Member Info for Boyobach

Shel is holding up well so far this week considering that OP is down nearly $3 compared to last Friday but Shel is only 5p off:
https://invst.ly/-tad8
I may have to wait a bit longer to buy back that last trading tranche!

Has shell reinstated the dividend?
No: I make it about 60% of the 2019 level.
You can check it here:
https://www.shell.com/investors/dividend-information/dividend-announcements.html

When OP eased further below $86 today - it started to remove the support underpinning Shel’s potential progress above 2450.
https://invst.ly/-syfl
So I decided to take my profit from the trading tranche sitting at the top of my Shel holding.
I’m very mindful of the gaps that occurred on the 3rd and 6th of this month and, even though the first was due to a sharp weekend rise in OP, I am sure they will both fill at some point, potentially taking the price back to around 2330:
https://invst.ly/-syew
But if the sp swings back upwards then there’s plenty of scope for me to take advantage of that too. There is, after all, a possible £1.30 upside based on early March performance at the current OP.

.....and just to demonstrate my last point, a drop in OP certainly did influence the sp:
https://invst.ly/-sn6h

It's good to see Shel continue its march upwards above the 2450 line without extra support from OP this morning, in fact Brent has eased very slightly:
https://invst.ly/-sh6l

A cautionary point though: whilst OP may not be pushing the sp up at the moment it continues to provide support and a drop in OP would still probably influence the sp.

Looking at how OP is being managed, Larry, I would say that OPEC+ have their eye on the financial ball rather than the political, but it does fit well with China's moves - I just think it's a win win for them in that respect.
Europe buying US 'sweet' rather than KSA product is interesting. Clearly the US - Saudi relationship isn't what it was. The US is stepping in, I'd say, whilst the shale region still has some potential and before it starts to go into decline I seem to recall that US refineries were not particularly set-up to process the sweeter product.

Friday’s article about the IEA’s oil demand outlook (see Larry’s post) suggests OP will rise later this year despite quite ‘underwhelming’ demand in developed OECD countries. So the immediate question is whether $87 will be, as I’ve suggested, a ceiling for Brent in the meantime. The next few days might provide an indication. Prior to mid March, Shel’s sp reached 2600 with OP at current levels so, if Brent does stall next week, will Shel continue above the green trend here, like it did in February: https://invst.ly/-saag or will it pull back?
Either way, I think it’ll give a good indication of market sentiment.

US v KSA :
from the article:
European refiners did not rush to replace Russian crude with similar quality Middle Easter medium sour crude, and instead changed their crude slates, favouring lighter, sweeter crudes like those produced by the United States, the IEA said.

No political influence there, I'm sure.

With articles like this about OP ‘edging higher’ today,
https://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/crude-oil-edges-higher-after-iea-forecast-record-demand-this-year-2984964
it’s worth noting that OP actually peaked at just over $87 yesterday before dropping back today.
Shel, meanwhile, managed to finish the week ‘on par’ with Brent since last week's pre-Easter close:
https://invst.ly/-s2n3
Now that OP is near its 5 month ceiling, any further improvement in Shel’s sp won’t be assisted by it unless Brent breaks through the $87 barrier:
https://invst.ly/-s2m2

That's interesting, Nomad.
I don’t follow ADR’s and always assumed that, because of arbitrage, they and the main London sp track each other very closely during their overlapping trading hours. Because of the timing gap, closing prices will be out of sync and can give a distorted perception but not to the extent I saw when I added ADRs to the context chart:
https://invst.ly/-ry16

I assume exchange rates, taxation issues and trading margins by the depository banks that actually hold the shares would be the only reasons for significant differences to occur between ADRs and the underlying stock. ‘News’ would surely be a common factor affecting both the underlying stock and the ADRs.

So, until there’s a significant change in market sentiment towards Shel, as Brent moves within its recent trading band (orange) then it seems likely that Shel will remain within its corresponding red band.
.https://invst.ly/-rro6

Following today’s market moves, and as I posted earlier under ‘context’, I really do think Shel may have hit the buffers as far as its relationship with Brent is concerned, with 28x $/bbl possibly settling as the ‘new’ underlying relationship following the banking crisis of last month:
https://invst.ly/-rr69

Anything that weakens US, EU & UK is economically good for China and so they will support Russia and others (eg Iran).
Expanding influence and control is a natural strategy for any major power.
There's ultimately a hidden cost for buying Chinese goods and relying too heavily on their industry.
Taiwan is obviously on their list.

Both Shel and BP have been reluctant to follow Brent upwards this week:
https://invst.ly/-rn2t
Looking at the long term context of Shel’s relationship with Brent since last summer, it seems possible that Shel may have reached something of a ceiling:
https://invst.ly/-rn4c

1) OP has levelled out since November after falling back from last summer.
2) OPEC seem to have established a price range that they largely control.
3) The banking ‘crisis’ caused a glitch that disturbed that range.
4) Shel’s strength post the 2022 Results has been negated by the banking issue
5) Shel is currently back to its pre-results relationship with Brent at roughly 28x OP
6) Shel and Brent appear to be back in the flat trading range that began last November.

Brent v Shel so far this week…
https://invst.ly/-rg1r
Oil over $87 this evening: https://invst.ly/-rg4v
Useful to know the buybacks are still in progress - it rules out any speculation that the relatively weak sp recently is due to a buyback pause.

Re buybacks, Getafgrip: I dislike them but I’ve had to learn and accept that they are classified as a ‘distribution’ just the same as dividends. However, they only seem to benefit shareholders who sell their shares and realise the gain that buybacks theoretically bring by underpinning the sp. My own view is that they are over-rated and lowly PI’s don’t get much out of them.
In practice, there may never be a ‘last shareholder’ as any ‘winding up’ or sale, if it ever happens will apply to a very large group. Shel could morph into any number of other businesses (see tobacco industry and others for history on how that goes) but there’ll always be some need for O&G.

So we are underway in the post-Easter week, with Brent starting at almost the same price this morning as it ended on Thursday:
https://invst.ly/-r2-b
At the close, Shel was still below the 29x ratio we’ve typically seen of late since it dropped back from 31x - that’s basically worth about 170p off the price we were seeing between the 2022FY results and mid March: https://invst.ly/-r3dn

Jefferies has a 'buy rating' on Shell and a 2,363p price target.'?
It looks like they've quoted Wednesday's closing price rather than Jefferies target, which apparently remains unchanged at £30 according to Market Screener :

04/06/2023 | 09:57am BST [US date style]

In a research note published by Giacomo Romeo, Jefferies advises its customers to buy the stock. The target price continues to be set at GBX 3000.

Yep!
I hope he doesn't disappoint, Getafgrip!, I may set a stop loss - just in case!

You were possibly right Getafgrip.
After stumbling through the week, Shel finally made up for it and passed BP.
A bit like the tortoise and the hare I guess.
To give some context, I’ve added Chevron (CVX) to the week’s chart, which shows all three oilers against Brent. The solid horizontals are when oil is being traded but the other markets are closed: https://invst.ly/-q1k2

So Shel’s performance is roughly back at January (ie pre results) levels wrt OP: https://invst.ly/-q1ir

As we know, Shel’s peaks after the 2022FY results ended abruptly when March madness hit the banks.
On March 2nd, Shell hit 2600+ when Brent was at its current price (near $85 - brown dashed line marks it out).