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That's an interesting analysis livestock.
It so happens that, after a couple of years of disappointment, I sold up my Lloy holding completely yesterday at 52+ because I decided to lock-in my profits. Lloy has a tendency to rise sharply prior to an equally swift pull-back and I’m not convinced that the latest rally has the legs to take the sp over 57 and remain there, although I accept that it’s a possibility:
https://invst.ly/-4cjs
I think the results could contain some negative vibes (like defaults) so, for me, there's a risk of a steep pull-back if the market is disappointed.
I’ll probably return when there’s some clarity but, given the typical 8p / 20% volatility, I’ve come to regard Lloy more as a trading share than a core long-term hold.

Well it’s made a start:
https://invst.ly/-4cbj
My imagined trend has been made slightly steeper to reflect the time available and this morning’s first hour of trading.

Lti: A sustainable dividend policy establishes an expected return and the market will move towards a price that balances yield against the associated risks and growth prospects, Shel is a good example of a company where the sp has fallen compared to companies that maintained established dividend levels. Buybacks have not filled the relative drop in sp there.

If Shel is going to hit 2450 by Results day, then it’ll need to get a move on now:
https://invst.ly/-43cz
The green dashed line shows a typical 'fast' rising trend (tracing the lows), as seen recently for Shel. Somehow I don't think it's going to happen.
The 4th Quarter isn’t expected to match the previous ones, of course, and there’ll be other costs/liabilities not included previously but now added to the numbers. So market expectations may not be high enough to push it to that level.
Meanwhile there was this news today:
LONDON, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Shell (SHEL.L) is considering exiting its home energy retail businesses in Britain, the Netherlands and Germany in the wake of "tough market conditions", it said on Thursday.

Interesting subject - the VIX - apparently near its mid point indicating volatility low by that measure? It seems opinions about what it might mean can diverge significantly:
https://www.investing.com/analysis/sp-500-calm-before-the-rally-200634605
I don't have a view, other than energy (even fossil based) will still be in demand. It's over-supply that can scupper the price. I don't think OPEC will allow that and the US Shale producers probably don't want to return to the boom 'n bust years.

Well, this afternoon saw the drop below 2350 I was looking for when I posted at 13.30.and I was lucky enough to catch 2309 , which met my first buy-back target. I’ll go for a second tranche if it falls to around 2250, although I’m inclined to agree with Littleaston - assuming he made a typo and is anticipating a rise to 2450 (not 2250) as we approach the results. Today’s closing price could be a good indicator of direction from here, depending on whether it is very close to the lowest price tested today or whether there’s a swift rebound to around 2350.

It’s interesting to see the support that the sp is finding around 2350. I hadn’t got it marked out as a likely one but it’s got some history - mainly as a resistance level in the two months leading to the last big push to 2550 in early November: https://invst.ly/-3kll
Since then, it’s buckled when tested as the price has fallen back but it has so far withstood five days of downward pressure, so the sp may prove to be at a decision point.

O/T Genel:
I admire your resilience and patience with G, Jim and hope their prospects finally deliver.
To be fair, I would have done ok had I stuck with them and continued trading the highs and lows but it required a lot of attention and there was always a nasty surprise waiting - a trait that was set way back in Tony Wayward's days when their off-shore drilling found only dusters , their main cash stream, TT, turned out to be more water than oil and their only customer failed to pay on time. Life has been much less stressful for me since I chucked the towel in. It's much more relaxing here - if somewhat less exciting. My best regards to you, Tartine and all over there.

I absolutely agree Jim .
My take is that the company's sp is naturally influenced by many factors that are largely global but sometimes company specific (like the dividend cut in 2020 for example). OP is but one of them and it often simply adds 'noise ' to the sp which only dominates when there isn't much else going on. I therefore become more interested when Shel doesn't track OP (and the ratio changes significantly over a given period) because it means something else is shifting the price. One other comparison I use but haven't posted recently is with Chevron (CVX). I find this useful because CVX never cut their divi and I think it gives an indication of what might have been expected from Shel had they not done so and been less intent on share buybacks . I understand that CVX have also performed buybacks but they have not prioritised them over dividend. Had Shel's sp performed as well as that of CVX from 2019 to today then the sp should now be in the region of £32 according to this: https://invst.ly/-2-oi (Monthly chart from 2014).
Needless to say, I've not been impressed by Shel's distribution policies . ATB

It's an interesting 'dynamic' this morning: Shel down whilst BP and Brent are up. As you seem to be saying, Shel is relatively weaker with respect to OP than the recent average.
For some reason there is downward pressure on Shel's sp but the continued strengthening of Brent - and the rest of the market - seems to be supporting it: https://invst.ly/-2txc

It’ll be interesting to see if - and how far - the OP bull-run continues, Larry, as it could signal the end of Brent’s six month falling trend (red): https://invst.ly/-2nra . It might also accompany a reversal of the recent pull-back in Shel: https://invst.ly/-2nyp .
Over $90 could start to be significant from a Shel sp perspective.

I'm not sure that it's 'easily manipulated', Topher. I think OPEC would love to have had more control during the three or four 'shale boom & bust' cycles. That said, OPEC are more in control currently - mainly because Russia is operating in a more restricted market and the surviving US Shale producers are more disciplined because they are less in debt than those that failed and don't have to pump (overproduce) in order to survive. In theory, supply and demand should be reasonably well controlled with a healthier average price level than seen during the pre-COVID period. A high OP also encourages the transition to green energy which, nevertheless, still seems some years away. Time will tell, as char often reminds us.

As I’ve noted before, Brent’s two year recovery trend (blue) ended in the summer with the pull back (red) taking over after June's peak : https://invst.ly/-1-r0
January often sees the bottom of the seasonal influence cycle so the question is whether downward pressure will continue to dominate and extend the red path, will the price simply level off in the $75-$90 range (something of an OPEC sweet spot,I think) or will economic recovery and demand drive it back up over $100 ? My hunch would be levelling off. Although I’m sure the US would much prefer to see a return to below $60 for WTI (Brent is usually about 4 or 5 $ higher) , I don’t see that happening as the traditional pre-summer demand increase occurs.

Nice one Topher, I was tempted - and the gap provides a nice comfort level as it'll get filled at some point.
Judging by the posts here, attention for some of us has switched to a potential buy-back price.
For trend followers, I guess there’s two camps: red or blue? https://invst.ly/-1-b-
Either way, the 2260-2300 range looks like fertile ground. Those who like solid support lines might even be waiting for a slightly greater drop to 2240.
But, in the meantime, Q4 results are just a fortnight away, with ex div two weeks later - could be a roller coaster.

I meant to attach this updated chart showing how the trend has continued and Brent's price moves over the same timeframe: https://invst.ly/-01h6

Well your decision is on course Barrie! Back in Nov it hit 2550 but that was at an OP around $98, I believe.
Because I've taken profits a little early this time, I'm not eager to sell a second tranche prematurely so may not sell at all unless I'm convinced it's reached a peak and the profit is above my raised expectations.
Good luck!

Although I was looking for nearer to 24.50, I took profits by recycling the trading tranche I last sold for around the same price and bought back the next day just a week ago: here’s a 15 min trading view against Brent: https://invst.ly/z-p01 . I do suspect that the sp will get progressively more sensitive to OP, given the gap between the two that has appeared since Jan 4. So, even though there seems to be some mileage left in the week long red trend, which remains unbroken, I dont’ think it’s ever wrong to take a profit - and quick ones are often the best. If it continues up then I’ll sell another tranche if it rises another 75-100p. https://invst.ly/z-p3w .

Is 750 about the limit or has the green trend still got some legs?
https://invst.ly/zzedx
The sp ran out of steam today, so Is it back to the 620 support (simply levelling off) or will 700 be recaptured and provide a higher base for another push upward?
The current swings offer a profitable trade, whatever the long term prospects

I wonder how the Net Book Value has changed in the same period.

Good points from Topher and Jim, Barrie, but don’t feel under pressure to trade or regret missing opportunities here. They are easy to see in hindsight. As I said, my last trade was a rare opportunity for me and I happened to be looking at the price at the right instant. Luck plays a huge part. A £2 cycle in price often only results in a £1 net trading gain (around 5%) in practice due to timing. The long term trends here seem to be flattening out: red dots may prove more accurate than the blue trends of the last two years: https://invst.ly/zz9i3 . And, whilst the sp may still be climbing trendwise, it must be remembered that the potential ‘lows’ are rising at the same rate as the ‘highs’ so the profit margin after a ‘sell’ is effectively being squeezed as time goes by. It's very hard to read right now - I'm inclined to echoJim's view regarding £24 although my own target is nearer £24.50 - but that could change in an instant depending on how it gets there.