Member Info for Boyobach

The continued rise in OP since the end of August is significant because it marks a distinct raising of price following the levelling out that occurred after prices hit a peak last year in reaction to the war in Ukraine, with today’s price matching levels not seen for ten months: https://invst.ly/11cplr

This is in the context of continuing high global demand for oil which, even as investors in Shel, we must acknowledge is not a good thing. It would be better for us and for the planet, if oil was proportionately more expensive with controlled supply forcing lower consumption whilst maintaining Shel’s profitability. The supply, demand and price balance is currently controlled by OPEC, who are frankly making a better job of it than the US, with its ‘pump and bust’ shale producers of the last decade. In the past, oIl was never really black gold as it's been much more useful than the precious metal and relatively plentiful up until now. The 2020’s are the decade generally associated with Peak Oil which refers to viable global supply rather than demand. We won’t really know if that’s true in our lifetime, of course, but after just 200 years, half the total global resource, which took around 250,000 years to develop and discover, has quite possibly been used up. It's time to price it accordingly.

The sp continues to test the converging trends - this time green - but which of them will be broken by next Monday's close?https://invst.ly/11cj28

It's a fairly common indecisive pattern and recent share movements aren't giving too may clues . Arguments can be made for either , so the likelihood for each is 50/50 - never forgetting that that also allows for both to get broken by a flat trajectory from here towards the trading statement.

OCDO slipped back yesterday but buyers seemed to come out in force, pushing the volume up and steadying the ship. So it’s weaving its way ever tighter towards 850 and a coin flip regarding which of the red and green trends survives, unless, of course, both get smashed and we see OCDO level out virtually flat. When did it last do that?

https://invst.ly/11bp8y

...another couple of dollars for Brent.

Not a bad week for Shel, primarily due to broader market issues, notably OP, as also reflected by the other oil co’s in my Friday list, with BP coming out 1% ahead of the bunch:

https://invst.ly/11bp2a

If you are contemplating trading it then I suggest keeping an eye on Brent prior to Monday's open.

GFG has eloquently painted the background picture: I also think Q3 could develop well but agree it's dominated by global rather than company specific issues at present. After breaking the red here a week ago, there don't seem to be too many obstacles chartwise: https://invst.ly/11bpr3

After drifting apart in July, https://invst.ly/11bhv1 , Shel has been tracking Brent much more closely since the beginning of August: https://invst.ly/11bhq6

One thing that is consistent about OCDO’s sp is its volatility, recently driven by news and speculation rather than actual results. The bounce from 23rd Aug came earlier than I anticipated and also proved stronger than I thought the market would support, although it hasn’t yet come close to July’s high, and my last sell point. This morning saw the sp testing the most recent limit indicated by the solid red here: https://invst.ly/11b2pa

That poses the immediate question of whether red or green will prevail as the price narrows between them. Whichever breaks - and red is being tested most so far - will provide a strong indication of current sentiment and the likely direction of travel until new news hits - like the trading update on the 19th, which could either support or reverse the direction of travel at that point.

I did likewise on Monday at 2486, Spikey.

I had been overweight and waiting for Shel to break the red trend here during Q3: https://invst.ly/11ayv7

OP continues to hit prices not seen since last year but I'm not convinced that Shel has much further to go.

Stargate: ‘Price projection, is the height from the lowest price in the formation to 1000. Add that difference to 1000, for future price projection…..’

Noting your correction adjusting the upper price to 976, isn’t the lowest reading for the lower price (the cup floor) at 342 - ie 634 below, which would put the upper projection at around 1610? (Not that I'm personally suggesting that as a target in this instance.)

The sp maintained its upward trajectory today, although volume dropped back below the average level after yesterday’s surge:

https://invst.ly/1190r2

For now, the signs continue to be positive - not that I’ve been tempted back in. The market is so fickle on this one.

I agree GFG.

Oil had a good week - up $4, which helped Shel’s slow recovery from this summer’s blues at the end of May:

So the usual 4 (XOM, CVX, Shel and BP) look like this against Brent since Friday 25th::

https://invst.ly/118-ok

Shel was knocking again on the 2450 door today, reaching 24.59 before being turned back by the expected resistance: https://invst.ly/119090 it has, however, broken through the red limiting trend that has dominated for four and a half months.

Onwards and upwards hopefully, provided it doesn’t slip back too far next week.

I think there’s more to this week’s rally than the Nasdaq, Chiltong.. M&S news, for example, has helped

OCDO’s rise, especially yesterday’s, has been quite disproportionate to that of the index:

https://invst.ly/118p8d

Yesterday’s was also supported by much higher volume than seen since the rebound began a couple of weeks ago: https://invst.ly/118sp8 , possibly due to shorts closing?

Stargate’s observations are reasonable given the rally and the 'cup and handle' type pattern that has developed.

Whether the business results make it sustainable is another matter. Much will depend on the market’s rising expectations being met in the next statement.

Correction (yesterday): The sp was repelled by the 2420 resistance line.....

(There's a further test of 2420 ongoing this morning...)

To be clear, the gap did not completely fill according to the prices published in Investing.com and is about 10p short of doing so.

A similar rally to the current one occurred during the same period leading up to September’s trading statement last year: https://invst.ly/117u3u

So I think much hinges on how the next statement will be received.

However, OCDO is looking stronger than it was a year ago and seems unlikely to return to the lows seen in June.

Good progress in the chart position today - not surprising given that it was a good day for the market in general.

The spl was repelled by the 1420 resistance line but it's hopefully early days in this phase if OP remains firm in the range so far more associated with Q1 than Q3

I would add that the four month downward trend (red) represents a barrier to progress until it is broken, which currently needs the sp to rise through 2430:

https://invst.ly/1178mj

Much will then depend, I think, on Brent’s price as we head into autumn: will it crack the $87 level and stimulate the sp? https://invst.ly/1178of .

Judging by Brent XOM and CVX since Friday, things should be 'cool'.

https://invst.ly/117753

Let's hope they continue to be.

Should we look out tomorrow...does a Chinese property developer affect the global markets?

As an indicator of economic activity, I accept that it's a potential marker. But is it a key one?

I personally don't see oil demand collapsing....but the markets always react to these things.

CNBC's take:

A liquidity crisis at a large Chinese property developer has shaken global markets, and strategists say it could send ripples across the global economy.

But they also say the issue will likely be contained by the Chinese government before it wreaks damage in the banking system, and it is not expected to lead to a broader global financial contagion.

The critical question for investors is how and when do leaders in Beijing handle the situation and whether they launch a restructuring of China Evergrande Group, as many market pros expect.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/20/chinas-evergrande-crisis-could-inflict-pain-on-the-world-economy.html

I agree Gioviano. It's a flip of the coin at the moment and could just be a repeat of the last drop, after levelling out for a few days, as circled here: https://invst.ly/116g9d .

No real progress again this week by any of the usual four oil co's relative to OP: https://invst.ly/116g16

And Shel is still around 60 -70p down in relation to Brent since the end of July:https://invst.ly/116f-5

An interesting day: was it a glitch, the beginnings of levelling-out or even the start of a breakout?

If the beginnings of a breakout, it was a pretty timid attempt but it did push through the month long trend on a slightly higher volume than yesterday at just over 1M. It certainly delayed the gap fill to 700 whilst simultaneously creating another gap to 741: https://invst.ly/115-qx .

A similar two day bounce happened last week (a much higher volume of 4M was involved on the first day) but it ultimately came to nothing .