Member Info for Boyobach

52-week high of 2,801.00, set on Oct 18, 2023......

Yeah -this chart happens to show the falling red trend starting at that intra-day high: https://invst.ly/147tx7

It's certainly a target for me, although anything above 2750 has proven to be pretty fragile so far! GLA!

I'd personally prefer less conflict in the world and a stable, sustainable OP but, hey-ho, the reality of humanity is chaotic at best and barbaric at worst. Yes Brent looking good trend-wise: https://invst.ly/147tlo and, TBF, $87 is at the upper edge of its 'normal' price range (if there is such a thing) rether than hitting an extreme.

Yes - it's 'year on year' - so achieved over a period of 12 months, not 'during its first quarter' as the retail gazette article states. Do you guys not understand the word 'during' ?

Thanks for confirming my point.

The article says the rise occurred during the quarter - but, as you say, it is a year on year increase so it occurred over a twelve month period - ie between the end of Q1 2023 (measurement 1) and the end of Q1 2024 (Measurement 2) it did not happen during a single quarter. It is the word 'during' that is misleading. Also. by using the word 'surge' it reinforces the false impression of a rapid rise over three months (ie between two adjacent quarters), when, in fact, it was an increase over a year which was presumably largely driven by inflation rather than business performance. I'm not suggesting that OCDO's performance has been bad but neither has it been an outstanding 'surge' as the wording of the article implies.

‘The news comes after Ocado reported a 10.6% surge in sales during its first quarter…’

I find this bit of the retail gazette article misleading: A 10.6% increase in the first quarter would indeed be a surge but it’s a year on year figure for the first quarter - so less than 1% per month averaged over 12 months. That’s not ‘a surge’ in my book. If it was a comparison with Q4 2023 , as the wording implies, then that would indeed be impressive.

Cheers Casapinos, I appreciate your response to my comments. However, I do disagree that the retail JV’s prime purpose isn’t to make a profit: It is a fully fledged operation - not a tech test model, so if it isn’t profitable then it demonstrates that the technology doesn’t generate sufficient cost benefit to justify buying it. Also, on a factual point, I believe the revenue and customer numbers you quote are those of the full JV not just the M&S portion. But I stand to be corrected on that.

Meanwhile, the sp is today struggling to test 470 let alone 500 and the most positive upward (green) trend now looks like this: https://invst.ly/1463u- . Hopefully support at 450 stays intact but I’m guessing quite a few stop losses may be set just below 432.

I recommend the debate (Waccy, VP and Phoenixy) in the ‘why underperformance matters’ thread.

As waccy points out, this is a heavily sentiment influenced stock but, as Valueplay says, the fundamentals currently look rather weak. For me, OCDO remains a total punt - and the charts just help me gauge how the market is moving, which for the last fortnight has been along a tightrope.

In the absence of news on either JV negotiation with M&S or the tech front, I assume the next key fundamental influence could be the M&S Prelim results on May 22nd.

Casapinos: ‘Ocado retail is a full-scale demonstrator for the real product which is OCDO tech solutions. Its primary purpose isn't to make money’.....

Try telling that to M&S!!

The Trading JV is supposed to be a profitable business in its own right and also demonstrate that the technology enables similar businesses to be sufficiently profitable to justify investment in OCDO's technology.

I’m glad many of you are happy with this statement and that some think it’s extremely good. I hope you are right.

I’ve found it sobering to compare the market reaction with this point 12 months ago, after the 2023 Retail Update. https://invst.ly/145bya .A year on and the sp today is very comparable with then, so the market hasn’t yet seen any material increase in the Group value since then despite resolution of the Autostore dispute and a year of improvement in the JV Performance. In April 2023 the sp briefly rose from 478 on statement day to around 560 before eventually sinking to the year’s low at 342 in early June. I hope things go better this time around - the charts will provide the true picture without any vague words of praise and hype. Does this performance merit an improved bonus package for senior management? Our votes count apparently.

BTW: For those that missed it, Valueplay posted before 8am with a quick and useful analysis.

Ha! I've become a bit absorbed elsewhere getafgrip. But Shel has been doing great for me - I'm still 'overweight' in Shel despite recently disposing of two out of three trading tranches I acquired near the bottom. My target for the last of those is around 2750. After that I will only start selling tranches of my core holding if I'm convinced I'm seeing a pull back from a significant high. My O&G 'failure' has been BP, although I've made a reasonable profit on two out of three tranches there and I'm breaking even on the third but I'd have done much better with Shel. I should have known better, I guess. ATB.

I think you nailed it there waccy.

I do agree, Pokerchips. It's about getting the balance right and, TBH, there probably isn't a formula that would please everyone.

However, if he needs the carrot of an enhanced bonus it implies he either hasn't been doing his best up to now - or that he deserves more for continuing at the standard he's been achieving . So it boils down to whether the voters at the AGM think he's doing a great job and meeting their expectations (which should have been based on his guidance over the years). Reading some of the posts here I detect an increasing level of dissatisfaction = which suggests many will view the revised bonus as a reward for underachievement. I've been fairly neutral up until recently because I thought that the wild sp swings were purely down to investor overoptimism but I'm starting to feel there have been strategic errors as well.

At least it's up for a vote.

It’ll be interesting to see when OP does break the red trend here: https://invst.ly/144pd4

For Brent, the price region around $87 has been a potential ceiling since 2018, when it marked the onset of US shale overproduction and the crash in price that resulted. Things have changed since then but global events have, as they always will, disrupted the natural demand/supply balance that OPEC+ seeks to optimise and control. Once the price rises above $90 it usually triggers a sharp increase in production somewhere (the US would almost certainly be one area to react) which tends to put a lid on it.

Under the new proposals, Steiner would be able to receive an award worth 600% of his base salary, or almost £5m, even if targets for total shareholder returns and other performance measures are met but the share price goal is missed.

Ocado fell on Monday following a report over the weekend suggesting the company is under pressure over executive pay after an influential proxy adviser urged shareholders to vote against a new bonus scheme that could see boss Tim Steiner paid as much as £14.8m.

Source: Sharecast.

https://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/ocado-facing-opposition-to-pound15m-bonus-for-tim-steiner--16490684.html

Valueplay: is the unused 25% merely empty warehouse or has it been fully kitted out? I also presume that they are not employing manpower to operate the unused space. It strikes me as an opportunity to diversify from groceries with targeted higher margin products.

Buying on the dips can sometimes turn into buying on the downward slope.

On Friday the price had been squeezed by downward pressure and, this morning, it’s been the downward pressure that has prevailed so far: https://invst.ly/144jhk

It implies there isn’t too much confidence ahead of tomorrow's Retail Update. Although no one knows what that will reveal, it shouldn’t be significantly worse than indications contained in the FY results, so hopefully there won’t be any bad surprises and the sp won’t fall below 450 or, at worst, 430. However, OCDO has been known to disappoint investors - especially those who have high expectations. If the statement is badly received then there's a risk it could continue towards Exane’s target from last year and the gap from last June at 386. Some good news is needed at this stage.

Despite a tendency to drift upwards It couldn’t have ended the week much more level could it?

https://invst.ly/143wwg

Back below 470, sandwiched between the current opposing red and green trends and a parallel EMA pair .

The 'up or down' coin looks set to be flipped by next Tuesday’s statement.

At the moment I'm neutral, Phoenixy. And so is the EMA -if you follow it, it's a fairly conservative (cautious) indicator.

The price has levelled out around 460-470 for nearly two weeks now as the trading statement approaches. Yesterday's spike wasn't on a high volume day and the sp has now dropped back. Let's see what next week brings.

So ultimately, despite the overnight shenanigans, yesterday’s gap to 468.8 did get filled: https://invst.ly/143kkv .

Perhaps we’ll now see the price resume a more consistent path?

This morning’s Investing.com daily chart has changed since last night’s version ( https://invst.ly/143e0x ) and shows the gap restored: https://invst.ly/143js4

However, this morning’s version currently gives yesterday’s low & close at 476.7 (which matches the UT) and Wednesday’s high at 471.9 (which does not match the previously quoted high of 468.8), leaving a reduced gap of 4.8p (down from 7.9).

It is rather unsatisfactory when the price data is inconsistent.

Many investors who watch prices closely know about gaps and the inevitability of them getting filled. So when a gap fill happens unseen and unexpectedly then it is, frankly, a bit unusual and some might regard it as suspicious:

Tonight’s closing UT was at 477.10 with the previous day’s high at 468.8. So today's 15’ chart is this: https://invst.ly/143dgm showing a clear 7.9p gap between the two days that was still present at today’s close.

However, without explanation, the current daily chart on Investing.com is this: https://invst.ly/143e0x , showing a new low for today at 466.7 (significantly below the UT) and a high for yesterday at 471.9 (significantly higher than yesterday’s previously recorded high)

The consequence of this is that the 7.9p gap has apparently disappeared since tonight’s close. (If anyone here knows when and how then please post some information)

If this is correct then it will alter market expectations concerning tomorrow’s opening price as there is no longer a reason to presume that the sp will fall in order to fill a gap that apparently no longer exists.

This will undoubtedly play well for those who favour conspiracy and manipulation theories. For the rest of us it’s just another day at the market - with the expected gap-fill now removed.