Member Info for Boyobach

Brent is at another decision point and, as usual, keeping us guessing:
https://invst.ly/-x0g8

Cheers char!
GL to all for Thursday.

Interesting to see the drop in XOM today, compared to CVX. I wonder how Shel will move tomorrow? Here are the three of them on my Brent comparison chart since Friday’s LSE close: Brent only down around 1%, CVX very slightly down but XOM down 4%. I don't know why XOM was hit harder.
https://invst.ly/-wwyk

OT: PFC
Blimey Nightpusher ! I haven’t looked at PFC for a long while and I can see why gaps are suddenly relevant there! A sign of obvious volatility at high volumes that is currently going the wrong way:
https://invst.ly/-wovy
I can’t see one positive thing about the PFC chart over the last three years, which includes the SFO wrapping up their case, the last cash raise and the slide below 100p:
https://invst.ly/-worb
It looks hopeless to me - Why are you considering it?

I don’t want to put too much of a damper on Friday’s rally but it’s worth taking a look at the OP trend over the last three weeks, here’s a 15’ view:
https://invst.ly/-wokb
Friday didn’t exactly smash out of it and, in reality, OP is now back to the level it was at when OPEC cut production. In the meantime, we know that Russia is selling loads of the stuff to India who are refining it and selling it to the EU and US.
https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1651934534315769862?s=20
So there isn’t exactly a shortage of refined product.
Meanwhile, the likes of XOM, CVX and Shel have been rising in sp despite the relative slump in OP:
https://invst.ly/-wol8
On the plus side, XOM and CVX are sitting on record cash piles and so, presumably, is Shel
So how is all this going to turn out over coming weeks?
The UK has a Bank Holiday tomorrow but I believe ICE and US markets will be doing business as usual.

Following up on Littleaston's mention of the CVX and XOM results helping to lift Shel on Friday:

How Shel, Exxon and Chevron’s sps have moved since OP peaked last June: https://invst.ly/-wif8
How OP, Shel, Exxon and Chevron’s sps have moved since 2019: https://invst.ly/-wig6
(Noting that Shel was the only one to cut dividends)
How OP, Shel, Exxon and Chevron’s sps have moved since 2014: https://invst.ly/-wiho
Exxon & Chevron apparently have too much cash:
https://www.reuters.com/article/exxon-mobil-chevron-outlook-idAFL1N36V2OL

Hi Nomad
The apparent inevitability that 'gaps get filled' (specifically shares, not rare minerals which may rise sharply in price never to return) seems to be accepted within the markets and there are numerous on-line articles about them and the different types.
I have come to accept that sp gap fills are very likely. However, I have found no mathematical explanation other than it seems to depend on the fact that no trades were conducted during a rapid price move, so there is little resistance or support present within that price band to prevent a reverse move. My view is that they only get filled if the price naturally returns sufficiently close to expose the weakness (lack of support/resistance) in that price range. I have seen fills that take years to occur (OCADO is a recent one that comes to mind).
Regarding timing: by 'after results' I meant 'after the current upward pressure has abated', which could well be after ex-div, always remembering that quarterly dividends don't have the same impact as annual ones.

Yes Littleaston - I agree. I'd drafted this before reading your post:

Shel ultimately ended the week within a penny of its closing price last Friday:
https://invst.ly/-wdxd
OP had dropped about $1.5 in the meantime, so Shel has effectively strengthened against Brent which, despite the week’s volatility, does show some signs of reaching a bottom, time will tell:
https://invst.ly/-we0f
I don’t ordinarily ‘day trade’ Shel but, having re-acquired a recent trading tranche near today’s low, the sudden rise during the afternoon presented a quick profit opportunity that I decided to take, bearing in mind that I’m convinced that the gap to 2331 will get filled sometime - possibly after the Q1 results.

And the first of Shel's gaps filled this morning...just the lower one to 2331.5 to go.
https://invst.ly/-wa6g

Ha! OP stumbled as the LSE opened, which put paid to that idea.
Nevertheless, whilst OP may not have broken out exactly, it may have done enough to level out. Will it continue much below $78? https://invst.ly/-w7pz
I'm still keeping an eye on those Shel sp gaps that need to be filled.

OP is up since yesterday's close, so Shel might see an end of week rally:
https://invst.ly/-w5y7

Oops - did that $2 fall just happen to OP after the market close?
https://invst.ly/-ve5w
I was not expecting today’s fall below $80
https://invst.ly/-ve6w
There’s two gaps to fill in Shel’s sp- down to 2330 ish - that are now on the radar:
https://invst.ly/-ve8p

Shel’s sp is currently unmoved by OP rising above $82, with an apparent ceiling around 2460 (2470 being the most recent top). But the sp soon drops when OP ducks lower: https://invst.ly/-uwc9
OP, meanwhile, remains stuck near the bottom of the apparently 'OPEC controlled' trading range of $80-$86.
https://invst.ly/-uwng

I agree with your points Getafgrip and am convinced that QE and Government cash payouts during covid etc have contributed to the inflation we have experienced. I'm equally sure that the lack of targeting of financial aid and sloppy tax rules makes the situation worse: the very rich (not the likes of us here) are well insulated from inflation whereas the ordinary tax and bill payer gets hammered.

So OP recovered during the day and OP finally ended the day roughly back in the 30:1 relationship with Shell that they had through February and Early March:
https://invst.ly/-ui14

And OP continued to climb since the close:
https://invst.ly/-ui43
But will Shel climb with it tomorrow if it keeps going? Shel has been reluctant to go up to 2470 since mid March.

Well at 8am we got the answer: it wast he first proportional drop in sp relative to OP that we've seen in over a week: https://invst.ly/-ubhc

OP is down another $1 since 4.30pm Friday, so the downward pressure on the sp continues. If Shel resists and holds onto the 2450 level then it will indicate a return to the strongest performance against OP that we saw in February through to March 13th: https://invst.ly/-ua-t
Will OP cycle back up to $87 from this level? And, if so, will it carry the sp back up to £26 as it did in early March?

Shel stuck to quite a tight price range near 2450 this week despite a $4.5 drop in OP since last Friday’s close, pushing the sp:OP ratio back up to exactly 30x (it has been below 28x earlier this month). BP was similar, if a bit more volatile over the week:
https://invst.ly/-t-2p
Oil rallied a little today but is down at the lower end of the range that OPEC seems to be aiming to maintain: https://invst.ly/-tzyp
Because Shel’s sp has absorbed the drop in OP it seems likely that it will not be pushed much above 2470 if OP regains the $86 level in the next couple of weeks.
As others have pointed out - Q1 results day just under a fortnight off.

Fair points Char and Fusion, although ex-div is relatively small beer in comparison to a $5 drop in OP, which is potentially worth around £1.50.
With OP down $5 from $86 last Friday, https://invst.ly/-tpr8 it’s nearly back to its level prior to OPEC’s announcement of production cuts at the end of March, when the sp was at 2308. However, Shel is holding firm - only down about 11p. The result is very similar to their relative positions on 22nd of Feb : https://invst.ly/-tpvk prior to the March banking madness.
So either Shel has fully recovered from the March setback or it is running about 140p above par. BP is performing similarly but showing slightly more signs of stress this week: https://invst.ly/-tpyg .Interesting times indeed.

Make that $4 down for OP since last Friday's LSE close...https://invst.ly/-tgwi .
Will the sp absorb that?