Member Info for Boyobach

'tin hat' time indeed, Carrington, with OCDO moving into the gap created just over four years ago on 17/5/2018: https://invst.ly/yvhb2 .

Brent may be quoted at $105+ but that is the October contract, which ends tomorrow evening. The November contract is currently about $2 lower - it will become the quoted 'front month' from Thursday.

I had one 'trading tranche', separate to my long-term holding, which had been in loss since June and I decided to offload it today as it was just in profit. Shel has done well for me with other trades but this one was an irritation and the sp may be running a bit hot in my view. The counter argument to selling, of course, is where will the sp go if Shel improves the divi? I've concluded there's fat chance of that and there are better speculative/trading prospects elsewhere at the moment.

Yes - always a risk to be sure - I've done nicely with OCDO of late - when it falls well below AMZN comparatively and approaches a support level it starts to look interesting: https://invst.ly/yu6hq . I've bought a few back today, using gains from Shel, which is looking a bit 'hot' and has rather less short term upside prospects.

On the issue of 'August sp Volatility due to low trading volumes', it's interesting to look at a 15 minute line chart of Brent (green) v Shel (red) over the past ten days. Doing it this way round shows the Shel response to 'out of hours' Brent movements (the straight Shel segments are overnight periods when the sp doesn't move but Brent is being traded): https://invst.ly/ytrua
From this it can be seen that Shell has tended, as usual, to smooth out some of the the volatility of OP but otherwise tracks it fairly closely - not to forget that Shel was actually strengthening relative to OP during the early part of August. I really don't think trading volumes make a significant difference to the sp.

To be fair Jim, I should've spotted what you meant. Truth is, I've never thought it was a factor - which doesn't mean that it isn't, though.

Some understandable profit taking this morning - £3 in around a month is good going - Brent still driving the current trend: https://invst.ly/yth0f
But suppliers want to see it at a sweet spot if possible - too high and it forces demand down.

Jim - there’s no doubt that there are seasonal influences on OP which ordinarily cause a cyclic rather than a volatile variation in the underlying price. However, I don’t think those seasonal factors dominate the price as much as other, more profound and less predictable factors. It’s not possible, for example, to say with any certainty that January, or even the first quarter, always sees a low in OP. Looking back over the past few years I can see tendencies rather than any really useful repeating pattern.

Well the trend certainly didn't stall today - https://invst.ly/yta19 - firmer if anything. Worth bearing in mind that this phase, unlike the first half of August, is being driven by OP. Here's a bullish article reflecting that side of the coin and pouring cold water on my gloomier sentiments of yesterday:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Brent-Crude-Zooms-Towards-100-As-OPEC-Leans-Toward-New-Oil-Output-Cuts.html

The sp is at a tricky point - as barrie says, it is tracking OP again: https://invst.ly/yt0h4 .
What will the outcome of US and EU talks with Iran be? Are sanctions about to be removed?
A lot of uncertainties.
Shel did falter today: https://invst.ly/yt0j6 , as did BP, which is pushing at its 30 month upper limit again.
I'm just not optimistic about further advances at present and might offload a few if the recent trend stalls.

MBS is no friend of Biden's.

I should also have pointed out that it is not Shel specific - other majors are seeing a similar shift, eg BP and Chevron (CVX):
https://invst.ly/yscjh

When an oil company’s sp moves significantly in the opposite direction to OP it indicates an interesting shift in the market’s valuation:
https://invst.ly/ysc2t
The only other point I'd make Barrie is that the ratio is 'elastic' and I think if OP were to climb back over $100 I'd expect to see Shel's sp reacting cautiously.

Cheers Jim. You’ve neatly summarised all the current setbacks that I’ve discovered upon revisiting G. I’d hoped to find signs of a turnaround since I last looked in but LucyWu’s farewell post was so similar to many others I’ve seen over the years. It always was a ‘jam tomorrow’ story with successive ‘transformational’ assets ultimately failing to deliver. Bina Bawi was really G’s (and Bill’s) last big chance, prematurely carrying the sp to £3 four years ago. Your comment about ‘normal metrics’ not applying was, as Tartine said, spot on. GLA.

Are there just three or four months of Tawke override payments remaining? As far as I can see, they accounted for about 25% of G’s revenue for July. Actual oil production only accounted for 53%:

July Payments (from RNS):
Tawke 19.9
Tawke override 12.7
Taq Taq 2.3
Sarta 3.7
Receivable recovery 10.2
Total 48.8

Has Qara Dagh now been abandoned as a prospect? It never was a certainty. Is Sarta delivering to expectations?

Gas was always the key to unlock G’s remaining potential after Tac Tac failed but it never came to anything: this is from Reuters, June 2017 (when sp was around 85p):
“Genel is today really about focusing on monetizing the gas business. That will be a key milestone and catalyst going forward,” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-genel-energy-management-idUSKBN18W2VO

Yes Jim - I hadn't realised how 'disappointed' I've become with Shel until the last few days. Typing out that post was cathartic. I'm only continuing to hold in anticipation of an improved divi policy and transition strategy by FY results but I think there are probably better options out there - I just haven't settled on anything particular yet
I'm not seriously reconsidering G - I assume you are no longer 'in' there? From your comment I'm guessing the usual Baghdad v Erbil games and uncertainties continue as ever. ATB.

For those who think Shel is delivering for us investors: it’s worth comparing it with CVX over the last ten years: no divi cut there in 2020, they are also doing buybacks and the sp is 50% higher in relative terms. Shel would need to be in the region of 3300 today in order to be keeping pace with this benchmark. Shel tracked CVX closely for a decade until early 2020, when the wheels fell off and we’re still waiting for them to be refitted two years later:
https://invst.ly/yrc-q

….and Mr Van B supposedly can’t figure out why Shel is undervalued by the market???

Jim, regarding Starmer : or might there be some unintended consequences??
Unintended consequence like helping the rich just as much as the poor and needy? WTF is Starmer proposing? from the reports I've seen he will help rich and poor alike - a universal policy - with no targeting of the people who really need help.
And for us assumed 'toffs' (we are not really), I have yet to see any shareholder benefit from share buybacks so, yes, screw Shel and, if they haven't got a better clue what to do with our cash and also don't do the honourable thing and return it directly to us then let it go to people who need it. The sooner they break up this sht show the better. Do I sound bitter? F'ing right I do. We all deserve better. Like I said in a previous post: after ten years, full recovery of O&G prices, reduction of debt and a return to healthy profit the patient and loyal shareholder reward has been a 50% cut in dividends - is that a record of achievement and good performance? (Rant edited)

Yes Jim, he usually is. But even Char has a chance of being right.
Mixed messages on the sp today - tested down but ultimately stayed in the trend:
https://invst.ly/yr8pb
More shares bought back today - so we're all feeling the benefit of that, right?
Of course we are - I just wish i could measure it and be convinced. Who needs restoration of divi and parity with shareholders in other oil companies?
I'm on the edge of my seat and starting to look at Genel again (laughing with tears emoji).

Looking at Shel’s sp ratio to OP over the last 12 years, it has to be said that, when Brent is near $100, this is about as good as it gets (just under 23x):
https://invst.ly/yr2pj
Much higher ratios have been seen but these have only been achieved at lower OP.
The only other difference to note is that 10 years ago the divi was 80% higher than today. So not much to show for investors really - I wonder how exec pay has done over the period?