Member Info for Boyobach

When OP hit a peak of $87 in April, Shel investors weren’t buying the associated sp, which would have been around £26. and the ceiling held at 2475 before it fell further to the recent 2420. Now that OP is retreating from May’s brief $78 peak, Shel is dropping more linearly at around 30p per $: https://invst.ly/1081om It’s a familiar pattern. I won't be buying whilst the sp follows OP downwards as there could easily be another quid to come off today's price, even more if OP goes sub $70.

Brent may have hit $78.6 over the UK Bank Holiday but it has dropped back to roughly Friday’s level this evening and, despite being in an 18 day uptrend, is back below the nominal $78 ceiling reached last week. Will it break above it or simply cycle back down as this week progresses?

https://invst.ly/107q12

Shel had already broken downwards last Thursday in apparent anticipation of OP cycling back down, which was also my guess, so I think the question for tomorrow is whether Shel’s nominal 2350p level will hold if OP continues to fall back towards $72, as seems likely to me :

https://invst.ly/107faq

The weekly chart of how Shel, XOM, CVX and BP moved against Brent and each other last week:

https://invst.ly/10716g - nothing remarkable to see there, oil is edging up week on week but the Oil co's aren't reacting.

Today’s price ‘candle’ on Shel’s daily tick chart is as ‘indecisive’ as they come: https://invst.ly/10718j

OP looks settled in the $72-$78 range for the time being:

https://invst.ly/1071e0

I do recommend following Javier Blas on Twitter. Here’s a quote about today’s chart on the current theme of KSA in this thread:

"Saudi Arabia is snapping up millions of barrels of Russian diesel that Europe no longer allows, while simultaneously sending its own supplies back to buyers in the EU."

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1661721033089470464?s=20

I enjoyed the sing-along at the AGM :'Go to H*** Sh*** and don't you come back no more....' to the tune of 'Hit the road Jack' wasn't it?

A bit like our dividend in fact, that cash reduction in our income has seemingly gone to H*ll never to return. It's certainly not heading into my bank account anytime soon. Buybacks? When someone puts a value in p per share capital gain resulting from the buybacks then I might pay them some attention.

Well I'm glad you're bullish Ribeye, I would certainly like to see a lift before the summer quiet spell sets in.

People often make a fuss about ‘driving season’ in the US stimulating oil demand but, fairly obviously, the refineries need to have catered for that demand increase in advance and so there’s often a little peak or two in OP ahead of June, with the next coming in after the three summer months, ie in September/October. The sabre rattling at OPEC+ in the last couple of days adds a clue: OPEC+ make noises when OP looks like weakening - after all, if demand is strong there’s no need to do or say much is there? I’m frankly not expecting OP to be doing anything spectacular in the next few months and am even prepared for something of a drop - although I do expect OPEC+ to step in to try and maintain $70.

After the AGM and today’s retreat as Brent tumbled, Shel seems unlikely to do anything spectacular either, I had hoped to see another trip to 2470 but now I’m just hoping we don’t see a lethargic slide to 2160 with no useful trading opportunities on the way.

https://invst.ly/106mae

As ever, we have to be prepared for a move either way.

This is a more interesting article about it than the first three or four paragraphs led me to think. And it does include this rather important point:

"The global picture of oil is not that demand has grown exponentially; it’s that production has been savaged by OPEC+ in order to create the illusion of a super bullish market. Demand is only where it was four years ago, before the pandemic, and could get only a little better going forth.”

https://uk.investing.com/analysis/oil-with-production-weapon-in-hand-saudis-dirty-harry-threatens-bears-200577829

Ha! Soup is called ‘cawl’ here Getafgrip and the ladies hats can be more pointy than bowlers.

Both OP and Shel are presently relatively steady, with the former staying within the $74- $78 band for over a fortnight:

https://invst.ly/105e0y

whilst Shel’s sp has narrowed to the 2400-2420 range, only very briefly testing 2430 (no need for me to eat my hat after all).

https://invst.ly/105d-k .

This is how they both fit into the longer term context of the past twelve months:

https://invst.ly/105du3

How long will this last? I wonder. I agree that a divi boost would certainly change the picture.

Ha - I think I may just put my soup in the bowler, Getafgrip.

Unfortunately, Brent took away the support but as you and LittleAston point out there's lots of scope here for a push upwards and Shel really is strong against OP at the moment - it has absorbed the drop from $86, after all.

GLA

With Brent falling back under $76 to around the middle of this week’s range, it’s not surprising that Shel also dropped back from this morning’s highs and ended below my 2420 ceiling. The other oil co’s performed similarly over the entire week:

https://invst.ly/104hu6

That said, it’s easy to forget how well the sp is doing against OP compared to early April when the current sp needed Brent to be around $10 more at $86:

Shell v Brent in context: https://invst.ly/104huh

Well I may have to eat my hat... a different feel about Shel today as this red & green wedge on the daily chart adequately demonstrates: https://invst.ly/104fw9

Could be quite spectacular if it keeps going. BP doing similar today BTW.

Whatever OP (orange) does, Shel’s sp (red) is very reluctant to go much over 2400 currently, and 2420 is something of a ceiling:

https://invst.ly/1043yx (15’ Brent v Oil Majors this week)

You never know with OP BarrieV - and nor does anyone else. Today saw a sharp $3 rise but not enough to propel the sp much over 2400 methinks. 2420 max maybe? :

https://invst.ly/103o5y

Are you a rebrand of Barrieprov BTW ? I may now understand where the prov came from :-)

By Questor’s own definition: ‘Anyone who isn’t confused really doesn’t understand the situation.’ it follows that Questor is as confused as the rest of us.

In the broader context of OP v SP, Brent has dropped a bit since Friday, so it will continue to test the resilience of the sp which depends as much on the volumes and margins of products being handled/produced as on the underlying OP. https://invst.ly/102b9x

Neveresell:

Today’s sp trades in the 2200-2600 range which is much as it was in 2019, when OP was trading between $57 and $70.

The dividend was about 50% higher then, of course - so PI’s who have held shares through the entire period without trading are worse off now than they were in 2019.

I wouldn’t say we are very lucky. I would say that investors have yet to see the full recovery in value from the 2020 crash in sp and divi.

Brent 15’ chart from 16.30 last Friday, with Shel, XOM, CVX and BP rebased

https://invst.ly/101paf

Shel slightly positive at the close but staying roughly level overall, the others more negative since Wednesday and down by about 2% overall.

Brent heading towards $72 unless something changes and putting downward pressure on Shel’s sp:

https://invst.ly/101pgt

Shel did get to 2420 today with Brent briefly at $77.6 before they both slipped back. Here are the usual four oil co’s v Brent since last Friday’s LSE close:

https://invst.ly/1004pd (15’ Brent)

Brent was up 2.5% whilst XOM, CVX and BP were all over 1% down, whilst Shel was very slightly up.

Since the end of July last year, Brent has dropped into two price bands:

August-November, broadly $86-$100

December-April, broadly $78-$86 (with a dip to $72 during the banking glitch)

It may now be taking a further step down with $78 at the top of the latest band:

https://invst.ly/--t09

Shel, meanwhile, had risen to mostly occupy the 2250-2500 range, with a couple of visits to 2600. Recent performance against OP suggests it is in retreat although it resisted the recent OP drop to $72, remaining above 2300. Nevertheless, 2400 looks like it could be the current ceiling if Brent remains below $78.

Looks like OP is just levelling out, with $77 near the top and, hopefully, the bottom remaining above $70:

https://invst.ly/--rdq

With supply easily meeting demand at present, there doesn't seem much prospect of a return to the $80+ range.

Yes Neversell.... maybe this will break that downward trend.