Member Info for Boyobach

Is the three month oil rally over?

A bit early to say, I think: https://invst.ly/11k4un and winter is on the way....

Ha! My encouraging response was a thinly veiled caution to toll's overly optimistic reaction to yesterday's end of day rise. Despite today's trading chart looking promising, the short-term daily trend, along with the medium and long term trends, is still downwards.

When the Grand Old Duke of York turns to march back up the hill his change of direction will be detected by the fact that he will fail to reach an expected place on his route and his horse will cross a strategically placed lane marker. If he wavers about then this too will be observed and measurable. I obviously haven't been buying OCDO today.

Not yet a breakout on the daily chart but, in terms of a 15’ trading view, a ray of sunshine for the sp this morning: https://invst.ly/11k1zb

I'm not tempted yet, onsolidground.

On this point from Valueplay: they [OCDO] ‘ve signed with Kroger in the US, so they can sign up with no other grocers in the US.

I assume that’s a mutual deal: Ie Kroger are also bound to use OCDO?

Newdealz asked: ‘Anyone got any thoughts on those gaps up ......’

I covered this yesterday with the following comment in a post where I deliberately avoided mentioning the price because it's all a bit raw here currently:

'…..One issue for me is that Exane’s target price lies at a gap I was concerned about at the time it appeared in June and I don’t think that is entirely coincidental. It’s not a factor I can overlook easily..'

Looking unlikely with 610 broken early on: https://invst.ly/11jjho

ATB caipi !

Shel has started to chase after XOM and the others this morning. The current run is quite exceptional, it’s almost as impressive as the ones we saw back in H1 last year.

https://invst.ly/11jj1n

2750 is now within range, barmy as that notion would have sounded to me a couple of weeks ago.

Valueplay: I think this link will supply some of the information - with a reference to Bethpage NY - that you're looking for:

https://retailtechinnovationhub.com/home/2023/1/16/h-e-b-develops-worlds-most-sophisticated-and-advanced-grocery-store-powered-by-autostore-tech

Happy days Nomad!

I'll probably wake up with a hangover though.

Well done caipi.

Today’s move by shel was partly in line with my optimism! : )

But, looking at the four oil cos v Brent since Friday, just over the halfway point, Shel is dragging its feet compared to the other three and would’ve been around 2670 if it was performing like XOM! :

https://invst.ly/11j9mr

I think there's more steam in this engine.

The sp is now just above 610 which does have some significant history as a support level: https://invst.ly/11j8o5

Whether it will survive this time around remains to be seen. I won’t be betting on it without seeing some reassuring chart indications concerning the likely direction of travel from there. One issue for me is that Exane’s target price lies at a gap I was concerned about at the time it appeared in June and I don’t think that is entirely coincidental. It’s not a factor I can overlook easily, although it does seem very low in view of the progress made since then with the Autostore case and improving prospects for both the retail and technology parts of the company - assuming that they get the M&S JV working as it should. It's still a matter of sitting on the sidelines for me.

That's cool, measured advice.

You don't think there's any chance it might drop to an even crazier good entry point do you?

https://invst.ly/11j6mc

Yes indeed Valueplay. Prior to that point, the M&S partnership hadn't been going well and something of a reset was underway.

Back in July, 'This Is Money' said: Shareholders welcomed news that Ocado Retail was back in the black in the second quarter but not everyone was convinced, with overall losses totalling almost £1.8bn since Ocado’s launch in 2000.

‘The numbers remain grim – time is running out for this story,’ said Clive Black, a retail analyst at Shore Capital. [Tim] Steiner admitted: ‘If we look back at where we were in 2019, and what we hoped the business would be trading at right now, obviously that’s disappointing.’

So the T/O rumour fired up something of an overreaction which then got fuelled by the genuinely good news regarding the court case with Autostore.

Too much noise obscuring the true value of what really mattered. It looks like the sp will be reset - but given that there has been some improvement since July, it shouldn't be right back to the bottom do you think?

After being tested a bit more this morning, the support price line at 645 finally gave way https://invst.ly/11j5yr bringing the next one at around 610 onto the radar: https://invst.ly/11j61g .

Perhaps, for once, I need to have a more optimistic outlook regarding the sp and its relationship with OP. This is because it has hung closer to 2600 for longer than the usual ‘hit a peak and retreat’ pattern, whilst OP has also paused rather than cycle back down. Back in March, when shel hit 2600 it was a fairly brief high brought to a rapid end by the global financial wobble. Had it not been for that crisis, would 2600 have been sustained and are we now just seeing a recovery to what might have been normal rather than a peak? On that basis it seems useful to rebase OP and shel to that March peak and look at the picture it produces:

https://invst.ly/11j3k-

Using that model would put shel at around 2830 today, which only seems fanciful in light of the reduced divi yield that would result. Maybe 2700 isn’t as much of a challenge as I’ve been thinking?

Given all the chat and rumour about OP continuing to above $100 - as per GAFG's post - makes it even more credible.

Https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/shell-ceo-comes-under-pressure-within-renewables-shift-2023-09-27/

Today’s total volume was apparently a bit higher than average at 675k ish - it’s often more like 300k according to this:

https://invst.ly/11iuvh

(Worth noting the much bigger volume on 15th Sept of 6.5million)

Transactions later in the afternoon today from 15.30 were as the sp was rising so mostly classed as ‘buys’ ie green in the chart below ( sells are ordinarily matched with buys, of course, so it’s a somewhat artificial categorisation based on the mid price) The low during that entire period is given as 309.00 according to this:

https://invst.ly/11iuxj

Although rather more volatile than the index, CWR’s sp has tracked the NASDAQ CELS index reasonably well over the last 12 months -

https://invst.ly/11imyo , with the drop from 24th July to today being quite consistent.

ITM has been on a similar path: https://invst.ly/11in52

As of 11 am, Shel appears to be about 70p above par compared to OP, which has been easing off over the last five days: https://invst.ly/11ijul