Member Info for Boyobach

That's a year old rating Qantas?

Exane's analysis late last September , which caused a dive in sp , proved to be correct target-wise and, unlike HSBC's recently, was influential. I'll be interested to see what Exane say this year after the H1 results.

As pump and dumps go, Friday’s effort was a bit lame in that it didn't challenge 342, which hasn’t been punctured for three weeks now despite the sp being under fairly continuous pressure and an obvious shorting target: https://invst.ly/14t9lo . So, whilst 335 remains a distinct possibility it isn’t inevitable and the likelihood reduces with each failed attempt. Previous support levels at 500 and 432, for example, crumbled quickly at the second attempt.

Gavin Patterson was certainly controversial during his period as BT CEO, apparently because of his pursuit of commercial results rather than regulatory compliance. In many ways he was the wrong person for that role in that organisation. In the time since then he’s been in demand elsewhere and his work at Salesforce, involving CRM and SaaS, may be areas of experience that OCDO wants to tap into. Looking at his salary and appointments elsewhere it doesn’t look as if OCDO will be a major focus of his attention. He also doesn’t seem stick around anywhere for long since BT - so any input from him will probably be more about change and strategy rather than long term implementation and development (which is possibly why BT was not the place for him). It’s also probably just as well that he isn’t in an exec role.

Three weeks of levelling out continues (15' view): https://invst.ly/14sauz

Previous ones have ended badly, of course, and there is a red trend incoming over the next few weeks -https://invst.ly/14sbmw - so counting chickens shouldn't begin just yet. However, all the negative news should be out there and priced-in until the HY Statement in July . No further increase in shorts declared for yesterday.

It's hard to say what D1's targets/objectives are/were. In theory I guess they increased their shorts at around 370 on Tuesday - so job done potentially given yesterday's UT price at 25p lower . We have to wait for the afternoon and closing UT to see the full day's cycle, but so far there hasn't been much of a drive down to 342. Bit of a yawn really, especially as lonlon had convinced me it was going to hit 335 (LoL). MKS doing very nicely since October, I doubt they'll have too many complaints about the JV, especially if they agreed or requested the revised contract changes and, in doing so, get out of the final payment. https://invst.ly/14s38v

A potentially positive appointment to the Board of Gavin Patterson as an Independent Non Exec.

I see D1Capital upped their short stake yesterday and are now at 1.92%.

I wonder who was mopping up in tonight’s below market price auction?

So far, this year’s first attack on 342 inflicted more damage than #2, with much higher volumes involved early on than in last year’s single attempt: https://invst.ly/14rifb . The volumes had been tapering off, apart from last Thursday's kick. However D1 are obviously keen to give it another go and three attempts seems fair enough - although it usually only needs two. If the third doesn’t succeed it’ll start to look like flogging a dead horse. I guess if you happen to be a short looking to close out an increased position from a rival can be something of a gift.

This is better than watching the snooker, especially for those who are ready to make the best of either outcome.

Well, like I said, it’s when the big boys play that you need to take notice and tonight’s UT took the price down by another 3.7p. Volume was ramping up towards the end https://invst.ly/14rgoe but the auction dwarfed the 15’ daytime segments by over a million.

And, to put today’s after market in context, let’s widen the view to include last Thursday’s: https://invst.ly/14rgr9

More fun tomorrow!

Yep. It was bound to get entertaining. Still, the kids play during market hours mostly - very low volumes can tilt the price sharply. It's when the big boys play it gets really interesting. There's clearly some effort to knock it down from 358 and it also looks like a lot of sellers below 350 may have been hoovered up. It could be a fun week. It's a total game, fundamentals are out of the window for now I think. I shouldn't think D1Capital are set to walk away soon.

Looking at this 15’ trading view, https://invst.ly/14r6jo it appears that last week’s fight to hold 342 has moved up to 358. The high volume after hours UT and trades last Thursday (arrowed) seem to have kick started the move, which overshot to 380 (well done to those that caught that opportunity). It’ll be interesting to see how D1Capital and the other shorts handle this. 342 is looking pretty safe now, although there’s a long term red trend incoming by the end of the month.

Very good points GfG. I think that a rerating of Shel v OP was due but I’m starting to sense that that re-rating could be overdone, which will ultimately lead to a correction. During April there seemed to be a consistent market upgrade of Shel’s sp but over the last couple of weeks (roughly since the marker here: https://invst.ly/14r2jq ) OP has drifted down whilst Shel’s sp has remained near the maximum and I wonder if the market has taken its eye off the ball - perhaps assuming that OP is destined to return to higher levels. I’m almost out of Shel now as it was prudent to lock-in my accumulated gains of the last five years. I will progressively return as the picture clears. ATB

Those are intraday trading gaps. No gaps on the daily chart to be filled: https://invst.ly/14qczw

However, a return to those levels seems fairly likely for other reasons.

It could turn out similar to what happened about three weeks ago: https://invst.ly/14q6sa

Because the trading hours for Shel and Brent are different, daily charts which compare the two can be slightly off because they use closing prices which are hours apart. This hourly chart of Brent since late January gives a more synchronised picture of the two:

https://invst.ly/14ps3v .

What is particularly striking is the divergence between the two that began in late March, with Shel now roughly 15% up on its price relative to Brent in mid March. At that time, $84 Brent would have been compatible with an sp of around 2500 rather than Friday's 2870. This does indicate that a revaluation of Shel has been in progress since the FY results and the question then becomes how permanent is it?

Well any notion that it might be temporary is probably mistaken, given a six year comparison of Shel against Brent: https://invst.ly/14ptc6 which shows that Shel’s sp is only now back at an equivalent level to that which existed prior to the OP War of early 2020 and COVID, which together caused the dividend cut and collapse in sp to below £10.

It's all looking good for Shel right now.

Is the sp still dropping? It briefly hit 335 intraday about a fortnight ago but has averaged 350 since. Indeed a trading 15’ view shows the pressure lifting slightly https://invst.ly/14ox-4 .

Truth is that it’s no longer dropping unless and until it goes below 335 again, which could be less likely given the above picture, which is showing less time spent below 350 and even potential for another visit to 387 if the pattern repeats.

The overall position is rather better than it was last June at a similar sp but prior to the AS settlement, the improving half year statement and the AMZ takeover nonsense that clouded the scene for the rest of the year.

There’s still plenty of cash and the earliest convertible bond maturity is over 18 months away in December 2025 which, like all such facilities, is expected to be refinanced as a matter of routine, given the latest reliable revenue and earnings. There’ll be plenty of warning if things are going off track - so no need to panic just yet.

Would dropping out of FSE100 be a bad thing? The FTSE 250 shares historically provide more growth whilst FTSE 100 shares typically provided more income (full of low growth, dividend payers). Which fits OCDO’s profile better?

Investors who piled into this as a tech stock probably didn’t know their software from their hardware and thought it was either like ARM or like Amazon, so it’s not surprising if they had a shock seeing it drop from £30. It’s not going back to that level anytime soon but last year's 342 was probably a fair bottom - whilst 2.50 only represents a potential threat whilst the sp remains below 350, which may become less frequent as discussed above.

Revenue and earnings were up last year and losses are a tax technicality based on amortisation of past cap-ex investment. So, much of the worst may be over.

Stupmy: regarding your comment about BP as an example of UK share performance (this post is totally off topic regarding OCDO!)

I suggest you use Shel instead, for the simple reason that BP has had a tricky history since Macondo in 2010, its Green policy, its Russian assets and, more recently a dreadful Q3 2023 result which included a US project write down. They’ve also had major CEO issues and there’s been a lot of TO speculation. There may now be some upside to the share if they’ve got their act together again. Don’t forget also that Green issues affect companies more on this side of the pond.

Over 9m shares traded yesterday and just 3.4m today, yet the volatility was on a different scale: https://invst.ly/14otla (15min view of the two days)

Yesterday’s off market auction hoovered up a lot of shares that might otherwise have been sold below 350, which is interesting in the context of shorting action.

I guess It’s not surprising that there was some activity above 370 today, although the close ended at a more rational 355. The sp is certainly not clinging to that 342 bottom at the moment and the second attempt to break through it has failed: https://invst.ly/14ou2r (daily view). Will there be a third? I guess that partly depends on who acquired the bulk of yesterday’s 9m, especially the near 8m after hours , and what their objectives and targets are.

RetireGuy: Your question is about ‘buying back in’ but you also say ‘before I realise the loss’ which technically implies you still hold the shares. I’m assuming that you are in fact currently out of OCDO but haven’t yet walked away from reinvesting at the right price. You also mention ‘leverage down’ which could mean borrowing money to invest in the hope of recovering your losses. Given your past experience in controlling your investment in OCDO I don’t think you should be encouraged to compound your losses by taking on more risk, especially if that involves incurring debt. If you are only debating what to do with the last 15% then that’s somewhat simpler but even then it should firstly depend on whether you could put the remaining cash to better use. Only you will know that

If I’ve understood you correctly, it seems that if you had all the original cash back in your hand today you wouldn’t put any of it into OCDO? If that is true then it makes no sense to do so with the last 15%. However, if you still think OCDO has a genuine chance of significant recovery, have no better uses for the money and are prepared to risk further loss, then retaining some investment in OCDO may be a reasonable option. Every investment needs to be managed - to buy and forget is a bad approach. Selling portions on highs, topping back up on lows and offloading if it starts to fall below set limits are essential actions, especially with speculative and volatile shares. So you need to be prepared for that. Regarding the lowest price OCDO may achieve then, not forgetting zero, £2.40 is a possibility but that significant drop requires the sp to fall below the current support level at about 340. On that basis it may be wise to wait and see which direction the sp takes from the current level over coming weeks and whether the major short interests in it begin to unwind. It’s your cash, your choice.

Yeah, I use shorttracker. I don't think shorts have necessarily increased I think Nr 2 dropped back (I'm not sure if it was Kingfisher) Anyway, just be glad you don't hold PFC!! Shares suspended until auditors do some more work.

It'll be Interesting to hear what you made of today then Gioviano:

The price continued to look a bit manipulated to me today - still oddly trapped for much of the time below 346 and then released at an opportune time to ultimately trigger a very positive UT and closing price:

https://invst.ly/14o2p8 (15minute chart prior to close, highest volume shown 380k )

https://invst.ly/14o42g (same chart but including close - note the massive after hours volume 7.891M or 85% of the day’s trade)

On a daily chart it looks like this https://invst.ly/14o4fk with the day’s total volume at 9.274M, well above the current average of 5.9M.

I’m not complaining but it does look stage managed: 1) Was there a two day concerted attempt to push it below 340? and 2) Are any shorts closing because the attempt failed?

I dunno either!

Interesting to see that raised volume 15 mins of trading yesterday that I was talking about, seems to have established a 346 resistance level for traders currently. Let’s see if it becomes more significant. https://invst.ly/14npy8