Member Info for Boyobach

I meant to add that I reckon it will go sideways.

Everyone has their favourite chart views and tools, Newdealz - I've only recently started watching the 9,26 EMA which is the default setting at Investing.com. It looks good but, like all tools, has its weaknesses and can be a bit late compared to a trend . I don't use Fib lines - I don't think they've ever been proven and are basically something of a myth that can sometimes be self-fulfilling because many obviously do use them. 50%, for example, is not a true Fib number but has to be added to give the tool an essential frequent ratio. To quote Investopedia: 'Fibonacci numbers are found throughout nature. Therefore, many traders believe that these numbers also have relevance in financial markets.' Total tosh IMV. Other ratios, like 33% 25% 10% etc also occur just as often as far as I can see. Each to his own though. If there was a foolproof method we wouldn't be chatting here would we?

That’s a 2 hour chart rather than daily isn’t it, Newdealz?
Leads to a different analysis for me, especially as the candles don’t give the all-important open and close prices based on the auctions. So, unless I’m contemplating an imminent trade, I’d be looking at this ‘daily’, which includes a 9,26 EMA:
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_d58c0a8283b65302c01c48750320b9ea.png

My own view regarding OCDO is that it could easily go lower, especially as it has yet to break the red trend I keep going on about. If it opens and then closes above 860 this week then maybe we’ll be seeing a turn for the better.

I thought it might visit 765 today. Regarding the wider market - who knows? OCDO is not too far out of kilter with AMZN of late (bearing in mind different market timings and that US markets were shut on Monday):
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_fb6dc828d8defcc1a148102f47050496.png

@Valueplay: ‘there were some who thought oil prices would go far higher and that inflation would soar’...
Regarding OP and inflation: Brent was already heading for $100 prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine: https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_410cdcf00080db4a4f93d88b7ed106d8.png
In a global context, China and others are now taking more supply from Russia which frees oil from OPEC etc. to fill the gap in supplies. So the total global supply/demand situation has probably not changed due to the war as much as many suppose. In fact, Russia is supplying seaborne oil at record levels: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/061522-russia-seaborne-oil-exports-at-3-year-highs-despite-sanctions-shake-up
Meanwhile suppliers, such as the Shale producers in the US, are ramping up production but this is a lengthy process and, in the past, this has resulted in overproduction and excess supply which has caused OP to collapse.

I don't think Darien does insight, Chilting.
A good outcome market-wise today though:
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_65d6fa8e0abb14f40d64b5938e9420e9.png

Yes, I agree Valueplay -
The market picture so far this morning is typical 'undecided' regarding direction:
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_9b52a3f64b43ad8f4841aad494157c0a.png
Bulls and Bears here will interpret that according to their established viewpoint.
I'm neutral - invested but not especially convinced either way at present, I watch the indications. The best I expect currently is a sideways move maintaining 800. If it breaks the red trend then at least it will be stabilising rather than continuing to fall.

@Valueplay: 'Some of the biggest Ocado investors have just sold £220m worth of shares. '
That's understandable - logical part of the process of spreading the cost and selling before the lock-in. It's the price at which they sold and their resulting net position that's of interest to me.
The discount of near 10%, resulting in the 795 price, was higher than I expected but I guess reasonable given the price over the last week.

Nice try skier. I guess the discount may be in the region of 4 to 5%? - so maybe around 838p based on today's close? A wee bit above your target this time probably? In theory, the placing should be neutral as far as sp is concerned - it obviously benefits those who participate at a 'bargain price' so I guess the timing has been influenced by an assessment to that effect. From a chart perspective, I don't think it's going to assist OCDO break the red this week - but who knows?
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_fe7ff95110f27854e01bebf637cc8618.png

Yes Barrie, I make it 18.6x OP, with a 30 day MA of 20.2x, so it's about 193p below par according to me.
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_91b49e2ce186540bac1b5a6fb379d777.png
Plenty of scope for recovery. It was Juneteenth day in the US today - so markets there closed. It'll be interesting to see what tomorrow brings.

.....I made that last post before becoming aware of the placing.

Well it still looks possible to me SFH, with 'next week' now being 'this week', of course:
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_f4ba39c2f029cb4618f74810df389bd5.png
It's all eyes on the 'red' again. I think it'll be a big deal for OCDO if it can get out from under it.

Once I realise that a fairly routine pull back has turned into more of a knife drop I prefer to stand back until the blade has stopped quivering after hitting the floor. It’s fun trying to figure out which trend or support (if any) it might land upon and which track it might take from there but it’s never worth piling in too rashly in my experience. https://invst.ly/ycxt4 .
The decision to sell is difficult once the fall passes a certain threshold. Shel will recover - energy is essential and supplies will remain relatively tight.

Given the background of market mayhem this week, CWR did well today. Nevertheless. It’s been a bad week in comparison to the CELS index:
https://invst.ly/ycxk9

Here’s a ‘15 minute’ week’s comparison of Shel, BP, CVX and XOM since the London SE close last Friday: https://invst.ly/ycxcc , which includes out of hours Brent and US moves.
Main takeaways seem to be that the majors are currently down by similar percentages in the region of 15%, about double that of Brent which, itself, suffered half of the week’s fall during this afternoon from 1.30 pm BST onwards.

It is worth noting that OCDO’s recent sp moves are not entirely company-specific, as a comparison with AMZN over nearly three months convincingly demonstrates:
https://invst.ly/ycvbl
Clearly there are a couple of key trends to be watched - particularly for any hint of a change in longer term direction.
Being fully above 860 at the end of next week, for example, would be a positive sign.

Given the performance of the wider market, CWR does not seem far out of kilter after today's lift. This is a 15 minute comparison with the fossil energy co Shel over the last few days: https://invst.ly/ycuc4

There's certainly a change in reality, Getagrip. I’m not sure that governments can (or want) to reduce demand for oil because they want the post-covid recovery to continue. I think they want to see more non-Russian supply, irrespective of their green policies. So far, OP has not been influenced directly by the FED’s actions or indirectly by the market reaction. Ultimately, as you suggest, supply and demand will determine OP. Shel will benefit as demand increases, even if OP falls back - provided there is not excessive supply and a return to the boom-bust periods of recent history. IMO, Shel should resume steady progress after this re-set and I’ve used this unexpected drop to re-acquire some shares I managed to trade during the recent peak: I’d rather get near 4% divi than hold cash right now. The question for me is whether the market has now completed its ‘adjustment’ or whether it will continue to react sharply to further rate increases.

As a matter of interest, an estimate of today’s sp based on the 30 day moving average of the sp ratio to OP puts Shel on an expected sp of 2410! Either the maths or the market seem a bit adrift from reality!

I hope that buy works out for you Barrie - smart move keeping some powder dry to add later if the fall continues.
The problem when the market goes off the rails is that the bottom is very hard to guess. This chart shows Brent dropping back to just over $100 about a month ago : https://invst.ly/ycmt0 with Shel comfortably on 2200, so there's nothing logical about today's fall - triggered mainly by the FED news, I suppose.

Oil back to where it was a fortnight ago: https://invst.ly/ycmi8
Shel back to where it was about six weeks ago:
https://invst.ly/ycmj2
OP has cooled but is hardly in retreat.