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Worth noting Boyo how Walmart have filed a few more patents for robots than Ocado:

Ocado may not have used the word ‘robot’ as much in patents because some of them may have wider application.

Walmart’s robots (supplied by Brain Corp) were more like Daleks and weren’t a great success:

https://retailwire.com/discussion/walmart-inventory-bots-flopped-will-sams-succeed/#:~:text=In%20November%20of%202020%2C%20Walmart,the%20employees%20working%20the%20shelves.

On its website, Ocado Group defines itself as: A global, technology business redefining ecommerce, fulfilment and logistics in online grocery and beyond.

Robotics isn’t mentioned in this defining sentence, https://www.ocadogroup.com/our-business/about-us/

As shareholders, we must currently accept that the Group’s financial statements don’t reflect that image, with Technology only providing around 15% of Group Revenue but a healthy 30% of profits. An analysis of the Group as a whole inevitably involves the Retail and Logistics segments and some analysts will do a better job than others. Anyone who focuses on the declared Loss figure without grasping that it reflects amortised development costs rather than a cash outflow will be getting the wrong impression - it’s a mistake that I’ve previously made.

Oh yes I am. Just look at all the air-con needed.

It would take a continent full of PDP8's to come close to that processing power: that would look impressive but size isn't everything.

Software and platforms have improved massively but how much of that core tech did Amazon create and build from scratch? Or are the hardware and operating systems essentially off-the shelf?

But OCDO needed to develop proprietary hardware and software unique to their tech product. Who has a Blackberry these days? Amazon have never attempted to be unique . Universality usually wins unless it's really bad. But don't talk to me about Apple - persisting with something non-standard but technically simple to use in a mass market, ties people to your product and, if you keep it fashionable, you can charge what you like and they'll feel obliged to buy a new one every couple of years because it's hard for them to change.

Yes indeed Pokerchips. Why vote when you've got a big chunk of your capital at risk and invested here when you can be tuning in to this board.

AGM’s are boring aren’t they - and probably just as well this time around. The sp really perked up after 15.15 in a way that the daily chart doesn’t capture https://invst.ly/14li7j However, only a fool would look at OCDO’s LT daily chart https://invst.ly/14lhuz and suggest it looks positive, despite some massive volumes traded recently. The trends up to this afternoon's kick are undeniably pointing to a further fall although support at nominal 342 (which includes a brief intraday low of 335) has so far held. Until and unless it breaks, that support marks the bottom - just like last year, although it did bounce more convincingly then. For me it’s virtually a coin flip as to whether it will fall further in the next few days and, whatever your gut instincts are as a PI, betting the farm on it or arguing the toss here won’t improve those odds much. If it does stay above 342 then the next test will be when it meets the lower red trend in the daily chart later in May. That’s a chat for another day. GLA

Sangijuelas: That's a really good question but, on reflection I think you’ve helped make my point. My immediate answer would be that Bezos saw the power of tech when he started selling the simple merch of books (which didn’t need massive warehouses at first and was a much simpler product to move and shift than groceries (which they still can't do really). The other stuff (making books, music and video into easily managed and delivered data files) came later and was built on basic and established IT formats and systems. Nothing particularly challenging in technology terms, with people doing the logistics associated with stuff that actually couldn’t be delivered over the internet. Was Warehouse automation ever one of Amazon’s main goals? Amazon is primarily built on mainstream operating systems, programming codes, file formats and services and the rest has been either outsourced or is run by locally set-up warehouse and logistics teams with a strong but fairly conventional and flexible IT corporate network binding it all together.

Bezos was too smart to get drawn into stuff that required complex mechanical infrastructure, manufacturing, testing and client support . It was all simple technically - which is why he needed to build a rocket.

Monopolyman asked: Any predictions for today's AGM? [Might] there be some positive news that would push the share price up 5 or 6 per cent?

Looking at a trading view (15min ticks) over the last couple of weeks, https://invst.ly/14ldja I’d be surprised if anyone would be expecting a positive 15p plus move today. Trendwise, it’s obviously vulnerable to a negative push and it's started dipping as I type. Some may be braced for a damaging confrontation regarding salaries and bonus but influential people seem to have the board and major shareholders by the short and curlies. Should TS subsequently depart, for example, then a certain number of dominoes might fall. But is OCDO’s future in UK On-Line Retail or in Warehouse Technology? You tell me - the majority of PI’s apparently think one thing whilst everyone else apparently leans the other way.

Which is TS’s priority? I gather in the military world, having two main objectives is a recipe for failure.

I'm glad to see some cooling off between VP & Pokerchips . Both have strongly differing views that I respect and value.

Re today's Graundian and the current VCP Scheme:

Ocado said it wanted to replace the scheme [which still has three years to run] because “unprecedented volatility” in its share price had “served to undermine the impact of the VCP scheme to the extent that it is no longer motivating or retentive to many of its participants.”

In other words - the market performance (due to current participant policies and actions) is not going to merit any worthwhile payout within the next three years under the scheme set up two years ago? So, having failed to deliver on realistic targets set two years ago, let’s have a lower bar please or we might leave (and give you a chance to hire someone better).

I used the word reh******, past tense referring to an actor's preparation. It's not permitted here as it is offensive and I consequently had all capitals removed from my post. I apologise deeply.

that's fair enough vp - but unless i can see the rationale it's just hearsay. and the hsbc sources quoted so far don't look too brilliant on work that is openly available. i note that paul rossington is listed on the us tipranks site as an analyst covering mks - which is interesting. one point though, is that i'm sure your fundamental views about ocdo - which are very well rehe****d - are substantially based on the analysis that you are seeing. neither of the named hsbc analysts appear to have a tech or warehousing background and that causes me to view their analysis with some doubts. on the other hand, i'm not entirely convinced that ocdo's exec team know how to drive a tech business. in this day and age the cash is to be made in licensing the ip - ocdo maybe too into the warehouse infrastructure and mechanics, which requires resources flung across the globe. i also hope they are training the robots how to put out fires and recover units that seize up in the middle of the grid. atb

Yes, sources and detail are important.

The OCDO list of analysts is a 52 week view. And I can't find any recent analysis on OCDO produced by Paul R.

He is listed as a Director of HSBC Investment Bank, and does consumer and retail analysis (technology is not listed by him that I can find).

But maybe this is the same guy with a two star rating (slightly less than Linda Shu):

https://www.tipranks.com/experts/analysts/paul-rossington

The main point here is that some analysis is informative, some is just click bait or column filling. Unless there's some detail and substantiation it's as useful as a pile of poo. So don't let's waste more time on it. Last week's HSBC analysis was not in the same league as Exane's last year hence the non-existent market reaction.

Paul Rossington needs to get more credit then, VP:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/hsbc-keeps-their-sell-rating-on-ocado-group-ocdgf-1033283118

Maybe you could provide a link to his analysis?

On checking, I found that the HSBC analyst (I could only find one) who maintained a Sell rating on Ocado Group was Linda Shu:

She covers the Healthcare sector, focusing on stocks such as Sino Biopharmaceutical, China Medical System Holdings, and Sinopharm Group Co. She has an average return of -1.6% and a 53.33% success rate on recommended stocks.

Warehouse automation and Technology are not listed amongst her specialities and I could find no recommendations from her within the sector. I could have done some more work but it would apparently cost me a fee and, given the above, I decided it really wasn't worth pursuing, especially as HSBC's rating didn't exactly shift the dial regarding OCDO. Unsurprisingly, there doesn't seem to be any available data to back up the claim about it being a “highly competitive” market with “many established participants”. No one I've asked so far has come up with any significant suggestions beyond Autostore.

I think it was Sangi rather than me - I was a bit dismissive and also mentioned the video was 6 months old.

I have researched the competition, that's why I'm interested in HSBC's list. I'd like to compare notes, like I did with Retireguy last week. But if it's not to hand , no worries, google will dig up something.

Some people ordered Teslas before they were a thing.

I expect OCDO's clients are smarter than that - so no take-up until availability of kit.

Now there's anpther CEO after a nice bonus whilst the share is down:

https://invst.ly/14l37r

The Delaware judge in Elon’s case said: "Swept up by the rhetoric of 'all upside,' or perhaps starry eyed by Musk’s superstar appeal, the board never asked the $55.8 billion question: Was the plan even necessary for Tesla to retain Musk and achieve its goals?"

How are we all voting in our AGM?

Did HSBC list the competition VP?

According to this old article, Kroger has to work to retain their exclusivity with Ocado, which ensures that it will be able to sell to other US firms if Kroger falters in some way. The US firm will have to pay Ocado monthly exclusivity fees and Kroger will lose its exclusive right to Ocado’s platform should it fail to commit to the 20 CFCs within the next three years [this was written six years ago]

In the longer term, Kroger will have to meet targets based on its market share to keep its exclusivity, or order an agreed number of new CFCs each year – ensuring that Ocado is only cutting itself off from the rest of the US market whilst Kroger generates growth in some form or another, whether that be in sales or expanding its network of Ocado centres.

https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/shares-news/ocado-share-price-soars-after-striking-transformational-deal--ha-180522

Re: wanting Steiner to have a tough time at the AGM:

Ocado has said in the past that its pay schemes are approved by shareholders and only deliver above-market payouts for “the delivery of above-market, outstanding results”. I guess all on this board might have a view on whether the last three years have demonstrated outstanding results. However - there are good times around the corner apparently, providing the execs get even more incentive . What is the definition of a mug?

Tim got a £54 million bonus in 2020. At the time, Royal London Asset Management (RLAM) said that year’s bonus bonanza was “a classic example of how poorly-designed incentive plans can lead to excessive awards for management”.

According to BlackRock (Yes, Blackrock*), which voted against the remuneration report and the re-election of the entire remuneration committee, the incentive plans were: “subject to a single performance metric that only measured management’s performance indirectly”.“It was also designed to target an outcome that the executives — as significant shareholders themselves — were already incentivised to achieve”.

*Blackrock increased their short position two weeks ago…

Although it’s two years old and doesn’t include the latest tech - like on grid picking robots - this is one of the best videos I’ve seen in terms of conveying the scale and product handling chain within the Ocado warehouse process.

https://youtu.be/ssZ_8cqfBlE?si=E3_iIiog-XBgi-74

There’s a lot to digest there, Sangijuelas and there’s no doubt that the business model is poorly understood. The Tech contribution to EBITDA certainly improved in 2023 alongside its revenue, which was up by 44.3%. If that continues then the picture should improve over time. I think there are three more CFC’s to be added this year - resulting in at least 120 live modules in total (up from 111 at FY23). In the meantime, however, the larger UK Retail and Logistics (ie Grocery) numbers will inevitably continue to dominate the FY statement and define perceptions of the company.

I note that the eye-catching FY23 Group loss before tax (393.6m) is largely made up of depreciation, amortisation and impairment (395.9m), which includes internally generated intangible assets (like the costs of developing OSP etc.) together with the continuing roll-out of OSP hardware and software at all CFC sites. I’m no accountant but I understand this largely represents cap ex from previous years like investment in development of the core technology and software which is then amortised or depreciated over a number of years for tax reasons. So the cash has been spent and my comment that OCDO still makes a loss should be qualified to clarify that operational profits are being made but that they are effectively buried in the headline pre-tax profit/loss figure by cap-ex depreciation/amortisation from years prior. In that sense the situation is not as bad as it may first appear.

Following your prompt, Sang , I’ve now watched the video - which is 6 months old and made when the sp was, er, rather more than today!! So his advice turned out to be cr+p (although it did nearly hit 800 and I recall taking profits).

Yes - he says Tech is the thing for OCDO investors but look at it - is that really true regarding the company? It’s been pumping cash into UK CFCs and Logistics etc. etc and is now in the top three UK online grocers It’s primarily an f’in grocer ffs!!! And, despite being in the top three it is still making a loss every year - so something isn’t right - right?

The FY Report had Solutions at less than a third of group EBITDA - with Logistics dominating (thanks to people and vans) and Retail limping along due to the poor margins in grocery.

Autostore seem to have more focus on tech although they've admittedly not been as smart as OCDO in selling a product that provides a sustainable income stream.

OCDO tech has had more than a decade since IPO and a decade before that, so twenty years + , which is a long time in tech, but it still isn’t a global benchmark warehouse system. Is that because the UK grocery business was the priority?

I hope Steiner has a tough time at the AGM: after twenty + years building a top three UK on-line business and an advanced tech product he's still making a loss. I doubt he would even make it on The Apprentice. And he wants a bonus? LMAO.