Member Info for Boyobach

Good luck Pernix.
Having taken a profit yesterday, I doubt that I'd have leapt back in. I think it's very much down to Brent and the wider market at the moment. Keep a close eye on OP - but on ICE rather than on investing.com: https://www.theice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures/data?marketId=5166938

The sp seems very sensitive to Brent currently.
Here's a chart of Shel v Brent for last four months (today's Brent price, which is over 118 as I post, removed as incorrect on investing.com):
https://invst.ly/yfhdg

A significant breakout this week. Consolidating above 22p will indeed be the next step.
https://invst.ly/yfgeb

Just to illustrate my point about Investing.com ‘live price’ for Brent being wrong this week, here is today’s daily chart for Brent: https://invst.ly/yffk1 as opposed to the ‘live’ chart in progress yesterday: https://invst.ly/yfago . Note the completely different price for yesterday’s marked candle. By the same token, the last candle in today’s chart is now wrong.

This problem occurs nearly every month during the last week because investing.com change to the next contract month on the Sunday prior to contract expiry therefore showing the wrong live price for up to five days. Brent today is about $117 according to ICE.

Yes - the last fortnight certainly wrong footed many people.
OP is cooling a bit since this morning - so that may take the steam out of this rally. GL!

Pernix: Since the value rose above 2000 back in March I don’t trade Shel much because the potential gain is not good relative to the risk (I’m a LTH): better for me to trade an £8 share looking for a quid rather than a £20 share with the same target gain. But I will top-slice if the signs are strong - like I did at 2450. Right now I’m not in buying or selling mode. Given my past comments, I obviously feel this has the potential to go a lot further than the present price but 2240 was a resistance point back in April and may prove to be again: https://invst.ly/yf82k So if I had a tranche I was looking to sell I might have been tempted at that level.

To be fair, the last fortnight has seen massive volatility which has caught most of us out. I thought I'd made a smart move buying back at around 2300. Yes, I made a profit but look where it went after that.

I'd hope Biden would already know that!
But with China (and India?) taking more Russian oil, that should free up some OPEC supply.

OP is at $117 this morning. Just a note for anyone following OP on Investing.com: the live price there for Brent is currently about $4 low compared to the correct ‘front month’ contract of August because, on Sunday, they switched to showing the next (September) contract. Their historic end of day prices are correct. For an accurate price go direct to ICE: https://www.theice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures/data?marketId=222475
The problem will resolve itself on Friday, after the August contract expires.

Won't high oil prices stimulate renewables in the long run? I've always thought that transition to renewables is best served by high fossil fuel prices. OP has been rising (or recovering, depending on you views and timeframe) for the last two years. The Ukraine conflict has just added a froth of volatility onto the top:https://invst.ly/ye-p8 .

960 seems realistic - obvious even - looking at the chart .
OCDO started the week unspectacularly but I regard that as good: No nasty shocks, staying above the red and keeping in step with ‘on-line retail’ benchmark AMZN:
https://invst.ly/ye-h1
They are both potentially levelling out, in which case 830-960 would be a nice OCDO trading range for a while but, obviously, following the green trend towards 1060 would be preferable.

I agree Barrie - the cut in dividend obviously hit the yield and, for many institutions and PI's, reliable and good yield was the attraction of Shel for decades. Now the sp is nearly back to 2019 levels (it got there for a few weeks) but the yield is roughly half what it was. Undoubtedly I think dividend (and therefore yield) is a factor in the disconnect between Shel (also BP) and their US cousins. Buybacks simply haven't filled the gap (nor will they in my view).

Phoey: I offer up observations rather than insights - highly subjective and very much open to debate. Regarding gas, I’d make the observation that LNG is way more volatile than Brent and, consequently, its short term impact on Shel’s sp is much, much less evident. To demonstrate, here is a 6 year chart of Brent in comparison to Platts JKMC1, with March 3rd marked (the day O&G spiked as a result of Ukraine invasion).
https://invst.ly/yeyuw

It’s also harder to pin down a benchmark (like Brent is for oil) that somehow embraces all global LNG markets and how that translates to Shel - which is much bigger in Asia and Oceania than in Europe - where there is obvious current pressure on price: https://www.statista.com/statistics/260326/natural-gas-production-of-shell/

The following link to ICE gives a good summary of the respective benchmarks and, from it, I assume that JKM futures would be a good general benchmark for gas futures affecting Shell: https://www.theice.com/global-natural-gas-futures . We should all get a better idea of the current situation regarding LNG & Shel when the Q2 results come out at the end of July.

Oil may be in a bear market relative to its volatile gains following the invasion of Ukraine (see chart from 1st March onwards) but, in reality it has returned to the trend it has been following for the last two years:
https://invst.ly/yeq9-
Russian oil has been switched to China and elsewhere causing supplies from OPEC to become available to cover demand from Europe. The overall supply/demand dynamic has probably not changed for oil as much as many might suppose. Gas is a different matter.
For Shel there will be a ‘Goldilocks’ price for oil which is healthy for the business without being damaging for global economies. If OP is too high then it stifles demand whilst simultaneously stimulating overproduction leading to a boom/bust cycle.

Shel’s recent fall in sp below 2019 levels highlights the disconnect that has arisen between the sp and that of other oil companies - like CVX - as well as with its relationship to OP. Whilst Brent is currently about 77% up and Chevron is plus 23%, Shel is down around 8% compared to their respective prices at the end of November 2019:
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_abbf5e2035b787e01b9ebf83efa4aeca.png

By this comparison, Shel would need to be nearly 2800 to match Chevron’s sp today. The difference with CVX is, on the face of it, largely due to the cut in dividend. Rather than fully reinstate dividends whilst revenue has recovered, Shel has opted to reduce debt and to buy back shares. There has also been the sale of Permian assets and, more recently, losses incurred as a consequence of the exit from Russian business. In theory, Shel should be a stronger company as a result of the debt reduction but shareholders do not seem to have experienced much direct capital benefit from the buybacks, which is possibly because, rather than being a ‘distribution’, they have simply offset shrinkage of the business. If the market is currently undervaluing Shel then the Q2 results on July 28th will hopefully shed some light on the subject.

Well OCDO finished the week with both the open and close clear of the red trend, which is much better than I was expecting after yesterday’s closing auction. As I explained earlier, it has also maintained performance relative to AMZN for over four months now, basically since the drop on 8th Feb, with no nasty surprises this week as a result of the cash raise. Hopefully there’ll be no dramas from here and steady progress in step with the wider market:
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_17da8b2e91f9cda39c498520c0541407.png

OCDO is at least making some progress this morning:
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_121e3824e4ba5051b3f15e158a21a26a.png .
It’s apparent that, with the exceptions of its peaks of September 2020 and February 2021 and two drops - in May 2021 and in February of this year, OCDO’s sp has generally tracked AMZN quite closely, particularly since mid March. This chart, from AMZN’s last peak on 28th March, shows that it has dropped 33% whilst OCDO, having seen something of a rally in April, has only dropped 22% in the same period:
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_176b1efb470e33e5ee363fdb40105c2f.png
So some grounds for optimism.

I have to disagree, Valueplay. Oil is an essential that has a knock-on effect to all items in the household shopping basket. Higher OP already seemed inevitable prior to Ukraine, so I'm not speaking with the benefit of hindsight. There was a foreseeable squeeze on supply as economies emerged from covid following the collapse of supply from US Shale and a reduction in inventories, which had peaked prior to covid, crushing the price of WTI to -$37.63 per barrel at one point (yes: minus $37.63) . The Russia-Ukraine war simply added a further 'shock' regarding oil that is being resolved by a switch in supplier relationships, with Russia finding alternative buyers by offering discounts against the naturally inflated OP. Russia is still selling its oil and earning the cash but supply remains tight for the moment. Gas is another matter - winter could be interesting.

duff second link (due to LSE input system) reposted:
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_b5aac4ab073fd910c8436188b539003f.png

It's not happening is it?
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_fea5e978651709b091560f454bbdabae.png
Today it came close but it failed in the auction. Seven months of decline within this trend -
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_b5aac4ab073fd910c8436188b539003f.pngGLA
rather more months of decline for some share holders, of course.
Was the cash-raise well timed ? And for whom?