Member Info for Boyobach

It’s great to see £27+ reached today.

In terms of further upside it’s increasingly difficult to gauge.

Comparisons with Brent, XOM and CVX suggest that Shel could have been around £34 today if it had performed comparably: https://invst.ly/11q8xs .

In terms of historic resistance levels we are moving into the unknown but the longer term trends (blue) suggest a possible short term target area: https://invst.ly/11q938

I believe revenue is close to 2018 levels and the dividend is around 70% of what it was. I haven't checked the reduction in number of shares in issue over that period but it will be significant (DYOR).

Yes caipi - I also sold on Monday (it was the tranche I had rebought on the previous Thursday and the trade netted £1.40 gain per share).

So I'm now back down to 75% of my normal holding level.

Trading swings of £1 or more generate useful cash.

With a gap to fill to 25.90, I'm reasonably confident that I'll eventually top back up without diluting the profit made:

https://invst.ly/11peox , especially if brent eases a bit more.

Here's OP against the usual 4 since Friday: https://invst.ly/11peu4

...and the last half hour of trading today didn’t totally rescue it but it did make the week’s trading chart marginally less negative than it was looking earlier in the day:

https://invst.ly/11na6z

The daily chart, on the other hand, presents a rosier picture for those who are convinced that 546 is the bottom:

https://invst.ly/11nad9

Shel finished the week only 20p down on last Friday, which was spectacular given that oil had dropped by nearly $9 in the meantime. I was glad that I topped back up during the week’s dip, at a rather higher price than I’d anticipated although still making my target minimum profit. Here are the four usual suspects against Brent for the week: https://invst.ly/11n9r-

My own sp v OP moving average now puts the sp at £2 above expected because, obviously, it hasn’t tracked OP downwards as tightly as it might have done. I can’t help feeling that this might get corrected after the Q3 results if not slightly before.

...... unfilled gap to 264 was nearly six years ago, not five.

I’m not forgetting the gaps. Newdealz, including the one down to 264 from November 27th, 2017.

https://invst.ly/11n1se

In my limited experience gaps only fill when an sp gets close enough to them. They can remain for years - possibly indefinitely if they are part of a continuation rise or fall. Often they are filled by a brief spike. The main issue for investors here is to get a realistic sense of OCDO’s value. There’s plainly been a lot of over-expectation since that unfilled gap from nearly five years ago.

Regarding the volatility, the sp is currently sticking near the 565 level and has moved out (rather than broken out) of the most recent down trend (blue): https://invst.ly/11mpv2

So the sp has returned to the band (as marked) that it occupied during June and July following the initial phase of T/O rumours, a return to profitability, settlement of the Autostore dispute and the arrival of Rachel Osborne as an independent non-exec director.

On reflection, it’s never been clear to me what then pushed it further up from this level - I sold 50% as it reached £6, holding the rest until it peaked. Was it purely shorts unwinding or was much of the rise above £6 wishful thinking? At the time JPMorgan Cazenove had cut its price target on the shares to 400p from 450p and said: "We believe Ocado's online grocery activities will continue to face meaningful headwinds in the next months." and "With Ocado's UK Retail operations barely profitable in 2023, we see limited scope for Retail to act as the required showcase for the company's Solutions operation" (from Sharecast News 20th June).

Nevertheless, OCDO went on to briefly hit £10. It was supposedly Exane that eventually punctured the bubble but I don’t believe that JPMorgan and others have a much different view today, with analyst ratings seeming to generally be below £5 (dyor).

It’s rarely straightforward to compare Shel’s sp with Brent: for whilst they sometimes track each other tightly, there are other times when they do not. The relationship is not fixed and can be rather elastic as the sp absorbs some of OP’s more volatile moves. This changes the ratio between the two and it’s worth noting that my own record of this ratio’s moving average, which looks at the last thirty days, indicates that the sp is currently about 150p above what might have been expected as OP has suddenly fallen by around $12 over just six days. Whether this will ultimately become baked-in to Shel’s market valuation or will unwind has yet to be seen. The moves for the usual four Oil cos v Brent since last Friday now look like this: https://invst.ly/11mpim with Brent doing a merry dance prior to the LSE close, BP and XOM tracking each other closely and lower than Shel and CVX, which form another pairing.

I absolutely agree dananzi - stop losses are tricky and too easily triggered. I think it's best to be in control but most of us don't want to be staring at a screen every day, so sometimes stop losses have to be used as a final line of protection.

It's interesting to note the relative positions of CVX, XOM,BP & Shel against Brent since last Friday's LSE close and before the US market opens today: https://invst.ly/11mk40

The US market may well spark things.

BP has so far reacted more to the drop in OP than Shel.

Having made my target profit on one tranche, I bought back today below 2500 so am back to my normal holding level but I have another trading tranche lined up to 'buy' at a lower level, rather more ambitious than Armani's so less likely.

2450 is obviously on the green trend here: https://invst.ly/11mkb0

The sp is holding up well so far against the drop in OP: https://invst.ly/11mhox

Last time Brent was at $86, at the end of August, the sp was 80p lower.

Looking at OP tonight - I just checked in at 1am before lights out - I think Shel's in for a fair fall tomorrow, which suits me because I'm in buyback mode.

Robina: 'A difficult call but I sold this morning fearing it will drop back further.' ....you should do well given the falling OP but did you sell all in one hit ? 20 or 25% near the top as it's going up is usually my plan and then doubling up if it goes higher than expected.

Nomad: stop losses get used in different ways: traders use them to stop a loss on a buy that they do not expect to fall back - - it's effectively an insurance policy - so it's set very tight. LTH's use them to protect a specific capital level and it's set more loosely to avoid a false trigger. £21.60 sounds really loose to me but perhaps it's at that level because you monitor fairly closely and take control when you see the price falling, so the stop loss is just a final safety net if all else fails? I think I'd be near 2390 if that was my aim.

Interesting point about the Nasdaq (NDX100), Chilting.

When I first checked I couldn’t really see a match but then I rebased the comparison from about a year ago:

https://invst.ly/11m1jm

And that makes today’s sp almost spot-on over that specific period.

So, yes, the macro is about right but OCDO plunged well below during May and then overshot by a huge margin in the summer as the takeover hype took hold.

Bearing in mind that the Autostore news has broken since April and arguably offsets the disappointing retail/M&S news that took the price down in May, there’s scope to argue that today’s sp might be about right. However, that’s about as optimistic as I can get.

As Valueplay says, the last trading update was not as good as some thought so, as you also point out, OCDO may well fall further. My hunch is around 400 but anything is possible in the casino. Let's see if 565 holds.

Despite some support, the green trend did not survive the pressure from blue yesterday. Will the latter continue to dominate and take the price into the 400’s or will there be some levelling out above 530?

https://invst.ly/11lcf6

There are plenty of mixed and conflicting messages about oil supply and pricing currently: recent record levels of production in Texas shale but low inventories in Cushing and cuts in the number of rigs, whilst OPEC+ (including Russia) seek to maintain highest sustainable prices. There is also the seasonal cycle of demand which tends to cause OP to weaken towards the end of a year before picking back up during Q1 of the following year.

Despite the current pull-back, https://invst.ly/11lbdk ,some in the industry have been talking about OP rising above $100. One thing looks fairly certain: OP seems very unlikely to fall below $70 and anything above that represents ‘good times’ as far as Shel is concerned, even if the sp drops back for a while.

For those of us that seek to enhance the income from our Shel holding by top slicing and buying back, the regular cycles in sp of £1 to £2 are an essential and welcome part of investing in the company, providing that the underlying trend continues upward - building steady capital growth. I hadn’t been anticipating such a buyback opportunity prior to the Q3 results but will certainly be watching out for one during this month. https://invst.ly/11lbvx

Correction: June's low was 342 not 330

https://invst.ly/11kmf9

Thanks to Friday’s turnaround, there is just one active positive trend (green) remaining on OCDO’s day chart:

https://invst.ly/11kj3a

It’s not yet established, hence the dashed line, and will need to survive for a while to be taken more seriously.

Meanwhile, the sp did not re-take the 610 support, which is now seen as a resistance level. Unless it does so swiftly, the conventional expectation would be that the price will retreat further, either quickly or by drift, to the next significant support in the region of 527.

It is hard to imagine that there are many investors at below 527 who didn’t take profits during the last two months, so sellers below here may be in increasingly short supply and price strength could depend on how eager the ones who took profits are about re-acquiring. Some may be content, having locked away a profit, to reacquire at upper levels whilst others may seek a better price this time around or quit completely. Many will have the 330 bottom, and their view on the likelihood of revisiting it, in mind. To that extent we are back in the casino - which some would say we never left.

I'm inclined to agree Littleaston.

This Week: OP peaked, so did Shel (but not as much as the others) and then oil and shel fell back to last Friday’s level, with the others 1% up.

https://invst.ly/11kapn

Oil lost its footing on its rising trend during the day but still at a healthy level:

https://invst.ly/11katg

There are no certainties in this game, Toli, just probabilities (of which the most common one is probably 50/50)

If OCDO closes over 620 on Monday I'll buy you a virtual beer.

I agree Chilting.

And I have to confess that I didn't need a chart to help me get to the same conclusion.