Member Info for Boyobach

Yes, iShare1: It may have been a disappointing fortnight but, trendwise, if blue is the new green then things could be looking up: https://invst.ly/-g1j0

I'm inclined to agree edtheeuph - but prudence is holding me back today. If it gets back to 615 I'll be happy - I'm just not about to go overweight.
Today started to look promising - I want to see what happens when (if) it hits the red: https://invst.ly/-g1g6

'Hyperbole' ? No Stupmy - that's something that isn't supposed to be taken literally. I was very reserved given that it was either deliberate or the guy didn't realise it is potential maximum capacity in the future rather than current capacity. Two entirely different things. An alternative reading would be 'wow - that's quite an expansion prospect' - however, I'm not pushing that level of optimism either.
Yes- tight stop if you are going long. It's not for me at the moment - I want to see the dust settle and allow time for the results to be properly considered by the market. That gap is just too close for me to ignore otherwise I might have added late yesterday.

Yep - nearly four years since Shel was at this sort of level - July 2019, apparently. I think the all-time high was around £27.50.
Underpinned by Brent roday?
https://invst.ly/-fs5w

There was some levelling out today following a week of post results drop , with OCDO crawling out from beneath the red trend in this 15’ chart. https://invst.ly/-fpq6
Is the fallout/disappointment from last week’s results finally over?
Bears will continue to point to the lack of profit - ‘the company that has never made a dime etc etc.’
Bulls will rely on their faith in the tech prospects …. 'Jam tomorrow' hopes based on belief in the technology etc. etc.
The thing about growth shares is that, as a minimum, they are expected to deliver sufficient reward to shareholders to compensate for the dividends they would have earned over the years had they invested elsewhere. A chart of the last six months demonstrates the erratic nature of OCDO as an investment, with the gap to 484 an unavoidable hazard that can't be ignored:
https://invst.ly/-fptu .
The sp is now about 20p below where it was five years ago:
https://invst.ly/-frlc

Pokerchips: I agree - let's move on from the misleading but unfortunately influential aspects of the Guardian article. At least what we say here doesn't matter a jot.

I think some of the negativity is justified, Pokerchips, but you are being very kind to the journalist. Yes ,OCDO have made a capital commitment based on their intention to expand and, hopefully, they've used quite conservative targets so that the 700,000 figure is an indication of the volume they could supply if demand exceeds their base expectations . That's very different to stating that their operations are already enormously overcapacity. It is just a sloppy journalistic exaggeration that quotes a potential limit as if it is current capacity and assumes that OCDO don't adjust resources to match actual demand.

Regarding Nils Pratley’s observation, quoted by Valueplay, that: "The gap between capacity and the actual level of sales at Ocado is enormous’ it seems fair to point out that it is incorrect .
The company’s statement says capacity will reach 700,000 deliveries ‘at maturity’. Bearing in mind that the Luton centre is not yet open and that maturity for any centre (like the recent one at Bicester) is not reached for some time, the actual gap between today’s capacity and sales is not as enormous as suggested because he is comparing last year’s volume with a future year’s ‘mature’ capacity. Given OCDO's expansion targets, you wouldn't expect forward looking capacity to match that of yesterday's demand. Whether they reach their target is another matter, of course - but I assume they have better intelligence on that point than Nils or contributors like me or anyone else on this board.

Just to be clear, my comment about 'caution' was in the context of my being long, Stupmy. I'd rather not have to trade OCDO but the fragile nature of the sp demands that I need to manage my investment more than I'd like.

I agree Larry, although, as posted separately, I've already taken a punt on Shel dropping by selling off a few.
https://invst.ly/-fa49
Brent is certainly testing that upper red today but let's remember that the upper red trend line has been redrawn a few times since June after being pushed progressively outwards - not exactly 'breakouts' but sufficient to move the limit. Very interesting at the moment. ATB

I agree Stupmy, the gap to 484.3 looks inevitable for a fill sooner rather than later given today's drop- it always was a threat and a reminder that the price here is too volatile to trust: https://invst.ly/-eoro
The results didn't go down too well then? Only to be expected , frankly. Best to sit back and wait till the price settles. It'll come good eventually.... maybe. Trade it with caution would be my advice.

Happy 60th Neversell !
Yep - I sold at the top in the last hour.
Still got 66% of my core holding so will see how it goes. ATB

To clarify, my last 2444p tranche = my most recently acquired 2444p tranche

I think I'm becoming a day trader here. If I'd been watching the sp today I'd have been very inclined to sell my last 2444p tranche of shares for 2550 mid morning. as I'm quite convinced the upward steam has gone today and this'll begin to drop with OP, assuming that Brent continues south tomorrow: https://invst.ly/-e7-v (Brent 15')
Still, wishes are not reality, so I must wait to see what tomorrow morning brings.... https://invst.ly/-e7yn (Shel daily tick)

After tracking closely at the end of last week, BP and Shei are leaving Brent behind in the dust this morning....
https://invst.ly/-dzo6

Following up on Larry's posts:OP Direction

This article, which talks about WTI (roughly $6 lower than Brent) spells out the conflicting factors concerning the direction of OP, which initially dropped on news of the ‘surprise’ US inventory build to the green trend in the following chart but then recovered:
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-recovers-firmly-above-7550-despite-us-eia-confirms-higher-oil-inventories-202302232311

The daily direction is a ‘flip of the coin’ for me, although the chart offers some clues:
https://invst.ly/-dtua
Those with a bearish view will expect to see OP continue to be suppressed by the red limiting trend that has dominated for months. The bulls will hope to see it remain above the green. The two lines converge around mid March, so something has to give.

My guess is that seasonal demand will support the price and both lines will ultimately get broken as OP levels out to a median around $83 with a $6 swing continuing either side of that price through the summer months. Other guesses are available.

Good points, Savvy.
Perhaps I should have made a clearer distinction between ‘day trading’, which I don’t indulge in, and management of investments - which involves purposeful selling/buying in response to market movements and likely prospects. In particular, I do not recommend ‘averaging down’ without due consideration of the risks of further decline and the upside required to break even. The fact is that once a share has been bought it never makes a profit until the price rises above that level. Many people fool themselves by looking at the average they have paid but overlook the additional volume and risk they have exposed themselves to.
The recent rise of CWR to 500 offers a good example of where enthusiasm needs to be controlled - reaching a resistance or support level is normally a ‘flip of the coin’ moment and it is often better to wait for some confirmation of the next phase. There was talk here of 500 being ‘smashed’: it patently wasn’t and assumptions by some that it would continue at pace were based on hopeful beliefs rather than reading the market.
Happy Dazes describes an ideal example of apparently keeping a core holding and trading the limiting highs and lows.
ATB

I don’t entirely agree with Savvy. For me it is a big mistake to invest and then sit on your hands: trading is an essential part of managing my investment. CWR has been a poor investment over the last two years unless you were proactive and traded it. I am underwater here, but I’ve cut my potential losses by 50% by trading. I have recovered cash whilst also increasing my holding. CWR is high risk, volatile and still in a long-term downtrend (red in the chart). If you don’t recognise and accept the risks then you need to seriously consider why you are invested, especially if you are pinning all your hopes on the Weichai deal and the hype that some heap upon it. It'll be good if it happens but consider the possibility that it won't and don't trust those who talk as if it is a certainty.
https://invst.ly/-dma1

Just to conclude the week and emphasise my previous post from this morning:
How Shel, BP and Brent moved over the last two days
https://invst.ly/-dj-2
My takeaway: Don’t dismiss market and OP influence

So Shel continued to break upwards this morning. Very interesting to see that the entire move over yesterday and this morning has been closely in sync with Brent and BP. The move has therefore been sector rather than company specific so far.
https://invst.ly/-ddwk