Member Info for Boyobach

That’s a fair point, Chilting ,about the NASDAQ. OCDO follows it except when it doesn’t: https://invst.ly/115sje

ie when not much else is influencing the sp.

This morning’s move has challenged my current indicator (the red falling trend):

https://invst.ly/115so5

It’s far too early to say if it will become significant.

OCDO certainly seems to trigger the FOMO (fear of missing out) reaction from some investors and the last 24 hours have seen a small bounce on low volumes that seems premature to me. I think it will prove fragile but OCDO is always capable of surprises.

An increasingly rare ‘up day’ today - but volume was about half average level at just under 1M according to Investing.com: https://invst.ly/115i2t

Buyers today were seemingly unconcerned about the overall picture and must therefore be convinced that the sp is about to turn.

Re-entry at 500 say you?

Not necessarily - it may hit 500 and still be falling. I'd need to see a change of trend - ie it must break through red at the very least and also be at a level that seems to be indicating firm support. I'm not much interested above 560, although I suspect that it might well turn between 560 and 600. The upcoming Q3 Trading results are another factor - will they excite or disappoint the market?

Many of us have experienced disappointments with OCDO, Olmedo. But it has also provided opportunities - albeit risky ones.

I got a bit ahead of myself last night when I said OCDO was well ‘into the gap’ - it was actually on the upper edge of it at that stage. However, it has moved decisively into it today and we've seen some acceleration this afternoon with the gravitational pull down towards the next level of support which I’d place at around 680 in this 15 minute candle view:

https://invst.ly/114-o8

The chart also shows the latter stages of the eleven week green rising trend which lifted OCDO up from its 345 low point in early June. The sp fell back through it on Friday, overcome by red - which has not been tested much as the sp descends back through this summer’s support levels. I’ll be watching for a break in red as sign of a potential levelling out or reversal, which will ultimately be governed either by residual market sentiment following the recent volatility or by solid news.

Optimists will hope that 600 will hold if tested, whilst others will see a return to lower 'pre-hype' levels.

Two trading days on from my last post and OCDO is moving pretty much as anticipated and is now well into the gap: https://invst.ly/114nrr

It should pause at 700 but that level hasn't historically provided as much support as 615, so I'm not convinced it will stop there.

£26 is the post-2019 maximum reached last March, Char, so it’s a recently established ‘top’ in terms of current OP levels and dividend policy but I wouldn’t suggest that it’s a limit. Indeed, I’d like to see Shel progress well beyond that level. I’ve often pointed out that if Shel’s sp was restored to match that of CVX, as it did prior to the divi cut in 2020, it would be over £30 today. The Q3 results have previously sparked a rise in Shel - and other oil co’s - so I’m reasonably optimistic about the possibility of a rise in sp over the next couple of months.

I’m not surprised to see the shorts increasing, Chilting, and I won’t be betting against them.

Having lingered around 800 for a couple of days, which did ease the steepness of the red falling trend slightly, the pull back has resumed. Without the ‘hot air’ of news or takeover speculation, the balloon was bound to lose height. To what level though? https://invst.ly/113dj9

Here’s how the week has gone so far for the usual four oil co’c v Brent since last Friday at 16.30: https://invst.ly/113dhu

Fairly unremarkable, with Shel in the middle of the field as I type, so I won’t be updating it tomorrow unless something significant happens

Today saw a positive change in direction char, time will tell, of course...

Having tested and retreated from the downward pressure of the dominant four month red trend over the last four days, Shel did at least bounce when it met the upward pressure of green today:

https://invst.ly/113dp6

So maybe that will arrest this week’s fall and eventually lead to another test of red - which has marked the upper limit for the past four months. It’ll be the third knock on that particular door, so should have a fair a prospect of succeeding if it gets there. But ,if it does continue down, then I've got some cash ready to take advantage of any opportunities.

Yes GFG & LittleAston.: With Shel having quarterly dividends the effect of the ex-div discount is markedly less than with companies that have one main and one smaller interim. So it can sometimes have negligible impact compared to other market influences.

Little Aston: your spare ammunition may well come in useful given the negative days since ex-div, Shel had seemed poised to break out of the doldrums it fell into in March, when it dropped to 2150, but market weakness since Thursday has taken the wind out of the sails - temporarily I hope! I’m looking to see if the green trend here holds: https://invst.ly/112qp6 , having added at the current price a while back. I’ll add some more if it drops back towards the blue.

GFG re selling on ex-div day (10/8): ‘this is the point the shares usually take a dive!’

A particularly lucky move this time around because last week’s ex-div was unusual in that the sp went up during the day. It opened lower, as is usual, to compensate buyers for the fact they wouldn’t receive the dividend but then rose above the previous day’s close. The dive that came the following day was linked to a general market drop rather than a pull back triggered by ex-div: https://invst.ly/112pw2

It’s fairly unusual to sell at a top price and also get the div. More often, folks sell into ex-div (ie prior to it) in the hope that the sp will drop more than the dividend over the following days. Nice move GFG.

There's no conspiracy Getefgrip, just duff information. Share deals ultimately involve a seller and a buyer. I recalled an old article about SETS, which basically says this:

AT trades are trades directly between buyers and sellers, without the intermediary of the middle-man. So what are they? The online services will tell you they are buys or sells, depending on whether the execution price was above or below the current mid-price. But in fact, they are neither one nor the other - they are BOTH. Hence the way AT trades are treated by all of the online services is misleading, both in terms of total volume and in terms of buy/sell balance.

Since March of last year, I would characterise OP has having fallen broadly into five price steps, as shown here in a chart of Shel’s sp in the context of OP:

https://invst.ly/112di4

It’s noticeable that Shel has remained relatively resilient to the lows in OP - which has fallen significantly from the initial step 1. What is also evident is the reducing level of volatility in Shel’s sp since the financial glitch of last March, which abruptly ended step 3 and Shel’s peak performance so far this year. As we continue into Q3 it will be interesting to see whether Shell recovers some of the 9% it has lost relative to OP since then. A recovery seems overdue to me.

1180 is an interesting number - how did you arrive at it?

Having failed to hold 860, the current short term trend (15’ view - red https://invst.ly/112cme ) has become quite well established and its rate of fall matches the opposite rising rate of the green trend that dominated from late June through to last month’s spike. So, unless/until it gets broken (perhaps by the trading statement in a month's time) it sets an indicator for the next couple of months. There are, of course, a couple of levels at which the retrace might halt and a full return to around 400 seems unlikely given the conclusion of the Autostore dispute and associated settlement plus the potential market value that the recent takeover rumours revealed. 680-700 is the most obvious immediate target level because it would take care of the large gap that now seems likely to get filled. Then a longer term view would suggest that a more solid foundation may be found near 600: https://invst.ly/112cvu .Hopefully that would see the limit of the retrace, although OCDO’s continuing lack of net profit will surely continue to weigh on the price.

I agree Gioviano.

I jumped ship at around 950 but have been watching closely and will continue to do so as I'm still interested at the right price. I had been underwater with OCDO since April but the recent moves have provided trading opportunities that have gone my way and so that is now fixed. I'll buy back at the right price - if it gets there - and I think I've given enough clues to indicate what region that might be in, although there's no guarantee that it'll get there. At least the recent peak has shown what OCDO's sp is capable of at the drop of a hat with the right stimulus.

Not at all good .... mind the gap too!

https://invst.ly/111qkd

Is Shel finally about to break out from the negative trend that has limited the sp since the banking crisis of March?

Up until then, Shel had been steadily trending higher (blue in the chart), with peaks in sp approaching 2600, but the US banking issues, which quickly spread globally, abruptly put paid to that and the sp has since been pushed to a lower level by the more dominant orange trend here: https://invst.ly/111ppb

That downward pressure is currently being tested and it’s blue v orange at the moment. Perhaps, the pre-March trajectory is about to resume?

Shel tracked OP pretty tightly last week, which led to the sharp drop on Friday morning because Brent had fallen overnight: https://invst.ly/111gng . Brent has dropped slightly since the market closed on Friday but, as can be seen, that didn’t seem to affect XOM or CVX too adversely, so Shel might remain buoyant.

Unless it does drop back, Shel currently looks poised to break through the upper orange downward trend line here:

https://invst.ly/111goa , which would mark a significant positive move if it climbs aboard the blue trend just above it, especially if the chat here about OP remaining firm turns out to be correct.

Ha! OK - I assumed as much but just wanted to check.

After allowing for about 26p ex-div drop today, Shel still looks about 80p below par relative to OP and my 30 day moving average of the ratio between the two. However, the sp is always a bit reluctant to pursue Brent when it goes to the extremes of its trading range. So I’m hoping for a further lift if OP remains firm and as the sp normalises from ex-div. Here’s how the usual oil cos have moved since last Friday’s close: https://invst.ly/110ko5 with Shel performing quite respectably given the ex-div discount.