing strong signals either up or down. The sp has clearly been at a potential 'bottom' for a couple of months and seems to be on the boundary between recovery and an unwelcome drop lower. So, like all financial decisions, I feel it’s best considered as dispassionately as possible. ATB.

HKK: I currently hold OCDO shares for the long term but do trade them as necessary (as all investors should) to optimise their book cost. When I post here I always endeavour to show any relevant trends, whether rising or falling, that I find.

There are no significant upward trends on my current daily chart because the sp has essentially fallen to near the historic low of 340 for the last couple of months. If you can see an existing rising trend that I've missed on this chart of 2024 then please tell me where it is and I'll make a correction: https://invst.ly/156r9y

What upward trend is that HKK? 365 is just the top of the current trading range, which is nominally 340 to 365: https://invst.ly/156p8p

I'd hardly call that a bounce.

These and previous OTC high volume trades declared after hours (like those on 31st May) have been discussed on other threads where the conclusion here has been that they are probably related to institutional balancing, possibly driven by the move of OCDO from the FTSE100, rather than shorts closing.

Clarification: Yesterday’s high volume trades totalling 37.3m, representing 90% of the day’s volume and which were not declared until after the day’s closing auction UT, were all recorded at a price of 350p. The first 6m were recorded at 14.37 when the market sp was around 360 and the market price began to fall (perhaps coincidentally) shortly afterwards, eventually closing at the UT price of 348.9p. So the overall impact of those trades, if any, upon the market price does not appear to have been great but is also not as easily determined as I suggested.

So another high volume day - 10m up on yesterday at 41m and, again, a lot of those (around 37m) declared or transacted after the UT of just over 1.25m. Various chats here have pointed towards the possibility that this activity is due to institutional balancing driven by the move of OCDO from the 100, which seems to be our best guess currently. Despite the high volume, the overall impact on the closing sp of these trades has been relatively mild so far (2p yesterday and 3p today). The sp has now fallen for three consecutive days and the last fortnight’s trend from 410 remains downward, which is certain to test the two month support level of 340 by the weekend if it continues : https://invst.ly/156fpa

Neilhumphreys: 'After 24 years there are now 100s of companies in their space.'

Could you name five (excluding Autostore) with similar robotic picking and individual customer fulfilment capabilities?

Agreed regarding the UT volume Corry - this site (L SE) has the UT as 1.63m. As you say, a high number of late reported trades which actually occurred early afternoon but not registered until after the close. Thanks for pointing this out.