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A significant break upwards for OCDO yesterday.

And for those that watch it, the EMA went into 'buy' a fortnight ago and now shows no sign of slipping back, as it often does with shares hovering near a turning point. https://invst.ly/12h0ey

The U.S. Just Recorded Its Highest Oil Production Month In History:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-US-Just-Recorded-Its-Highest-Oil-Production-Month-In-History.html

For the last decade, OP has been subject to US ‘boom and bust’ cycles which, following the last OP war with OPEC+, were supposedly now under control because US companies that needed to pump ever increasing volumes to service debt had all gone bust and shale production came under the more prudent control of better financed organisations.

Yet OP today still remains vulnerable to US overproduction and depends on OPEC+ reducing production in order to balance supply and demand.

As Presidential election approaches, the current administration would love to see OP nearer $60, so don't expect green policies to keep much of a lid on things.

Addicts don’t like their supplier….

Oil is a necessary evil: society knows it but it’s easier to blame the oil co’s than to accept responsibility and deal with it.

As the week progresses:

Oil is up $2.5 since last Friday’s LSE close but, despite following it up on Monday, oil companies are back down and effectively flat:

https://invst.ly/12cwvo

A lot less volatile than it was in the summer and following a more measured and normal recovery path:

https://invst.ly/12byhm Will resistance at around 610 prove to be a ceiling or a step to the next level?

Perhaps the analysts pointing to levels near 400 were totally wrong. The Q4 Trading statement on 16th Jan will be the next test unless there's more news in the meantime.

.....and the tight link with Brent continued today, with BP doing much the same...https://invst.ly/12byd2 .

This gives a closer look at how Shel has tracked OP since results on Nov 2nd;

https://invst.ly/12beqz

Shel’s sp resisted Friday afternoon’s drop in OP, from which Brent has since recovered. This morning’s sp of around 2630 is consistent with where Shel was in relation to Brent about a week ago

Apart from its spike to 2788 on Nov 3rd, Shel has been mainly influenced by OP and remains in a two week downward trend: https://invst.ly/12aw6v

OP has been heading downwards for nearly a month, Neversell, so continuation of the slide below $80 has been on the cards for a while- especially as it often hits a low around the end of the year. Shel itself was due a pull back and TBH hasn't been hit as badly as some of the others: Here’s Shel v BP and Brent since last December: https://invst.ly/12a5gv .

Prudently selling the peaks and buying the troughs to enhance the dividend income is what makes Shel such a great LTH. I’m still 50% out and looking for the right top-up levels and would probably go overweight if it sinks further than anticipated.

2450 (ie £3 below peak) is a tempting possibility but anything down to the bottom blue line (near 2325) is on the radar as far as I'm concerned.

In the context of yesterday's post, today's break upward suggests that the prospective orange trend I mentioned may have some legs: https://invst.ly/128zv2

The recent price pattern is typical for an sp that is levelling out after a fairly rapid decline.

Of three current trends, red, green and orange here, the sp will break at least one of them tomorrow, with 460 marking the next test if red pushes the sp back below 500:

https://invst.ly/1283kw

Last week saw a steep drop of about 4.5% in OP on Tuesday but, apart from that, a fairly average level of volatility which ultimately didn’t add to that figure, leaving Shel down less than 1% and faring somewhat better than the other three oil co’s in my weekly list:

https://invst.ly/1272db

That’s a deep and complex conversation, Driftking, with many aspects. Share Price is just one of a host of measurements that need to be taken in context.

A snapshot in time can also give a very different perspective depending on the period covered. Shel's sp is doing pretty well by comparison with the others since the low point of 2020: https://invst.ly/1268n7

The chart for nearly two decades looks like this:

https://invst.ly/126860

Each divergence on the chart will have its reasons: like the Macondo incident taking BP down in 2010. XOM’s borrowing levels leading up to 2020, differences in taxation and other HQ country specifics and laws - remembering that Shel was a Dutch company until recently. So I wouldn’t pin things entirely on the FTSE - especially as Shel is traded in other markets including the US and much of the accounting is in $ rather than GBP. It’s interesting to note that XOM fell back to comparable levels with Shel (in terms of sp over the entire period) in 2020 but, perhaps partly due to investor distribution policy, has recovered since then.

I'd say that what matters to an investor today are the current prospects - past performance is useful as a guide but it doesn't guarantee a good future investment

I re-acquired 50% of my long-term holding in Shel earlier today. Littleaston, at about 2575/share.

That's when I spotted my mistake about Divi-date - which you correctly associated with BP, as I now have a few of those because I didn't anticipate Shel dipping to my first target level as soon as it has. Depending on how the two proceed, I'd like to move more fully into Shel again. In the meantime, I'm looking for an improvement in BP which has lagged Shel since May (as I've explained in another thread). ATB.

Chart to illustrate the potential 'levelling out' mentioned in my previous post: https://invst.ly/1260tr

Since the last significant fall in sp (15th & 16th October), OCDO has averaged around the NDX index, whilst tracking MKS and AMZ rather more closely:

https://invst.ly/126089

(Always bearing in mind the US market timing differences for NDX and AMZ closing prices).

Volatility has reduced and, with a more positive long term trend (green) emerging but not yet established, it’s possible that the downward pressure (red) is at last being matched - possibly leading to a levelling out centred on 500. This is still, however, well above analyst targets and therefore reflects a degree of market expectation, perhaps based on assumptions regarding seasonal factors.

My apologies - not ex-div !! That's next Thursday (16th).

The comparison between Shel and BP since the 2022 FY results is quite stark, especially when seen in the context of OP:

https://invst.ly/125pid

BP' sp is currently lagging Shel by about 15% in this comparison.

Irrespective of M&A speculation, does BP's current performance suggest that there is more upside potential at BP?

What is going on this morning - SP falling at pace?....

It's ex-div day for one thing. Plus Oil saw a sharp drop yesterday.

https://invst.ly/125p9l (15 minute trading view)

The trend has been down for a week now, which is of interest to those who recently took profits an may be looking for a buyback level.

My comment didn’t actually contradict your points, Newdealz. In fact, I ended by saying it was the most positive day for a couple of months. No one knows where ‘rock bottom’ for OCDO will turn out to have been, the current turnaround could prove similar to many others we have seen here - like last March/April's run at around today’s price. OCDO’s sp has a history of being driven by optimism which, up to now, hasn’t been supported by results.