Member Info for Boyobach

A 15’ view of OCDO over the last week shows the price moves of last Thursday and the subsequent levelling out above 650 that is currently underway. There appears to be some ongoing downward pressure (orange) which has so far been resisted: https://invst.ly/11iic2

2250 could be a stretch KitIngold.

I reckon 2300 would be the limit currently, given the bottom blue trend here:

https://invst.ly/11hdos

But stranger things do happen where big oil is concerned and Shel is facing some headwinds as that article posted by Neversell pointed out. I’m not sure that all shareholders are happy with the current direction. I preferred BenVanB’s approach quite frankly and the current winding back on green energy initiatives and projects are marking Shel out as a dinosaur - and we all know what happened to them. At some point (probably after my day) shareholders may have to grab a parachute and jump. I’ve gone electric and discovered it ain’t so bad if you plan properly. And a damn sight cheaper too.

Another week but not another dollar for Brent which, despite a high approaching $96 in the week, settled about $0.5 down since last Friday at $93.3.

https://invst.ly/11hcnm

Still, with OP firm and another company’s CEO apparently predicting $100, Shel shows no sign of a retrace yet:

https://invst.ly/11hd3h

October’s run up to the Q3 results might be interesting.

Well it was a better day for OCDO than many, including me, would have been expecting. The volume didn’t match yesterday’s but was above average, so a fair vote of confidence on the face of it. No particular sign of shorters attempting to drive it back down, which was a potential risk as the day progressed. Hopefully those who rode out the storm will get some respite next week.

https://invst.ly/11hcg0

Technically I was being sloppy, Gioviano, mainly because I'm not contemplating buying or selling right now.

Checking the chart more closely, then the support could be slightly below 700 at 677.

https://invst.ly/11hbd3

Too fragile for me right now but it might hold and worth bearing in mind when setting stop loss.

I wish you well, Gioviano. Yesterday’s drop was a severe blow to many here. There’s been too much noise and volatility in the sp caused by TO speculation, shorting activity and associated conspiracy theories to make a good evaluation. Moving forward needs some calm reflection and analysis. It’s fighting back towards 700 this afternoon - a potential support level if it can grab onto it. However, after selling at 962, I won’t be tempted back in until I can be reasonably confident that the dust has truly settled. ATB.

Yes Chilting. OCDO is a trader’s and shorter’s dream.

There was 50p profit per share to be made from the bounce in the first two hours this morning. The time for LTH’s to sell has passed and the time to buy hasn’t yet been established imv. Long term investors should beware.

Many here had never heard of Exane so, if that was the main influence yesterday, it suggests that their influence was not amongst amateur PI’s but with institutions that have real market power. It’s not smart to bet against them.

Today’s 631 may turn out to have been the bottom but bounces are driven by a lot of factors, not least shorts reloading for another pop. So, although the sp has firmed up near 680 during the morning, it’s still too early to tell whether the bounce will level off and at what price things will stabilise.

https://invst.ly/11h7d4

631 isn’t an obvious support level and the recent trends, prior to the drop, were not encouraging:

https://invst.ly/11h6-u

I have found that it’s far better to prudently chase (add) to a rising sp than to recklessly average down with a falling one.

I won't be buying OCDO again for a while.

That's a good article from 2013, Valueplay, when Exane were promoting interest in OCDO. The stand out quote for me was: “Buying stocks on bid prospects alone is a dubious investment thesis at best' . Utterly correct. The article also points out that, at that time, 'the City is still concerned that the business, which is yet to make a profit, has capacity and growth issues.'

SFH: The Autostore news had hit a couple of days prior and had already triggered a response of around 14% , including a gap up, so the 27% was on top of that. Perhaps OCDO’s sp movements indicate more about its investors than about the company’s actual performance and realistic prospects.

There can be no denying OCDO’s volatility and its investors should be fully aware of the risks here. It’ll be interesting to see how today’s volume and closing price compares with yesterday’s.

Someone commented that yesterday’s 20% fall was ridiculous, yet the rise of 27% in a day, on 26th July, didn’t attract similar thoughts here. But it’s par for the course with OCDO and a return to £4 can’t be ruled out. Those that buy it must be prepared to trade it.

OCDO is a speculative investment and very sensitive to news and rumour. After 23 years it’s not sufficiently profitable to pay dividends and perhaps that’s because it is two distinct but related businesses with entirely different objectives and strategies. It's not a typical model for success.

Yes - today’s sp tested above the line but closed less than 2p above yesterday’s finish. So it’s not making a convincing attack on 2600. It also seems reliant on OP, which appears to have driven the climb over nearly two months: https://invst.ly/11gvga .

Because of the heavy dependence on OP and the unpredictable nature of that commodity, it’s anyone’s guess what happens next.

The knife is finally falling and the 700 gap got filled. However, I’ve never found it smart to buy in these circumstances before the bottom has been established. Has the bubble of TO speculation been fully deflated? Exane clearly don’t think so and, unpopular as their view may be here, it’s hard to build a solid counter argument on business performance alone. OCDO remains a speculative proposition.

'todays low was 1121'...... ?

I don't understand... 722 is the intraday low so far. And what's the coincidence between either of those numbers with your target of 1181?

Only if the Rotterdam thing also affected OP, I think.

After sticking tight to Brent for two days, which it obviously can’t do outside LSE market hours, Shel tested lower this morning but didn’t follow OP down quite as tightly - absorbing much of the dip as Brent started to recover. They were pretty much back in step at the close, with Shel following Brent on a ratio of 27.5x https://invst.ly/11gajw

Ultimately, Shel managed to stay within its month long rising trend, whilst Brent didn't manage to do the same:

Shel: https://invst.ly/11gas0

Brent: https://invst.ly/11gb2p

Let’s not forget that Shel’s dividend is currently running at 70% of the historic trusted and consistent rate it was paying in 2018 when RDSB peaked at £28.41. Had divi performance been maintained or restored, the sp could reasonably be expected to be around £35 today, placing Shel back on a comparable footing with CVX and XOM, which it has lagged since cutting the divi. For an income investment like Shel, the sp is bound to be related to anticipated yield and this, more than anything, puts a lid on expectations above £26. Still, share buybacks are supposed to be just as good as divis for investors aren't they?

When Shell moved to the UK from the Netherlands the separation of A and B shares was no longer required because the issue of Dutch withholding tax, payable on ‘A’ share dividends, was removed, Although today's sp is effectively a continuation of RDSB, charts of prices before that date seem to use the A share price, presumably because that was the main market price for investors subject to tax in Shell’s base country. My understanding was that, because they were not subject to the withholding tax on dividends, B shares were proportionately more expensive. I have noted the highest closing prices as 2748 for RDSA and 2841 for RDSB achieved on 21/5/2018 .

Brent almost reached $96 but has just dropped out of it’s month long upward trend: https://invst.ly/11g01x

Whether it will resume remains to be seen but I had already decided to lock-in some of my sp gain yesterday by selling a second tranche representing a further 20% of my August holding. I don’t intend to part with any more below £27 but trading decisions are invariably made on the spot depending on market moves. A pull-back seemed about due but the green trend here may well have further to go, whilst blue seems set for the long term: https://invst.ly/11g0ds .

It’ll be interesting to see how the sp reacts today.

£26 was likely to offer significant resistance but Brent’s continued strength does make Shel look rather undervalued currently. Here’s the comparison since February: https://invst.ly/11fizp

Well we've certainly got the answer to this one Gioviano. https://invst.ly/11d9a2

With a gap down too, so possible freefall for a bit,,, to 700?

I personally doubt that it’ll get to 2700, Nomad,

At the end of March it climbed by about a £1 per week over three weeks, which was an exceptional run. If repeated then it could get to the resistance at around 2620 in the current run. But it’s already hitting the top of a couple of trend lines (green, blue and a potential red): https://invst.ly/11d8xs

The Q3 results are due on 2nd of November and, if it’s going to make it to 2700, I’d say that would be a target date,