Member Info for Boyobach

Going back to tonight’s UT volume of 35.4m : I believe that could represent over 4.25% of the issued shares (DYOR to verify that). If so, I reckon it would be about twice the size of any of the individual published shorts (Do not rely on these numbers they are quick calculations and may be incorrect).

TBF, today's total volume (given as 45.5m) - if correct - is quite astonishing, here's 6 years with daily volume at the bottom:

https://invst.ly/151lr8

Next nearest seems to be 39m in May 2018.

I'm not sure what to make of that. It could be an error.

35.4m shares, £132m value. It was marked as a sell because the end of day auction ended at below the ask price immediately prior to the auction. Just remember that for every sell there is a buy (even if the buyer is a dealer). The label can be very misleading and is best ignored - just look at the volume of trades and whether the price went up or down.

Volatility either side of the BH Weekend disrupted OCDO’s short term picture but has not altered the wider view very much. Having pulled back sharply on Wednesday from the week’s high, the sp initially fell below the two month red trend here: https://invst.ly/151l04 before recovering above it the next day, with a potential green trend (dashed line) beginning to appear. The 15’ trading chart provides a more nuanced picture, which indicates that the risk of further pressure on 340 has receded this week with the battle for support shifting to 365 and a promising break out from this week’s falling trend occurring this afternoon, before the close brought it back down onto the trend line at 373: https://invst.ly/151kyc I eventually bought back earlier, near today’s 359 low.

Net published shorts have risen to 8.3%, with Millenium’s increase almost matching Kintbury’s reduction on Wednesday and with an additional 0.1% yesterday, making them the third largest after Blackrock and D1.

I think Rob was referring to the JPM 450 rating, Stupmy, which triggered the rise on Friday and which, IMO along with whoknowswhy, assisted a very effective professional pump and dump cycle. Apart from being a very profitable cycle for them, it has shaken confidence in the event of a future increase - so a very effective strategic move. As Valueplay points out, OCDO is now back under the falling trends and I would add that I think it is weaker as a result of the spike. I don't think ramping - like we see here - has anything like that much influence. Anyway - it pushes OCDO down to a level where I feel recovery really depends on results rather than gossip and speculation - which kinda suits me.

If the rally was mainly driven by pent-up demand then why would the price have dropped back to 365? I can understand a partial pull back due to profit taking but a total retrace to below Friday's close does not make sense if it was driven by genuine demand. I'm frankly ok with what happened as it provided an unexpected trading gain but, as someone more interested in longer term prospects than trading. I'd like to be more certain of the mechanism that drove the bank holiday spike. It feels like shorter activity to me but, of course, I can't prove that was the case. I consequently handle this share with extreme caution.

I did wonder if I'd regret being out by yesterday's close but for me there was little immediate upside remaining compared to the morning's gain, after which the sp had levelled out for the whole afternoon giving me time to think.

I recall noting here that 'if most of the buying during the rally has gone to shorts then look out' but I'd placed that in the context of a dump following disappointing HY Results, rather than immediately - so it did happen rather sooner than I'd anticipated and I didn't discover today's drop until this evening. Shorts provide profitable cycles but they are not always easy to catch perfectly.

https://invst.ly/150iib

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HKK: 'Go here if you want up to date data'

The shorttracker site isn't updated until after the market has closed with, at best, changes that took place on the previous trading day, which was Friday 24th in the latest report, updated at 16.49 this afternoon.

Interesting to see that AHL increased their short position on Friday by 0.09%. I usually tend to think short funds are smart and it's risky betting against them but that looks inexplicable given news of the JPM rating and the strong market direction that day.

Looking at a 15’ trading view of OCDO’s rally from 335 on Thursday up to apparent resistance at 410 today, it’s been almost continuous, with just a couple of setbacks on the way: https://invst.ly/14-zb6

Having reached 405 by 11.30 this morning, the sp flattened out significantly, only adding about 5p during the rest of the day. However, it did close just above 410 and, as there are no immediate signs of a pullback, it appears that 410 could now become a support level for a further push upwards..

Correction: I misread the Arrowhead short: they increased to 0.52% on May 23rd, so they are not now 'under the radar' as I said.

This morning’s trading thankfully continued Friday’s rally without creating another OCDO gap up. Looking at a 15’ trading chart the early enthusiasm has cooled off, along with volume, as some inevitable profit taking took place and more wary investors weighed JPM’s neutral upside against risk as the sp rose above 400: https://invst.ly/14-tuw

What might the afternoon bring?

For every buy there is a sell. It's just a rough indication of whether the deals are conducted whilst the price is rising or falling.

It will be interesting to see how the list of published short positions over 0.05% reacts. Millennium and Gladstone were increasing on the 23rd when the sp was below 358, so my assumption would be that they have not done too well out of those. Kintbury and Arrowhead reduced, the latter moving back below the radar. Around half the shorts were in place before mid March, so arguably above the 450 level - and who knows what trading they have conducted with their borrowed shares in the meantime, as the number just shows a net borrowing of stock. One has to assume that the smarter ones will have made trading profits and bought back in advance of today’s increase, so they should be able to reduce their position at any time whilst retaining their profit. Of course, if most of the buying during the rally has gone to shorts then look out if the HY results are disappointing.

PI: I don’t think it matters to the shorters if OCDO was ‘on its knees’ at the near seven year low of 335 or that they failed by not pushing the price lower. This is because I think that the shorting funds’ main objective is to make money rather than to bring a share price down to its knees, even though that is often a consequence of their activities. I happen to think that they probably have been very successful here.

In crude terms, my understanding is that shorting funds actively trade the shares they’ve borrowed, using techniques that encourage falls in a vulnerable stock. This enables them to buyback at a lower price, ideally within a trading day. They are then ready to repeat the process when the next opportunity presents itself, even if the price has risen in the meantime. My assumption is that they’ve already made a good profit over the last few months and have restocked at lower price levels than Friday’s close so that they are not exposed when the market reopens on Tuesday.They can then react according to how the market moves. If the rally continues they will be ready to either continue the shorting process as and when the market conditions seem favourable, or to close their position if they feel there isn’t much more to be gained because the price is in a longer term rising trend, thus making the task more risky and less profitable. Isn’t that how it works?

Phoenixy: For me, the next red trend that OCDO would encounter is the right hand one here: https://invst.ly/14-6un which crosses below 500 around the 18th June and, rather more importantly, crosses below 456 on the 16th July (HY Results day) - as marked. For context you might want to see where that trend originates, so here’s a much wider view which shows it can be traced back a couple of years: https://invst.ly/14-6a6 . That’s the trend - and different people might draw them slightly differently but they aren’t usually open to too much artistic licence.

How they are assessed as a risk, however, can depend very much on one’s opinions: I’m more optimistic than Valueplay but neither do I see the sp rocketing to 500 in the next couple of months. My personal view is that if OCDO fails to satisfy reasonable expectations (like fixing the MKS issues, sorting the JV dispute and demonstrating financial discipline etc etc) then that red trend will represent an increasing threat. The HY Results could therefore be critical, IMV, in determining how high the sp rises prior to them and whether that trend remains unbroken after them. Additionally, even if Friday’s rally continues at pace, there is resistance on the chart at around 470, which might mark the ceiling until July 16th. Oh - and wasn’t JPM’s ‘neutral’ target just below the trend at 450? That’s a helluva coincidence too.

With short positions increasing yesterday, unknown to us at the time, this morning’s opening 15 minutes had all the hall-marks of another dump. Then today’s kick upwards started and, if it continues on Tuesday, the very significant red-trend here will be broken: https://invst.ly/14zu-o .

‘If’ is the key word here because the shorts are probably not finished and will undoubtedly have reloaded through yesterday and topped up, if necessary, early in the rally. I’m sure they avoid sailing against the wind so today’s upward push was probably strong enough for them to abandon the downward push that marked the opening https://invst.ly/14zygx (15’ trading chart) . However, having presumably reloaded following Thursday’s 332 low, I wouldn’t be surprised if the shorts have another go on Tuesday if the market wind is blowing in a favourable direction.

The valuation as it stands is for the UK supermarket business..... which, including Logistics, I believe accounts for more than 80% of revenue and around 70% of EBITDA (Don't rely upon or quote these figures without confirming them) . So whatever market OCDO is listed on, those ratios would probably reflect the investment profile of the Group. Would being on NASDAQ benefit a UK company, pretty much unknown in the states, that is less than 20% Technology with the largest element a low margin grocer?

Of course, if the retail bit (including logistics) is sold off then the much smaller Group would have the Tech profile you are talking about and a reasonable cash balance from the sale proceeds. Would shareholders get a special distribution from the sale proceeds after all these years? Ha Ha! Dream on...

Until then, it is what it is and markets, on either side of the pond, will view it accordingly

That rating may have arrived in the nick of time, because the 15' trading trend for this week was on a steeper downward slope: https://invst.ly/14zng6

I imagine that dump and pump works best when pushing against open doors. There can be little to gain by dumping at a level which absorbs the dumped shares without the price dropping much further or, worse, bouncing up before you’ve fully reloaded because the market starts to pile in. Weak supports that break quickly are easy and profitable to exploit but I guess stronger ones become progressively less worthwhile to attack - especially if there’s a sweet spot range, like 335-360, that accommodates an easily repeatable low risk cycle.