Member Info for Boyobach

Chilting:

By saying ‘the speculation about a disagreement is just misinformation.’ are you seriously suggesting that the recent press reports are based on deliberately sown misinformation and that TS’s statement regarding legal action was intended to lend credibility? I’d find that hard to believe - especially as his remarks would have been unnecessarily OTT given that they probably aggravated this week’s drop in sp.

And where does Neilhumpheys get ‘OG maybe content with the realised 23m’ from? There’s a provision for £28m in the FY figures but it hasn’t been realised. TS told reporters that the £28m estimated valuation of the payment from M&S was "ludicrously low" (source BBC). I believe that was a further £67m reduction on the previously released IFRS 13 fair value (the original amount due had been £190m)

The notion that M&S might acquire 100% of the JV may not be unrealistic and may well be a good move (I happen to think it would be) but I don’t think a 'misinformation to cover talks' scenario is credible. Have I misunderstood?

To be fair Retireguy, OCDO deals in groceries - Amazon mainly deals in non perishables. When it comes to fresh stuff, Amazon partners with others like Morrisons, Co-op and Iceland and what's available to you will depend on your postcode.

This dispute between MKS and OCDO has been going on since January 2023. It is NOT news….

Indeed it shouldn’t be, Tom, but the reality is that unresolved issues will inevitably resurface. Neither party seems to be handling it well - which reflects on both of them. A JV should demonstrate that it is an effective working partnership with common goals and objectives, fully focused on fixing problems and building success. Business negotiations behind closed doors are part of that process but public threats of legal action are another matter. Senior management, by the way they’ve handled it, have cast doubts on its future and Steiner’s public ‘legal threat’ was an ill advised blunder at a crucial time with the sp near a tipping point and needing to be steadied. It’s hard to guess who initially rattled the cage - an inept insider or some entity which stands to gain from the outcome,

One thing for sure is that the weekend has given the market chance to consider the prospects and implications so the sp has been pushed to last October’s limit at 446, which represents something of an unknown cliff edge: either recover or dive over: https://invst.ly/13swet

I have just bought a small tranche - it’s far too early for me to commit heavily and the direction is, for the moment, a pure coin toss.

Me too Stupmy. I was originally long in OCDO from when it was over three times today's price and I quickly realised the mistake I had made which needed some drastic management (trading) to get my loss down and eventually make a profit. It was thanks to regular posters here like Valueplay and others (who I won't name because it might not be helpful to them) who drew my attention to the potential downsides. OCDO may well turn out great but it could be hard work for a PI - it's not a 'buy and forget' kind of stock - but none of them are in reality. ATB

Cheers stupmy. And good luck to you.

I do think that OCDO has great potential but something, or someone, is holding it back.

Yes SFH300 - it is very amusing.

So much for AI I guess.

My post was decapitalised too, presumably that is a side effect of the process.

I assume you realised what the inoffensive word in my post was. I guess the vehicle used at funerals can't be named either.

And you are not?

i've been very clear, onsolidground, that i've been out of ocdo for some time but am interested in re-entry at the right price upon signs of a turnaround in performance. an essential aspect of investing is buying and selling at the right price because even well performing shares cycle in value. discussions about a price having peaked or bottomed out inevitably contain a negative element. there is much less to say, or be concerned about, when a price is steadily rising. ocdo is a volatile and highly speculative share, having fallen from £30 to a low of £3.42 because it didn't meet market expectations. any sensible person would want to check it out before placing a bet on it because, make no mistake, it is a gamble rather than a solid investment at this stage.

i notice that you haven’t challenged any of the specific points i made in my ‘jam tomorrow’ post and, instead, deflected the conversation towards some of the well rehe****d positives. if there were no positives i wouldn’t be interested in ocdo. my comments were about fundamental weaknesses and drew upon some points made here:

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/ii-view-ocado-delivers-progress-stays-red-ii530910

the post i made on results day was very neutral in the context of yet another rather disappointing week for the ocdo sp and i specifically said that i would not sell if i was a holder. the charts are what they are - a record of price movements and the resulting trends. i can’t help it if they reflect a somewhat gloomy reality: a price is rising or falling until it isn’t, at which point the trend will be broken, giving a very useful indication.

i value reasoned arguments and frankly don’t find engaging with either cheerleaders or derampers to be useful. within any social media, you can find yourself in an echo-chamber where the more moronic element will fill the space with their polarising noise and seek to exclude any meaningful debate. fortunately they are very easy to spot and block.

The past week has brought some clarity and confirmation for me:

Without the Autostore settlement, it appears that OCDO’s 2023 losses would have been running at around £90m more than 2022. Meanwhile, guidance for next year is reportedly poorer than the consensus of analyst expectations [DYOR].

So, after twenty four years (only the latter ten years on the market) OCDO could continue to be a loss making group where a PI’s investment is largely based on ‘jam tomorrow’ prospects. That would be ok if the company’s historic progress in retail and technology had consistently moved in the right direction. However, the last four FY results point to disappointment, with a fall in sp every February.

The M&S JV, for example, has not met targets for full payment and there is a very public dispute between the two parties which indicates that the partnership is not working well.

Chartwise, the sp closed on Friday at its lowest level for three months and the main downward trends continue after the last remaining positive trend (green) was broken earlier in the week.

https://invst.ly/13s09t

I'm not convinced 460 will hold if it gets tested, although the technology prospect obviously drives a high level of optimistic sentiment.

I’ll be interested to see Exane’s next analysis but, for me, this is still too expensive on current performance and prospects.

Re Onsolidground comment about uncrossing trade/closing auction: 'where large players get their stock without affecting the market and it also dictates what the closing share price is.'

So one of the main trading activities of the day, which sets the closing price , doesn't affect the market? Really?

I'm not sure you fully understood the homework that Valueplay set for you.

After the usual hour or two of ‘results volatility’ today, OCDO is back above 500 but hasn’t quite regained the positive trend it slipped from on Monday:

https://invst.ly/13qsbl

It isn’t out of the woods but things could easily have been worse. If I was a holder, would I sell at the moment? No. Would I buy at the moment? No.

Whether you’re an optimist or a pessimist about OCDO, today’s results probably served to reinforce your view.

As with the market, apparently, the dial hasn’t shifted either way for me.

'legal recourse and courts' doesn't inspire much confidence in the partnership.

Both sides need to get their act together, show a much better degree of teamwork and coordinate their PR effectively.

It isn't doing either company any good.

Waccy: The graphs never lie right?

Correct. As a record of price movements, the charts are historic facts and therefore do not lie. Tuesday was a steady day. and I said that 'perhaps it will hold steady' - indicating that there was no certainty.

Today’s trading behaviour was indeed different but the price ultimately ended up only slightly down: https://invst.ly/13q26g

My interpretation is that the market is unsure about the results so nothing much has changed since Monday’s drop to 492.

The direction from tomorrow’s open will be determined by reaction to the results - which was always going to be the case.

After yesterday's downward pressure, today’s 15 minute trading trend (green) swung mildly positive:

https://invst.ly/13ov0r

Perhaps it will now hold steady near 500 into the results.

‘the instalment actually isn't due until 6 months time, in August.’

But the qualifying date was last November. So, just like a dividend payment to shareholders, it should be solidly built into the sp by now.

But it isn’t, creating uncertainty due to a performance failure of unknown significance on OCDO’s part.

Until OCDO make a statement this ‘unknown’ will weigh on the sp

Yes Swanley, I’ve tried to do a chart which covers your points and also includes EMA for those interested - as its divergence today does emphasise the challenge of tomorrow’s battle: https://invst.ly/13o6b0 If it bounces back to close above 500 this week it’ll be significant IMO.

According to Investing.com chart data, 531.6 was today’s high - it never came close to 570. I usually draw daily trends through open or close prices ignoring the intraday 'wicks' unless they reinforce the pattern.

I do also realise that there are more negative trends beyond the immediate one but, frankly, holders of OCDO on this board don’t need more negativity right now. I want to see where this week’s battle takes the price before I think about what comes next.

I’m naturally looking for a ‘bottom’ to judge my re-entry but I’m never against a bounce for LTH’s: as long as an sp goes up and not down after I buy, I’m happy.

Valueplay’s comments about OCDO and M&S are spot on as far as I’m concerned.

I’m out of OCDO currently and in no rush to jump back in immediately after today. If I was still ‘in’, however, then I’d be inclined to sit tight to see how the wind blows tomorrow morning. The odds are not great for a rebound ahead of the results but I’m also thinking that today’s punch to the jaw may quickly establish where the 2024 floor is. At least the trends are more straightforward now: two reds have merged and green is dead: https://invst.ly/13o31q . Will the sp clamber up from the canvas tomorrow, clinging to nominal 500 support? It seems unlikely but these things do happen. If not then 450 offers the next obvious support level.

It’s somewhat misleading in the IG article to say: Their [OCDO’s] shares have already fallen by 45% since last summer. Investors are eagerly awaiting the report….

The truth is that the shares are up since issue with M&S came to the forefront in June. The 45% fall has more to do with the collapse in expectations concerning a takeover which overoptimistically boosted the sp.

However, the timing of this ‘report’ does set the scene for Thursday: it’s often useful to get bad news out ahead of results. According to Share cast: ‘The final payment [of £190.7m to OCDO from M&S, based on performance to Nov 23 and due in August ] is binary, meaning that M&S must pay the sum in full or not at all. There is a mechanism in the contract, however, for "adjustments" to be made if both sides agree.

There has been speculation over how much M&S would end up paying Ocado after the online grocer cut the "fair value" of the payout by another £17m to £78m in November, while M&S cut it to zero. Insiders told The Times there was unlikely to be an update on Thursday, when Ocado publishes its full-year results, as talks are still continuing.’

Things are not looking brilliant ahead of the results as OCDO’s sp has lost the immediate uphill trend battle: https://invst.ly/13nqym

With the only positive green trend broken this morning and the three reds here still dominating.

Just to add, for longer term context: BP and Shel were tracking each other closely prior to 2020. A split has developed since, progressively widening over the last three years: https://invst.ly/13ncg8

Here’s BP against Shel rebased to Oct 30th last year, immediately prior to the sharp fall in sp following BP’s disappointing H1 results: https://invst.ly/13nc2w

It’s apparent from this that BP’s drop of about 24p (4.5%) relative to Shel on the 31st Oct continues, even though it was briefly eliminated by the jump in sp after the recent FY results on Feb 6th.

Here’s a closer comparison of the two (rebased to 16th Jan). The initial positive response to BP’s FY figures was short lived and has effectively been wiped out: https://invst.ly/13nc1c