Member Info for Boyobach

Yes- I haven't seen it but I'm not surprised. Investors aren't paying attention to the numbers. The problem is that the company's results - and its resources - are weighted to Retail . It's a company with two divergent objectives and a mixed message. It's not a brilliant strategy.

OCDO didn’t even manage to fully fill Monday’s gap to 249.40 today: https://invst.ly/14klsn and with another red trend incoming during May it may well be time to follow the old saying to sell and go away ‘till St Leger’s day.

If the sp does revisit and test 342 again, which seems highly possible, then I imagine that plenty of stop losses will be waiting to be tripped not much further below. Perfect for shorters to exploit.

Meanwhile Autostore is about 10% down since December, compared to OCDO’s near 50%: https://invst.ly/14kmpk but they are a tech company rather than an online grocer that does a bit of tech on the side.... (sorry just a wind-up comment - but I do think there's a problem with OCDO's tech branding and identity that needs to be fixed).

Ha Ha Stupmy! I can see into the future and I confidently predict that VP will still be pi55ing a lot of people off on this board for a good while yet!

However, I’m not one of them.

I should add that the two OTC trades in question pushed yesterday to the highest volume day for nearly five years.

Obviously, regarding 'buy or sell'- one entity bought and another entity sold: the market price was unaffected.

Treacle24 asked on another thread: Two £19 million trades have shown up late - are they buys or sells - views?

Well the two are listed as having occurred at 12.55.04 and 12.52.34 (ie over 4 hours earlier) respectively on 25thApril with a volume of 5,222,424 each at a price of 362.8 (unknown buy or sell but above the UT).

They appear as part of a single after hours entry in this 15 minute chart: https://invst.ly/14k2md which shows the last couple of weeks with volume scale at the bottom of the screen so that you can see the relative scale compared to normal volumes over the period..

Yes - but the JV will still exist. So, although M&S will report upon it, it will still be a significant part of OCDO's financial statement and valuation of the business. It will hopefully remove the 'inter segment eliminations' from the financial statements so that there's a clearer separation of Tech Solutions finance from OCDO Retail. It wasn't immediately obvious to me from the headline numbers. for example, how much of Tech Solutions' revenue came from external clients as opposed to OCDO Retail.

Sangijuelas: And there we go again [Assessing the strength of OCDO by the metric of the grocery sector]..

According to my understanding of the FY2023 Statement, OCDO is logically viewed primarily as a UK retailer, with the tech side of the business apparently only contributing about 420.5m of revenue out of a total of 2825m for 2023, ie around 15%. In terms of EBITDA, Technology Solutions appears to account for nearly 30%, with Retail and Logistics accounting for the remaining 70%. So, unless I am mistaken, moving to NASDAQ would not, on its own, change those metrics or the prevailing view of the Group. However, if Tech Solutions revenue continues to grow at last year's pace then the context for OCDO would undoubtedly change significantly.

Yes Stupmy, I'm not in deep - it's a pure punt and has been for a long time in my view.

I do think the tech has potential if marketed and managed appropriately. I also think retail has done a good job in testing circumstances and that the current management appear to be driving improvements in a tough market. But the lack of profitability in the tech side after many years is becoming deeply concerning.

It looks like HSBC just found the gap from over six years ago that I mentioned a week or two back. 264 would be my target in that region - https://invst.ly/14i-sa but it needs to fall into range first and that's not a certainty at this stage.

I'm rather neutral - comfortable either way thanks to recent trades but I note that HSBC had less impact on the price than Exane plus I am detecting a stronger vibe regarding retail and I'm anticipating a good statement from M&S in May. My doubts about the technology have also been lessened by some of the unconvincing and unsubstantiated comments here (and I'm not referring to VP). I don't mind the shorters - they help me get good value and their pump 'n dump pattern is great for trading once you get into the rhythm of it. Lot's of extreme views here - so it can be more entertaining than just checking the chart, even if it's not quite as reliable.

Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68639533

The sharp rise early Monday morning seems to have been linked to Jefferies’ rerating of M&S , for which it has a 310p price target. Jefferies said it ‘thinks the company is now a far stronger business than was historically the case built on an expansion of the food offer which is clearly resonating strongly,"

( https://invst.ly/14hsmi 15’ chart of M&S with OCDO red line)

Article at:

https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations/jefferies-upgrades-ms-next-and-sainsburys-to-buy--16635692.html

The first hour can often be a bit crazy - especially on a Monday. But ultimately the day wasn't too bad - shame the gap didn't fill but hopefully that technicality will get sorted quickly tomorrow and OCDO will head for 365+ again. https://invst.ly/14hpjz

Thanks for responding Retireguy - that clarifies an important point of context in your comments because it seems you aren’t criticising OCDO’s technology (the robotic hardware and software controlling it) so much as the need for it and/or the way it is applied. Those are two very different things. For example, you can have the best ‘state of the art’ robotic system but if it is unsuitable for the task and employed ineffectively then it doesn’t make sense business-wise - which I’m gathering is your main point.

The Netsuite link you provided primarily relates to management system effectiveness not robotics. So, as you didn’t point to a technically better robotic alternative to OCDO I assume that you don’t consider any existing robotics particularly effective in a warehouse application? If I’ve got that wrong then I’d obviously be interested in what robotic supplier you feel delivers a more efficient and effective automated warehouse system and which bits of the OCDO system you are classifying as ‘old tech’ (the operating system, control system or hardware).

Regarding grid based systems: I'm unaware of any system that would not use three dimensional coordinates (a grid) to locate a target within a given storage space. Drones are apparently used in some places for the fairly simple task of inventory monitoring but are not yet, as I understand it, used for picking and lifting large volumes within an enclosed warehouse. I guess this would present some significant additional challenges that have yet to be addressed to function at scale. But I stand to be corrected on that point. ATB

Retireguy: Regarding your point that Ocdo solutions is a static inflexible solution bathed in old tech…..

In your view, which warehouse systems are using more advanced technologies currently?

Resorting to personal comments rather than responding to facts and challenging comments or questions doesn’t contribute to the debate.

If a question is asked and one doesn’t have an answer then acknowledge the point and move on. Arguing about whether someone has ever used the word ‘shallow’ isn’t very enlightening. OCDO has strengths and weaknesses, which smart investors will weigh up for themselves dispassionately.

The sp ultimately depends on fundamentals and business performance, as investors who have held OCDO over the last three years have learned to their cost. Today the sp is more grounded in reality although there still appears to be more ‘jam tomorrow’ embedded in the price than realised profit, which is not good after all these years since IPO. OCDO’s sp still appears to be based on promise rather than tangible value - so it deserves tough scrutiny from both potential and actual investors.

One starting point for info:

https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0712/why-companies-change-exchanges.aspx#toc-how-does-switching-exchanges-affect-a-companys-shareholders

Interesting to note that NASDAQ might want to be sure of OCDO's prospects before accepting them. For instance, Nasdaq sets a $1 minimum price for a stock to remain listed . Apparently, if a company's stock falls below that threshold, technically becoming a penny stock, with all the negative connotations that implies, the clock starts ticking. (quote from Investopedia)

Yes indeed Stupmy.

It may not have regained 365 but at least it has found some support at last year’s low of 342:

https://invst.ly/14gskl

(NB regarding this daily chart: Investing.com appear to be showing an incorrect low for yesterday at 3.48 due to a misplaced decimal point! The intra-day low appears to have been 335. However the open and close are what counts in this context ).

Whether support now holds and it builds from here is another matter - but there's been some some good and positive debate about OCDO’s strengths and value on other threads here today.

Will they stop doing buybacks?

And how much cash have shareholder's missed out on since they cut the dividend?

For people who relied on that income it was quite a hit.

It's very difficult to assess the true value of buybacks to investors - is there a magic formula?

I think the theory is that an income investor should sell sufficient shares to top up the lost income and that the buybacks will maintain their overall value. I've never been convinced about that but could it be correct?

That's a very interesting and relevant article, Sangijuelas. This bit caught my attention:

'As for Ocado, they’re a company we used to hold before AutoStore became publicly traded. One reason we exited that position is because the exposure we were getting to their U.K. grocery business dwarfed the small exposure we were getting to robotics. With Ocado’s “Software and robotics platform” seeing 44% growth in 2023, that segment now represents 12% of total revenues, up from 9% in 2022. ' This accompanied a table showing Ocado’s recurring revenue model as 'optimal and profitable'.

@Valueplay: That isn't the CFC funding model for Kroger is it?