Member Info for Boyobach

... and still heading downwards this evening:

https://invst.ly/--d6x

(15 min view over three weeks)

.... this morning. Struggling against the prevailing three week trend, with $77 proving elusive:

https://invst.ly/--0vt

Teetering on the edge of dropping back.

Links aren't working on LSE at the moment but you can copy and paste them if you want to view the charts - just be sure not to include any full stops that come at the end of them.

The first link has one, so here's a cleaner version:

https://invst.ly/-zrrw

So here’s the 15’ chart of Brent v Oil Co’s since Friday’s LSE close up to today’s Wall St close at 9pm BST:

https://invst.ly/-zrrw .

Shel & BP obviously haven’t moved but, ultimately, neither have CVX and XOM. Brent is up 2%, meanwhile, and it did exceed $77 at times today, testing the three week decline in price (red):

https://invst.ly/-zrsm

Maybe it’ll finish the job tomorrow as it only needs to maintain $77 to do it. Regaining $78 would obviously be a welcome step but there’s no guarantees. So Shel looks set to be flat tomorrow.

Brent is back up to $76 this morning but the big question is whether it’ll be over $75 on Friday or will it finish a fourth week in decline under the red line here:

https://invst.ly/-zhsg (15’ view)

With Q1 results in for BigOil this week it’s good to see Shel come out top of my usual suspects (XOM, CVX, BP, Shel) for the week since last Friday’s LSE close: https://invst.ly/-yxf6

Although yesterday made a promising but indecisive start, Brent finally did break upwards today, the question is whether it will last: https://invst.ly/-yxe0

The Brent v Shel context is now very interesting: https://invst.ly/-yxei
This week’s Brent low only took Shel down to 2308, whereas a month ago Shel would’ve sunk to around 2160. Yet Brent at $86 (its approximate ceiling since November) failed to drive Shel above 2500 last month. If Brent steadies around $80 +/- $7, so maybe Shel will settle into the rather tight 2400-2500 range through the summer?

Shell's RNS's are all available here:
https://www.shell.com/investors/news-and-filings/uk-regulatory-announcements.html

I hope it works, Getagrip, but I think that 'Report Post' thing is for complaints about an abusive post or one that breaks the rules and marks one that should be removed.
If you find you need someone to say you're of good character, I'll back you up. (smiley face)

Brent up today? Hmm… kinda.... https://invst.ly/-yeh2 .......not exactly breaking back up!
(noting that it’s $0.5 up this evening since the LSE close)

Shell holding its own today, to be fair ….https://invst.ly/-yeiu

Some articles are questioning whether BigOil's current performance can be sustained with OP falling. People forget that Shel's sp today is at 2019 levels when OP was below $65 for much of the time, oil co's were more in debt and were spending more on exploration and development. Now they are buying shares and cancelling them so shareholders get bigger dividends as they own a bigger percentage of the company per share..... wait a minute.... is that last bit right?

London South East hasn't had RNS's from Shel since March 1st, it's obviously broken but no easy means of reporting it.

Well I was braced for the worst but the initial reaction today is better than I anticipated.

Getafgrip: I've always thought CVX is a good comparison for Shel. I'd be delighted if Shel could regain the parity it had prior to the divi cut, which remains a sore point with me as I'm not a fan of share buy-backs. The sp is back to 2019 levels but the dividend isn't, so loyal long term holders have seen no capital gain, the divi is two thirds what it was yet the company is doing much better. So PI's ,who held during the intervening years, have seen zero tangible benefit from buy-backs and arguably made a loss if they sold shares in order to prop-up their income.

Health is way more important. Barrie
Hope you're ok and wishing you well.

With OP falling and Shel resisting, the inevitable result is a record ratio (for recent times) of sp to OP (32.5x). Can it be sustained? Well yes if sentiment is strong enough but not if the results are a carbon copy (pro green joke) of BP’s.
This is how Shel, XOM, CVX and BP have fared so far since last Friday’s LSE close:
https://invst.ly/-xqq0
Shel appears to be at least £1 over where it might ordinarily be expected to be, possibly £2.
Tomorrow needs to be stunning to meet the level of expectation built into the current price IMO.

So the BP guy wants to get their sp back on track with XOM and CVX?
Interesting. Here they are from mid 2018: https://invst.ly/-xlo5
By that measure, BP is about 50% down on the other two.
Now I’ll add Shel: https://invst.ly/-xlsd
It’s a similar shortfall and the standout differences are that BP and Shel cut their divis and have arguably been exposed to more ‘green’ issues and policies. BP additionally had significant Russian asset/business connections that it has pulled out from at a cost.

If Shel also has a similar plan- to return to parity with their US cousins - then there’s a lot of potential upside. A very big ‘IF’ , of course.

Having just concluded my recent trading cycle with a buy-back, I’m ‘equal weight’ with my LT holding in Shel. I realise that it may well drop further but there’s a bit of a coin-flip in terms of what may be in the results, so I’m happy to have topped back up to par.
Nevertheless, the FED, OP and the markets all seem to be pointing down at the moment. So, if it does fall further then I’ll probably add but at what level? The blue trend at the bottom here is one obvious target and suggests around 2200:
https://invst.ly/-xjsi
I’ve found that prudently trading the up down cycles with part of my holding boosts my income from Shel significantly. Last year my income from trades was six times what I earned from divis. One day, of course, the golden goose may die - it’s not knowing when to bail that causes most investor failures.

With US production back near record levels, there'll now be downward pressure on OP.
Hopefully we won't see the crazy global overproduction and price war driven by the debt servicing of US Shale companies in the boom-bust cycles that occurred between 2014 and 2020, which led to the crash in OP immediately prior to COVID.
Shel should be good above $60 but we should be prepared to see Brent fall below $70.

According to this article, the first third of 2023 U.S. oil production had the potential to surpass the previous annual record set in 2019. While it remains a close call, the EIA’s projections for 2023 and 2024 agree that the industry is on track to achieve new records in the coming years. This growth will undoubtedly help blunt the influence of OPEC and Russia on the U.S. economy and energy landscape.

https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/us-on-pace-to-set-a-new-oil-production-record-this-year?post=394312

BP results day didn’t go so well, due partly to wider market issues. It was down from the start whilst Shel and Brent hung on through the morning but they all tumbled along with XOM and CVX when the US market opened:
Here are the moves since Friday for Brent, Shel, BP, XOM and CVX:
https://invst.ly/-x95j
At least Shel’s gap is pretty much sorted:
https://invst.ly/-x9d3

Well we now know which way the coin flipped.
Brent is now well down since OPEC announced their production cut in March:
https://invst.ly/-x9ep

BP down 5% this morning following their results....