Member Info for Boyobach

Phoenixy: Whilst I think it's found some support there's no evidence of a reversal as yet IMO. Yesterday's candle appears to contain a data error - the day's low is given as 3.48 so I assume the decimal point is in the wrong place for a 348 entry. I think the actual low was 335.

That's a 15 minute chart msuk.

Up in top left next to OCDO, the number 15 gives the TF.

I almost always post either a 15 minute (trading TF) or a conventional daily chart.

As well as Pokerchips' points, CFRA acknowledge in respect of the spoke closures: ‘….these closures are relatively minor in the context of the potential CFC order pipeline…’ their point being that …’ they are perceived as a negative indicator of future performance’ So It’s perception rather than actual performance that is driving their comment. Exane rated OCDO at 390 last September and were much ridiculed on this board. Although Exane don’t look quite so dumb now, it would be equally true to say that the business has made progress since then.

Meanwhile, today was more volatile than yesterday for OCDO but at least it finished above the most recent red trend and effectively on par with yesterday’s high at 350 (the arrow points to the closing UT price ) https://invst.ly/14g5kd . It’s probably going to be a weak period for the sp until the MKS statement in May and the half year results in June but it may yet level out rather than falling back to, or much below, today’s low of 335 (just above the 330 low last seen in December 2017)

Typo correction:

I’ll be very happy indeed if I can match the annual dividend ....

Ha! the world is a mess GfG but it has always been so in the Middle East - effectively the middle of human conflict for millennia . If only God had managed his messengers a bit better and we'd all been on the same page eh?

Back to reality though: It’s interesting to see that, since 8th April, Shel’s sp ratio to OP has pushed upwards https://invst.ly/14g4d7 and Shel is now running quite hot in relation to it. I guess this might correct itself if Brent continues to drop back. I’m obviously assessing where my buyback target will be for the various tranches I’ve recently sold off as the price has risen. I reckon that today’s sp is about 175 above what it would have been at the same OP a month ago and I do think I’d start getting interested at about 2600 - a £3 per share gain on the last tranche I sold. I’ll be very happy indeed if match the annual dividend on half of my Shel from trading it within a single quarter - especially if I also get the divi too!! ATB

Boyo - are you quiet, because we've gone off the chart?

Apologies for not responding GfG - with Shel doing very nicely, I’ve been preoccupied with other stuff.

I’ve now sold most of my holding but still have a tiny number and will top back up if/when the opportunity presents itself.

It can’t really go off the chart because a chart is basically a record of what has happened - but it does become more difficult to identify likely resistance levels although there are various theories and tools that some use. I’ll be guided by OP movements, the trends and the ‘8,21 EMA’ blue and red squiggly lines shown here https://invst.ly/14fpze , which converge and cross at suggested ‘sell’ and ‘buy’ points. They are always a bit late though, coming after a given peak or trough.

ATB and GLA

From my perspective, as a holder again, today (Wenesday 17th) went well: the sp challenged the red trend (15’ view: https://invst.ly/14fo20 )that has held it back since 26th March (three weeks) and closed above it for the first time. Tomorrow’s open and subsequent price moves will hopefully confirm the break and stay above 342. If 342 holds till the weekend there’s a chance that OCDO may start to build from this level but, let’s face it, this is a fragile share at the best of times. Regaining 365 (which was a support now turned to resistance) would be a significant positive IMV. GLA

I'm not in favour of the petition either. Pro Shorters generally target overpriced sp's and drive them to a more appropriate value.

Phoenixy: From 10p off the share price to 20p off today...is that the change in trend ? ‘.....

Looking at the trend I’ve drawn here https://invst.ly/14f2f0 it’s dropping at about 15p/day which ties in with your numbers as an average. I think I previously said 10p/day in a post and accept I may have understated it. I do realise that it’s not possible to read off the numbers on the charts I post - the links are not interactive. I don’t think the trend has changed materially in the last few days - ie I don't think it’s getting worse. In fact, I’m hoping it will level out and I bought back yesterday-as posted - so I’m anticipating a level day today but I’m also prepared to bail if things start to go wrong. ATB

SFH300: You're certainly not alone in having had a painful time with stock market investment. It's a brutal and deceptive environment. All I would say is don't act in haste, step back and consider your options: If OCDO continues to slide then could the cash you might release by dumping it free you up to explore other possibilities? Selling at a loss is a tough decision to make - most of us have learned the hard way that we leave it far too long.and get drawn into the deadly mire of 'averaging down'.

Cheers Stupmy.

Yes - I think 238 could be dreadful for some on this board and, for that reason, I don't wish for it. However, if you are in the market you have to try and make it work for you as best you can. ATB meanwhile.

Well today was another win for the red trend: https://invst.ly/14exse , which was handy for me because I thought it would hit 342 at some point , so I exited last week around 400 and bought back today as it finally hit that level. I'll sell again if it makes it back over 365 or do a similar trick if it looks like 238 is incoming.- I'll just keep a small, reasonably constant, number of shares after each buy-back and try to shake some cash out with day trades whether it falls or rises. OCDO is turning me into a trader, scalping a few pence here and there on boring days .

Ideally I'll accumulate more seriously if/when OCDO establishes itself on a rising trend - although there's been no hint of that since Mr S stirred the 'MKS Legal Challenge' hornets nest. As you can maybe tell, OCDO has become more of a plaything than a serious investment as far as I'm concerned - I'll have fun with it rather than stress about the poor investor returns.

It’s had a few goes at breaking this trend… maybe today? https://invst.ly/14ep8r

The set-up looks similar to a fortnight ago (arrowed). It failed then but maybe this time…

I agree with PI_Winner about Motley but the last three months have been a car crash here, so in response:

1) Shorts (professionals) don’t sweat much: any share is only worth what the market will pay.

2) Focus on fundamentals: No profits anticipated for next three years, which will then be 17 years from IPO. (It ain’t exactly Tesla or ARM)

3) It’s still going down. Yes, it’s up 2.4p on Friday’s close - big deal - but not breaking any current negative trends and not one positive trend in sight.

4) Until it breaks the immediate downward trends this continues to be in decline: so why buy? It has just two days to break the first of those: https://invst.ly/14egjt , so we’ll know by the weekend if it’s fighting back after recent falls.

5) If it finishes above 365 this week then that would be a good indicator but remember that £5 by June 21st would only just match last year’s performance, which was pretty dreadful (until the gossip re Amzn started to invigorate things ).

To summarise: lots of support here but little solid basis for it currently, probably on the assumption in many minds that the sp will one day return to £30 (it might but, apparently, not in the next three years if profitability matters)

Cue the sellers?

https://invst.ly/14e9ad

It would be interesting if this does close above 365 today (I'm not holding my breath).

Even 360 may get tougher as the day progresses.

Given that OCDO is in a continuing trend that’s falling at about 10p per day, recent horizontal support levels have not been lasting many days.

Last year’s low of 342 historically represents the next likely level of support.

Unfortunately, with the sp resuming the downward trend (red) on Friday towards last year’s 342 low, OCDO now has just three days to start a fight back and break out from it: https://invst.ly/14dw5p (15’ view). Failure to do so will inevitably see it pushed to levels not visited since 2017.

Suggestions that OCDO should move to NASDAQ are based on a supposedly more positive attitude to tech stocks in the US. But is that really the case? ARM’s eventual transfer to the US market came after seven years of ownership by Softbank, which acquired it in 2016 and only recently returned it to public ownership after its sale to NVIDIA last summer was scrapped. In reality, there is little basis for comparison between the two companies - one is a designer of mass produced chips which are at the core of many consumer products and the other is a robotics supplier to a fairly narrowly defined retail distribution sector. It's also interesting to see how Simply Wall St rates the two, with OCDO not looking too favourable compared to ARM: https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/consumer-retailing/lse-ocdo/ocado-group-shares https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/semiconductors/nasdaq-arm/arm-holdings .

Symbotic is a much more relevant comparison which is not distorted by OCDO’s dual retail/Tech nature. It receives a vastly more positive analysis: https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nasdaq-sym/symbotic

Even Autostore gets a more positive rating than OCDO in this US-orientated view: https://simplywall.st/stocks/no/capital-goods/ob-auto/autostore-holdings-shares

So would a move to NASDAQ actually change OCDO’s prospects or is its dual nature the main handicap?

The gap occurred on 28th Nov 2017, Stupmy. I’ve discovered there was an RNS that day on the subject you suggested:

Announcement of international partnership between Ocado Solutions and Groupe Casino…..

It can still be accessed in full on this [LSE] site and I guess that was the trigger.

I treat gaps with caution because they do always seem to get filled if the price returns to a sufficiently nearby level - even after a long period. The exceptions seem to be ‘continuation’ gaps - where the price rockets up (or down) never to return to a similar level. It’s a ‘rule’ that I’ve come to accept because it always seems to happen but the explanations for it are not as convincing as I’d like them to be so I’m not going to argue the case for them - I'd just recommend that they aren't ignored.

Today saw the largest volume of OCDO shares dealt in a single day so far this year: https://invst.ly/14djxf

12M plus shares were traded (according to Investing.com), unfortunately this was in a continuation of the downward trend that has formed a fairly regular pattern with no sign of a breakout for nearly three months. Note that the EMAs currently show no sign of converging to form a ‘buy’ crossover indication and haven’t actually crossed since the opposing ‘sell’ indication three months ago (12th Jan). The prospective ‘levelling out’ above 365 support eventually failed today. Here’s a closer view of it: https://invst.ly/14dk2f

As others have said, there is scope for this to go lower and the charts don't contradict that view. Last year’s low of 342 has been on the radar for a while, is getting closer and may represent something of a last chance support because, at 305, there’s a November 2017 unfilled gap of 40p which leads towards the next historic support at 238: https://invst.ly/14dko4

It seems clear that investors are continuing to lose confidence in OCDO and the sp therefore seems set to slide lower until it reaches a firm foundation upon which to build a recovery.

I don't think there's any M&S logos on the delivery vans....

Their local trucks are separately branded, I believe (not that I've seen any)

Also, as I and others have pointed out, there's no obvious customer pathway from the MKS website to their online products within OCDO. It's laughably hopeless.