Member Info for Boyobach

Here’s an end of day chart link that works:

https://invst.ly/12xw8d

The gap did nearly fill (6p of it remains) as the day progressed but the price ultimately closed below the longer term red and green trends. As is fairly obvious, a drop below 24.50 opens up the possibility of a deeper fall

Oil is volatile stuff and a new price war seems to be starting - remember what this did to Shel’s sp last time?

Only on Friday an article in Talkmarkets was saying:

‘As global tensions escalate in the Middle East, the oil market is experiencing a surge in prices,’

Yet yesterday the story had swung to this:

‘The downswing comes after Saudi Arabia reduced the February official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude to Asia, pushing it down to the lowest level in 27 months. The action followed growing supply and competition with rival producers.

“Oil watchers are rightly questioning that the kingdom’s cut is not only aimed at quelling interference from non-OPEC supply [ ie US Shale] but from its very own cartel membership.” – said PVM’s John Evans. ‘

The fact is that, contrary to cartel policy, some OPEC producers have increased supply , whilst US production is also threatening OPEC’s control over OP. Three weeks ago Bloomberg reported:

‘OPEC’s one-time nemesis — US shale — is rearing its head just months after the sector was all but written off as a threat to the cartel’s sway over worldwide oil markets. Drillers from the Permian Basin in West Texas to the Bakken Shale of North Dakota have ramped up oil production well beyond what analysts foresaw, pushing output to a record just as OPEC and its allies put the brakes on supplies in a bid to arrest price declines.’

Sorry about the dud link - it looks like a problem at Investing.com and may be temporary.

This morning's gap down presented a nice top-back-up opportunity as it's virtually certain to get filled:

https://invst.ly/12xjqt

Shown here, the sp is also near the bottom of both red and green trends and the EMA had just crossed into 'buy' mode before the drop - forcing it back down. It's always worth keeping some powder dry, of course.

And they're off - but slowly:

The last two short market weeks have passed without much to talk about regarding Shel, the other majors or OP - the latter is down by about a $1 and the others remain fairly flat compared to Friday 22nd close. https://invst.ly/12wuwe

Regarding Casapino's post - I've always appreciated their comments btw - I think an annual review is the very least that market investors need to do. Shares need to be managed and a close watch kept at all times IMV, whilst reviewing strategy and performance at this time of year is good . Always bearing in mind that each company's end of year report is another marker. I'm sticking with Shel - which is so far delivering better than my recent dip into BP.

Since early Nov, I have put the proceeds of some of my Shel trades into BP, figuring that, after a relatively poor spell, BP was due an increase. Well it will be nice if/when it happens, although it should be noted that both UK co’s had a better year sp-wise than their US cousins, presumably a reflection of the dividend gradually being restored to pre-2020 levels:

https://invst.ly/12wvb5

Yes indeed Guiness.

Hopefully for holders (I'm out currently) it will lead to a reset and a smoother, less volatile, recovery path.

Cheers Justfencing. My exit was more fortuitous than I expected, with the two and a half year red trend having a bigger impact than I anticipated. https://invst.ly/12r-q8

750 didn’t delay, let alone halt, the current pullback so now 680 ish looks like the obvious next landing if the fall continues at pace. Although it hasn’t got much history as a support level, the recent blue trend is also there. If those fail then other likely levels come onto the radar. The 16th Jan Trading Statement will obviously influence direction and set expectations leading up to the FY results. ATB.

@ JohnyCL…It's a very long slow process of buy/sell, buy/sell’....

Is it really Johny? Check out the after hours volumes of the last couple of days - individual transactions of 1m+ shares after market close, possibly in readiness for selling into the next day’s rise. It’s not inconsistent with the volumes involved in the early morning decline in price. If that is a process, then the job looks pretty much done by 10am.

Because of the slow progress in sp increase since Wednesday and the possible stalling of price at around 50% of early October’s value due to the company’s cash flow issues, I decided to sell yesterday. If I was a LTH then I’d probably continue to hold most if not all but, having made around 60% since Monday, I decided to step back and see what happens next. PFC has been hard work for me in the past and I’m not sure I want to get stuck back in. Wishing everyone well here meanwhile.

Sm66: ……but they have to at some point buy the shares they’ve borrowed…

So they increase their short position (borrow more shares) on, say, the 19th in anticipation of a rise and then sell them at the next peak (which they effectively determine) and buy back when the price drops sufficiently (it doesn’t need to hit the borrow level for a profit to be made) - job done. They have bought the shares back already, so don't get focused on the notion that there are millions of shares yet to be bought back.

It’s interesting to note that the three peaks of the last three days are on a very precise line (blue).

https://invst.ly/12rprq

It could be a pure coincidence, of course. The volumes of shares involved don't seem inconsistent with the increased short level to me.

So far OCDO is following the script in as much as the two long term trends (red) put some brakes on the advance but the gap got filled and the rise tarted to meet anticipated resistance beyond the gap. The question now is whether 750 will provide support ahead of a push through the upper red trend and a move towards 860:

https://invst.ly/12rabd . It certainly seems possible.

Sentiment has been strong recently and there’s obviously a high level of expectation regarding January’s statement, so it seems unlikely that there’ll be much of a pullback before then and potentially a further rally. However, having hit my target but not being quite as confident as the market has been so far, I cashed my chips yesterday. GLA.

Today’s chart is interesting: sharp rise obviously (shame about the gap) then settling quickly to almost flat, normal volume during the day, with a rise late pm and a bump in volume an hour after the closing auction:

https://invst.ly/12qwv4

I reckon after-hours totalled over 2M in volume, half of which is listed as a single ‘O’ transaction at an apparently lower price than that of the closing auction

(Please DYOR to independently check/verify). Obviously, there’s a lot going on here, which is a bit opaque to me. I imagine that shorters would make maximum use of the natural profit taking cycle that a rising sp encourages, so how much influence did their activity have upon limiting the price today? As others have noted, Helikon was still adding as of yesterday (19th). I guess shorters could have sold and bought back at profit during first hour today (20th) - rinse repeat Thursday? .

This is all complete supposition, of course.

Good luck to all LTH’s here that have today seen the start of a possible turn around for PFC.

It’s all very well for newbies or people like me who have just returned in order to make a fast buck, but I do know how crushing a massive drop in sp can be.

Despite the baggage and the doubts I have about it, I’ve decided to stay in for a while - although 60% gain by the close was a tempting proposition after just two days (it was 85% at the peak). Not that I’m suggesting that investment decisions should be based on sentiment - I'm here to make my investments work.

Let's see what the next phase brings.

'This is a market, a company goes bust, up front payments are seized …'

Guarantees will be in place to protect the client and those will depend on the financial stability of the contractor.

There is a cash flow issue affecting the balance sheet this affects the guarantees causing a delay which affects the balance sheet which affects the guarantees ...... etc etc

Correct!

Sure they added. Check a trading chart for yesterday and this morning - a couple of shorting runs to drive the price from 20.87 down to 20.00. and then re-load. Shorting isn't magic - - or invisible.

AND watch the after-hours buying tonight that's been going on at the closing price of 22.36 .

Innocent buys anticipating a rise or shorters re-charging in order to go in the morning?

https://invst.ly/12q6wx

I genuinely don't know but, as I said in a thread earlier, shorting doesn't affect fundamentals and - unless you are day trading - it's a distraction.

Temple of Doom: The kind of contracts here are of a scale that has different kinds of guarantees associated with them. This isn't a local builder or handyman. Those guarantees are one of the reasons the cash flow needs to be flowing more smoothly than it is currently - much of the problem is a matter of timing. Chillax and keep scalping - your activity, along with the rest, helps fill the dips, even if you are also tending to blunt the peaks .

The sp is making a step in the right direction so far today, especially if it closes above the three month red trend here: https://invst.ly/12q0np

PFC’s current problems lie within the balance sheet, pure and simple. They’ll either fix them or they won’t - and the sp will eventually move accordingly. Shorters have no control over the fundamentals, LTH's should not be distracted by the current emotive noise but focus on how the company deals with its cash flows. Don't expect too much tomorrow, either.

As there seems to be some anxiety and confusion here about short positions this link to Castellain Capital short tracker might help those who want to keep an eye on the position, it’s updated every day after the close and gives the dates of changes;

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B0H2K534/

My understanding is that the shares on loan can be traded flexibly.

Looking at volume of transactions, Dec 4th, date of the last RNS and business update, recorded the highest volume in over two years and was over twice the volume of any other day during the period, thus establishing something of a reference price level. Today’s volume was about 15% as much:

https://invst.ly/12pks9

Closing price that day was 20.82p, up 3.81 (22%) from the previous close of 17.01

Since the 4th, sp activity has been mainly above 20p as it approaches the two and a half month downward red trend which it does need to break in the next two days in order to stay level or push upwards:

https://invst.ly/12pl6d

Given that, it seems unlikely that Wednesday's statement will contain anything to undermine that of the 4th, in which case I think downward pressure on the sp should be lifting by the weekend.

In view of this, I bought a few today during the afternoon dip.

Closing above 25 would be good: https://invst.ly/12p6at