Member Info for Boyobach

'that's the gamble you take when you're bottom hunting....'

It's always better to accumulate a stock that's rising than to be averaging down a stock that's falling.

OCDO may have turned a corner with today's breakout and upward gap fill: https://invst.ly/120uj3

but Chilting's cautious tone is justified: the market was generally bullish today, and OCDO benefited from that, but whether the underlying business merits the trend reversal at this level is another matter. Certainly the most positive looking day since August.

Stunning market confirmation today: https://invst.ly/120trw

Shel is easily the best of the four majors in this chart since January:

https://invst.ly/120tjz

I wonder what the upside is now? Having sold when it peaked at this level a couple of weeks ago, and not seeing a worthwhile re-entry point since, I've partially switched into BP for the moment as there's a potential gap waiting to be filled over there. So, for now I'm totally out.

ATB everyone!

An encouraging breakout this morning: https://invst.ly/120568

(mind the gap though).

The relentless 2 month old red trend, shown here in 15' detail, is now putting pressure on the 450 support level: https://invst.ly/11-7ft

Here's the wider view: https://invst.ly/11-7q1

The first ten days of October saw an increase of about 10% in Shel’s sp relative to Brent, https://invst.ly/11-611, which can largely be attributed to the Q3 Update note on the 6th and anticipation of tomorrow’s Q3 statement. If it holds tomorrow, then it will represent confirmation by the market of the valuation it reached in March at the time of the 2022 Annual results https://invst.ly/11-67q .

Depending on your viewpoint -or how you’re inclined to spin it - this comparison of Shel’s sp over the past year https://invst.ly/11xx2- either suggests that the sp is currently ‘normalised’ with respect to OP, having the same relationship as it did during Feb - March OR that it is currently overpriced.

However, articles like the first in this thread and this one (also from proactive) are currently very bullish:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1031216/shell-s-upward-march-tipped-to-continue-with-third-quarter-update-1031216.html

Down a bit but a relatively good week for Shel compared to the others - just check out CVX since last Friday - down 13% ! If Shel had followed the same path it would have dropped about 350p over the week.

https://invst.ly/11xwsu

OCDO mounted a rebellion against the trend today, let’s look at a 15’ trading view to see how effective it was:

https://invst.ly/11x1w3

‘no cigar’ but maybe tomorrow? I’m not convinced, personally.

A daily view reflects the broader picture: https://invst.ly/11x232 and the comparable volume achieved to yesterday.

£9.78 end of July points to value at these levels in any circumstance….

Believing that an sp will inevitably recover to previous highs (and that one was incredibly brief) is a common trap that PI’s often fall into.

OCDO may well recover but that will either be sustainable because fundamentals improve or more transient because there is another burst of positive news. It’s worth what it’s worth - which, at any given instant, is what the market is prepared to pay. Based on dividend yield (currently zero) and growth prospects (hotly debated by posters here) there’s no definitive answer, although analysts have recently expressed various views

This morning has seen a fight back but the trend is still keeping a lid on the sp. It’s worth keeping an eye on volumes too. It’ll be interesting to see where it closes this afternoon. https://invst.ly/11wqvo

As we pass midweek, Shel is top of the usual four since Friday- the others being, in order of their places: BP, XOM, CVX shown here from Friday’s FTSE close against Brent: https://invst.ly/11w6ka

Although it opened below it today and yesterday, it has found support near 2700, which seems to be preventing any meaningful pullback for the moment, despite the drop back in OP: https://invst.ly/11w6wm

Who said it's down because of Google ?

After a bit of a struggle, it eventually lost its grip on the 500 support level: https://invst.ly/11w397

It was a distinct possibility.

Newdealz: If by saying 'the market does as it pleases' you mean it acts instinctively as a herd, then I'd agree.

The last few months of OCDO are a great demonstration of that.

Charts provide me with useful indicators when the herd changes direction but, ultimately, the sp must converge towards a value based on reality. I find it handy to have some thoughts about where that might currently be

I think OCDO's sp has recently been pulled back down towards that reality

For some, OCDO is full of tech promise - another ARM - for others it is a struggling tech company attached to a retail outfit facing an entirely different set of headwinds. OCDO's true value has yet to be established. Maybe it has already missed its high-tech chance and is destined to become the 'Blackberry' of robot warehousing. Who knows? The market is currently undecided on whether it's worth a fiver per share and it's under downward pressure: https://invst.ly/11uwfb

Having stepped away from them, I'm now just watching to see what the herd does next ..... and avoiding any 'oops'.

You and I might get caught Newdealz but I doubt that Valueplay would. I welcome VP's commentary, which I find enlightening .

It has always struck me that the OCDO 'split' business model - a retailer in their own right, a tech company and a warehouse/CFC operator creates conflicting priorities and objectives which result in a business that seems hamstrung. Not least because it needs to sell services and tech to companies that might view them as a competitor. I recall much the same issues when BT, a major provider of broadcast networks and services, became a broadcaster: effectively in competition with some key clients that it might also have had TO intentions towards. It's not a healthy set-up in my view.

Even if this does get to my target level, I can't honestly say that I'll automatically leap in.

Ha! Amazing indeed! I said it was ‘on the cards’, GFG, I didn’t go as far as to say we are heading directly for £30+, although the prevailing trends do suggest that Shel is on course to get there eventually. In the volatile global world of Oil, Gas and Energy, there’s a lot that can happen to either accelerate or reverse Shel’s positive run.

Anyway, this is how the usual four riders progressed with Brent this week:

https://invst.ly/11ts45

Although CVX and XOM are ‘up’ on the UK pair this week, I’ve explained in the 'underperforming' thread that, actually, the UK companies have been doing rather better than the other two over recent months and are closing the gap that formed in 2020 when Shel and BP cut dividends. This is a comparison over the last few months: https://invst.ly/11tsf6

Current and potential trends (dashed lines for the latter) tend to support Barclays target of 430:

https://invst.ly/11tllk

But although their target takes the gap at 430 into account, it ignores the one at 386 (circled) - which Exane’s recent target of 390 effectively included.

OCDO really needs to break through the solid red trends which are currently pushing it downwards, but that appears to require a tangible improvement in cash flows. Fading expectations following the TO hype aren’t proving to be enough.

Whilst I do mention from time to time how Shel and BP sp’s fell behind CVX and XOM in 2020 as a consequence of various factors including dividend policy, it’s worth noting that the gap has been closing during 2023 as the two UK companies’ sps have performed better than their US counterparts over more recent months:

https://invst.ly/11t6bi

The wider picture shows how CVX, in particular, has dropped back since early January whilst the UK companies have risen:

https://invst.ly/11t6lu

Comparisons are always subject to context - especially the period over which they are made.

That's an odd question from NeilH

(How can anyone believe a word you write valueplay?)

given that it was a factual statement and easily checked.

Anyway -

OCDO was driven down last Friday and remains under the month long red trend here: https://invst.ly/11syt1

Will we see some fight back before the weekend or will it continue towards Barclays target?

£30+ is undoubtedly on the cards. What is less clear is the path that the sp might follow to get there. It probably won’t be a straight line.

https://invst.ly/11swmw

There’ll be long term holders who are content to ‘buy and forget’ whilst others will want to supplement the relatively weak dividend yield by trading the cyclic nature of sp movements within the prevailing price channels. Reaction to the upcoming Q3 results of Shel and other oil majors should provide a useful indication of market sentiment and either support continuation of the recent rally or trigger a pull-back.

A good point from LTI regarding the relevance of Market Cap, which apparently peaked at $285.69B on Mar 18th 2020 prior to Covid and the simultaneous oversupply of oil by OPEC+ that eventually dragged OP and all the majors to a low, with Shel’s mark cap eventually dropping to $86.95B

(source https://ycharts.com/companies/RYDAF/market_cap )

I think it’s currently around $218B (please DYOR to verify),

An excellent week sp-wise: https://invst.ly/11qj7t taking Shel to the limit of what might be expected both trend -wise and in relation to OP. Although the latter might yet stretch further - the sp is about £2 up based on the 30 day moving average of the sp:OP ratio . Here’s the weekly snapshot of the the usual four majors and Brent:

https://invst.ly/11qjjo

Despite the real possibility that Shel has further to go, I took my profits today, selling off my remaining 50%. I’m unable to pay attention to it next week, my essential targets have been hit and I feel that a retrace is due - in which case I will buy back if/when I’ve made my target profit on the trade.