Member Info for Boyobach

Well, Shel's sp largely back in line with BP this morning: https://invst.ly/-px9c .

Shell continues to stumble along this week. I’ve added BP to tonight’s Brent v Shel chart just to demonstrate that not all oil cos are performing the same:
https://invst.ly/-prbw
Unlike the other two, BP’s approximate price scale isn’t shown but the percentage gain since last Friday is clear enough, demonstrating that BP (up 4.46%) has been nearly twice as strong as Shel (up 2.32%) in chasing after Brent (up 7.12%).

Today saw a fall of 46p in Shel relative to OP, which was only down on yesterday’s LSE close by a few cents:
https://invst.ly/-pgz5
Gaps invariably need to be filled and it could well be that, even though Shel’s gap up on Monday (yellow here: https://invst.ly/-pgxf ) was the direct result of the weekend gap-up in OP, Shels sp won’t move on until the fill to 2332 has occurred.
Shel is really stumbling along this week.

Yes Char,
OP has risen slightly to above $85 overnight. A month ago Shel was approaching or at £26 with Brent at this level.
It seems to me that there are two things in play here: the market isn’t convinced that OP will remain near $85 and it has also revalued Shel. I think each of those carries a potential upside of about £1 (4%) on the current sp if the market changes its mind. https://invst.ly/-p9su

Shel’s sp naturally rose following the weekend kick in Brent delivered by OPEC+.
However, the rise ran out of steam in the afternoon (shortly after the US market opened) and It failed to keep up with Brent, falling short by about 85p by the time it closed at 2405:
https://invst.ly/-p4-5
Even had it tracked Brent, it would still have been about 80p below par compared to its performance on 2nd March. https://invst.ly/-p56k when it reached 2570 at today’s OP.
So, in my estimation, Shel is running about 165p short of its recent peak performance highs in relation to Brent at $84.8 .

So Shel is up - no surprise. https://invst.ly/-ozh0
Gaps aren’t good but they’re inevitable for Oil Cos when OP rises dramatically out of hours.
The market will be cautious- Shel’s sp is usually less volatile than OP for good reason and it tends to smooth out wild swings.
That said, Shel is still about £1.50 down compared to its performance v Brent in early March: https://invst.ly/-ozf6

I’m just brewing some tea to watch the show at 8.
Will Shel’s red line catch up with Brent?
https://invst.ly/-oyv5 (15’ chart rebased to Friday’s close)

Well it seems OPEC+ had similar thoughts to me yesterday: that OP was heading for a price range from $70 rather than $80 unless the price pushed through that red limit trend. Job done, for now.
https://invst.ly/-oykd

The timing of the announcement was interesting: prior to the OPEC+ meeting and on a Sunday when markets were closed. ICE did briefly hit $86 overnight but line charts based on 15 minute closing price snapshots won’t capture the peak. Daily candle charts, like the one above, won’t capture it either until they are corrected to include Sunday’s late trading hours into Monday’s.

From BBC:
Nathan Piper, an independent oil analyst, told the BBC the move by Opec+ appeared to be an attempt to keep the oil price above $80 a barrel in the medium term, given that demand could be hit by a weakening global economy and sanctions have had a "limited impact" on restricting Russian oil supplies.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65157555

As we know, the volatile and unpredictable price of oil is a key factor that influences Shel’s sp. Over the past three years, OP has seen three distinct phases:
1) Recovery from massive oversupply followed by collapse in demand in 2020.
2) Natural levelling out as the price rose above $70 in 2021, which was interrupted by
3)The surge and high volatility of 2022 triggered by the war in Ukraine.
Each is mapped out by the trends in Brent here, with the last limited by red and green:
https://invst.ly/-os-t
OP had appeared to be levelling back to a range above $80 when the recent banking turmoil knocked it rapidly down to $70:
https://invst.ly/-ot26
Whether it will recover to the original track above $80 in the near term will probably be indicated by what happens when it next tests the red limiting trend, which it has progressively eased upwards in most encounters. The fact that it didn’t drop right down through $70 to the green was an encouraging sign.

Cheers NQM.

OK. Let’s look at Shel v OP for this week, since last Friday’s close.
One note first: due to a quirk of Investing.com, this shows the June contract for Brent not the current front month of May which doesn’t expire until tonight - so the more generally quoted Brent price has been about 50c higher than shown here, although you’ll notice that the June contract is suddenly rising to match it as the evening draws in and the switch to June approaches:
https://invst.ly/-oknt

At face value the comparison looks ok but, in reality, we should see Shel (red) punching above the (orange) Brent line in order to make up for recently lost ground. As I’ve said a few times recently, the banking fallout caused Shel to slip sharply by at least a £1 below par against Brent - and more like £1.50 based on its performance after the FY results.
https://invst.ly/-okwo

So, in theory, there’s some recovery upside already due…

It’s interesting to see that Shel has not yet recovered from the sharp divergence with OP that occurred on 22nd March:
https://invst.ly/-odxn
Although it’s generally been tracking OP over the last couple of weeks, it remains around £1 lower in relation to it than it was after the FY results.

As I mentioned last Friday, Shel slipped more heavily than Brent last week and, with further slippage this week, Shel has now dropped a total of about £1.40 more than the fall in Brent alone would justify:
https://invst.ly/-nfy5
Brent hit $79 at 5pm this afternoon (according to ICE) and Shel closed at 2263.
As the chart shows, last time Brent was at $79, before all the Bank shenanigans, Shel was above 2400.

So OP isn't holding Shel back currently.

Well the gap got filled - so we can move ahead now.
With Brent at $78 today, Shel’s average sp of around 2260 this afternoon, is about £2 below the price it was at the same OP a fortnight ago on 14th March, as marked:
https://invst.ly/-neoi

The overnight rise in OP unfortunately caused a gap up in Shel's sp this morning - we ideally need to see that gap filled before it continues upwards. https://invst.ly/-n96w

It certainly looks good Neversell: Brent has rocketed by nearly $2 since the LSE closed!
Here’s how Brent and Shel moved today but bear in mind the note below.
https://invst.ly/-n4wp
Please note: As usual, Investing.com have switched to the next Brent ‘front month’ (June rather than May) on the Sunday before the actual switch - so intra-day and ‘on the day’ price charts issued all this week give a Brent price about $0.30c too low, which equates to about 10p in terms of the expected Shel sp. The price at time of posting, given by ICE is 78.07

Just bear in mind that that article and its Credit Suisse references are a week old....

small correction, as is obvious from the chart: Shel is down by about 70p compared to Brent over the week (not 60p).
https://invst.ly/-mmxq

Once Twitter gets a grip on the flock then everything can get clucked up.
We need a new term for a web instigated run on the banks - viral crash?

So here are the Shel v Brent moves since last Friday’s LSE close to today's (24/3):
https://invst.ly/-mmxq (15’ chart for all Brent hours)

I must say that, as an LTH, I have mixed feelings about the past fortnight's volatility:
I’m obviously not happy to see Shel getting weaker against OP, as it has by about 60p this week. However the trading volatility has made me 8% net in a week without really trying. If I could regularly do that using just 20% of my holding I wouldn’t really need to worry too much about divis or capital value would I?