Member Info for Boyobach

Interesting that you guys are adding.... Shel is certainly disappointing at the moment as far as I'm concerned which could mean that it is 'good value' - not that I'm trying to ramp it . It's had a poor week against OP and my usual benchmarks (CVX, XOM and BP): https://invst.ly/10t2-r

For me, it's neither high enough to top-slice or low enough to add. And the trend doesn't currently look attractive:

https://invst.ly/10t3aa . In other words, I hope you are right!

Chilting at lunchtime: 'I think we may have to continue to wait until the shorts reduce ....'

Well we didn't have long to wait, Chilting.

I nearly used the term déjà vu in reference to today but of course that refers to an illusion of a repeated experience whereas the sp has been here before…. Last November to be precise. Let’s hope the next chapter in this story turns out better this time around. Some pull-back is almost inevitable unless news keeps up the pressure but hopefully it won’t be too deep if/when it happens. Time for a stop-loss possibly - but where to place it?

https://invst.ly/10t0fd

Capturing the 800 - 950 trading range is the next, and rather critical, step if the sp is to progress rather than turn back: https://invst.ly/10sp8k

It's a flip of the coin IMO, given that any further gain is increasingly speculative and largely depends on the potential for a takeover - which has undoubtedly improved following the Autostore settlement.

The 15' trading chart looks rather more optimistic than the long term daily chart given above: https://invst.ly/10spgt

Recent gaps remain a concern - I believe OCDO's, like most, have always filled eventually.

Good news today - but mind the gap: https://invst.ly/10rllk

The week that was -

Oil basically flat near $80 with minor dips below $79

Shel and BP up 4% , US big oil not quite so much:

https://invst.ly/10r114

Chilting's advice is, as usual, prudent and sensible.

I doubt that it will be a replay of 2020's meteoric rise and these things very rarely go up in a straight line. There may be some good trading opportunities - they're always easier/less risky on the way up than on the way down.

500 is a likely challenge so we may see a replay of February's battle to secure it - hopefully more successful next time around. https://invst.ly/10r0th

*U.S. onshore oil production set to decline in August, signaling first monthly drop in 2023.

*Companies opt to delay operations despite abundant shale wells, waiting for better market conditions.

*Decline in drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) poses challenges for future production growth.

according to:

https://uk.investing.com/analysis/5-key-takeaways-from-latest-drilling-productivity-report-oil-traders-should-note-200584728

Shel moved up to a max of 2407 today (BP similarly up).

So Oil down over 1% and Shel up about 3.5% since last Friday: https://invst.ly/10qj8x , leaving Shel just 20p down on the 30 day moving average of sp:OP ratio.

....you realise they are quoting the sp in euros but using a £ sign!

Proactive Investors - Shell PLC (LON:SHEL) has the strongest balance sheet of all the European integrated oil majors and warrants a ‘buy’ recommendation, that’s according to analysts at Berenberg, with a price target of £28.50 which sees 100p of upside from the current market price of around £27.50.

So euros or pounds?? £28.50 would be approaching £5 up on today's closing price! I wish!!

“Shell released its second quarter update note on 4 July, pointing to a weaker quarter (as expected), which might be partially offset by working capital inflows,” Berenberg analyst Henry Tarr said in a note.

Full piece here:

https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/shell-offers-better-shareholder-returns-than-oil-major-peers--broker-3088333

Brent is levelling out around $80, easing any support the recent rise has been providing to keep Shel near 2300 this month:

https://invst.ly/10pvkn

Yep - and that's just the current level isn't it? The total over all time would be a good bit more.

Stop the Babies! would be one way to help save the planet.

Shel dropped in proportion with this afternoon’s sharp fall in Brent. However, as it hadn’t tracked Brent upwards at all yesterday https://invst.ly/10ocg2 , it has continued to weaken against OP, losing more than 7% in comparison to Brent recently - as this wider chart from late June shows: https://invst.ly/10ocho

Other oil co's are performing similarly, with shel arguably the least volatile and XOM the worst of the usual gang of four: https://invst.ly/10ockn

July's divergence between Brent & Shel continues:

https://invst.ly/10o3i2

Like most shares, retireguy, it needs to be managed. By which i mean that some prudent trading is needed in order to avoid being left high and dry if/when there is a pull back. I don't personally take the 'all in or all out' approach but I do top slice and reacquire in order to control my exposure and to generate cash.

After dropping back last week, OCDO’s sp is continuing a five day fight to regain the 600 level it lost in February:

https://invst.ly/10nnqa

It is also battling the trend that has marked its decline from near £29 two years before that.

Is that phase genuinely about to end or can we expect a pull back to around 400 (there’s a gap to fill to 380)?

https://invst.ly/10nnry

It strikes me that it will take something more tangible than takeover rumours to drive it much higher.

Results and updates might provide the necessary stimulus but only if they meet market expectations - which seem to be pretty high currently. I recently halved my exposure and will adjust stop losses to try and lock-in any further gains that might become vulnerable. I'd want to make the most of any steep pull-back.

Jim800: I totally agree. I've been successful with Shel by simply top-slicing and topping back up in a restrained and prudent trading pattern. I think the notion that you can buy and hold a blue chip without managing it is wrong. Shel's sp and divi tanked in 2020 - those who didn't take action lost out heavily. The hardest bit with any share is knowing when to sell as the sp starts to collapse. Many of us PIs delude ourselves in the mistaken belief that things will recover to previous levels: GENL repeated that lesson time and again didn't it?

Since my first post in this thread a few days ago, Brent has continued its break-out and has hit $80. https://invst.ly/10nlgs

It remains to be seen if it is genuinely stepping up into the next trading range of $80-$86. If it does then I’d expect to see Shel adjust accordingly.

Here’s a reminder of how Brent’s price bands have related to Shel’s since last September:

https://invst.ly/10nlt7

Back in late Feb - early March, the Brent $80-$86 range supported an sp of 2440 to 2600.

OCDO had been in a rising trend (green) since early June - boosted by takeover speculation from the 22nd - but is that now over and is the red trend here now dominating?

https://invst.ly/10mk78

It’s interesting that over the last ten days (only six being trading days), Shel has dropped 1% whilst OP has increased by around 3%:

https://invst.ly/10mjss

Indeed, by my reckoning using the 30 day moving average, Shel is currently about £1 below par in relation to OP. Other ‘big oil’ co’s seem to be similarly weak.

Zac0' s mistake - which I've also made in the past - is to fail to realise that shares must be managed, ie traded. Relying on capital gain and dividends ( the 'hands off' approach) almost never works . Investors in shares must be proactive.

I've made more per year on Shel by trading an average 25% of my holding than by dividends on the remainder - and that's what successful funds do, of course.

SavvyI: 'Agree a premium normally 30%, but often 30% of the average over 6 months .....IF it happened there would be more than one party bidding and it would go for £15....'

Isn't 600 above the average for the last six months anyway (range being 350-750, mostly below 600) ?

Would bidders really push it on to £15 ?

Still, I won't grumble if you are right. Let's just see it establish and build upon 615 before setting expectations at 2.5 times that level..