Member Info for Boyobach

I think Russia will supply just enough gas to earn almost equivalent cash to normal (not so hard at a premium) but not enough to allow the inventory to build to a sustainable level - he'll keep Europe on the hook whilst maximising earnings. Remember, the utilities usually have some gas left at the end of the winter and build back up for the following one during the summer - they'll struggle this coming winter but the next one could be tougher still.

Just picking-up on Seav’s point about the divi - obviously something I do tend to bang-on about - the reason I often compare Shel with CVX is their close long-term tracking prior to Shel’s Divi cut and the fairly constant gap between them since then. So that, if I rebase CVX to the same price scale as Shel, it’s very easy to see where Shel could have been today if the divi policy had been maintained:

https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_2f8e6f1a370ab56aed95cf34f08774f9.png

Jim: The big jump in OXY started on Feb 25th. The date of this Houston Chronicle article (extract):
Occidental reports rebounding profits after $15.7 billion loss in 2020
Occidental Petroleum reported rebounding profits Friday as the economy recovers from the pandemic….The Houston energy company reported a $1.3 billion profit in the last three months of the year, compared to a $1.3 billion loss during the same period in 2020, when the pandemic suppressed demand for its products. Revenues more than doubled to $8 billion from $3.3 billion in the last quarter of 2020.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Occidental-reports-rebounding-profits-16946975.php

On Divi I'm with Seav - let's not forget this would be a dividend recovery to 'normal levels' rather than a rise!
There may be justification for a windfall tax when the company burns cash rather than investing in green transition BUT was there a 'catastrophe tax rebate' in 2020 when OP tanked?

Meanwhile, I wonder if Shel is now more compelling than OXY (Forbes article):
Is Warren Buffett’s Favorite Stock Overbought? Occidental Petroleum Gets Downgrade From Analysts

Goldman downgraded shares of Occidental Petroleum on Monday from a “buy” rating to “neutral,” assigning the stock a $70 price target—implying roughly 15% upside from current levels.
“While we continue to see an attractive free cash flow outlook,” Occidental Petroleum’s valuation looks less attractive, especially relative to other energy companies and after the stock’s massive runup, says Goldman analyst Neil Mehta…After Occidental’s “outperformance relative to peers,” other energy stocks are starting to have more compelling valuations, he writes, pointing to the likes of ConocoPhillips, which has underperformed with only a 16% gain this year.
Other large energy companies such as Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, Hess and Pioneer Natural Resources all have far more upside—of about 40%, based on Goldman’s price target estimates—than Occidental, Mehta argues.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2022/07/11/is-warren-buffetts-favorite-stock-overbought-occidental-petroleum-gets-downgrade-from-analysts/?sh=111fd46523de

And if they must 'distribute the cash then I want my fair share of it - which I don't get when it's a buyback (lot's of words and flaky arguments are not cash in my pocket)

Hi Jim
I often use CVX as a comparison and sometime XOM but I don't remember using OXY. I've cobbled this together quickly to illustrate what you are talking about: https://invst.ly/yk7yg

Yes Seav. I've not been a fan of the buy-back policy, which essentially only benefits shareholders who sell.
Meanwhile, I guess this morning’s 2017.5 low could be sufficient to fill the inconvenient gap that appeared yesterday (it does technically leave 5.5p to be filled, which is small beer at an sp of over 2000). Shel remains relatively weak in relation to performance against OP over the last eight months:
https://invst.ly/yk1wb

Barrie - FWIW, I do agree with SlawsOG and others here in terms of the long term - especially in view of the dividend yield. Selling and holding cash during this inflationary period is not attractive unless you have good reason to believe that Shel is overvalued at the current price or that the Q2 results, in less than a fortnight, will contain a nasty surprise. I really do not think they will. Yes, the drop back from £24+ is disappointing - it presented a profit opportunity that may have been missed- but this is a long ride we are on.
Very good 'Hellinicshipping' link from Getafgrip regarding Chevron - worth a read.

If you use twitter then I’d recommend following Javier Blas (of Bloomberg). His recent comments regarding the Biden-MBS meeting and also the German utility Uniper are worth noting. Here is a snippet on Uniper - note the !!!:
European gas prices have paused their rally as Uniper starts to draw from storage (in the middle of July!!!), rather than buy more on the spot at sky-high prices. But that's a **temporary and really desperate measure** as the Germany utility tries to conserve cash.

Allegedly, Uniper is at risk of insolvency within days.

We all know that Brent has risen to much higher levels than were typical in 2019 and that Shel has not kept pace with it:
https://invst.ly/yiw0v
This re-based comparison illustrates that the relative strength of Shel’s sp compared to Brent today is roughly 50% of what it was in the summer of 2019, which happens to reflect the reduction in dividend since 2019. The lines are labelled in pence - with Shel on the 2002 and Brent on the 4000 line.

I utterly agree with Notmyjob and Getafgrip's post . Shel of recent times have played a smarter Press and PR job than BP - better value / lower risk in my view. I've doubled up during the current drop but, bearing in mind my net cost per share over two years remains well below £10, I'm not going to worry about dips. Q3 results should, IMV, see upward pressure. GS analysts have been at the wacky baccy, I think, but £25-£27 is a realistic and low-risk prospect and one which the company can demonstrate is not at 'record levels' and, rather than a windfall for investors (who've had the dividend slashed) merely represents a recovery to 2018 levels.

Yes, Chilting - apart from the temporary March and May divergences shown here, OCDO has basically followed AMZN for over three months now:
https://invst.ly/yg5pw
Perhaps we'd be better off without the updates? Ha!

Given that three weeks ago Shel reached 2440 at an OP around $122 (a multiple of 19.9x) we can see that today’s sp reflects both the lower OP and a weakening in Shel’s relationship with it: https://invst.ly/yg5v7

The path that Brent took up to last night’s contract roll-over is now over and investing.com ended the week showing the correct live price, although Wednesday and Thursday’s prices on this daily chart still appear to be ‘September’ rather than ‘August’ contract prices. Nevertheless, the generality is correct and Brent is now into the fifth month of the green upward trend here: https://invst.ly/yg5qq which, lest we forget, rides on top of the underlying blue that started over two years ago: https://invst.ly/yg5sn , with no immediate sign that the latter is levelling off. Sadly, though, an sp of 2400 now looks further away than it did in April.

As it says in the penultimate para: The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. So, technically, many might find it a misleading use of the term.

It's always worth keeping an eye on the EIA weekly report of US inventories:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-crude-stocks-down-fuel-inventories-up-refiners-hit-gas-eia-2022-06-29/
It often drives market prices on a Wednesday (like the API report does to some extent on Tuesdays - they sometimes seem to contradict each other but the EIA tends to be regarded as the main reference)

sorry - the new gap down is from 2174, there was a brief spike there yesterday apparently.

Well that’s the gap to 2132 dealt with but a new one down from 2185 appearing this morning. Meanwhile it’s the last day of the August Brent contract and the difference between it and September’s, which will determine tomorrow’s Brent pricing, has closed to $3 as the two converge, with September currently at almost $113. Shel heading towards 2130 at that rate.

Is 12.5p a small enough gap to ignore now that Shel is £20+?
https://invst.ly/yfm87
It’s starting to niggle as the price hovers nearby.

...in the market:
https://invst.ly/yflwb
Pity OCDO had to slip below the red again! 780 anyone?

Considering that Brent hit $120 mid afternoon and is still near $ 117 (but now falling) the day could have gone better: https://www.theice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures/data?marketId=5166938
Interesting that the pull back started whilst OP was still rising. Maybe a case of OP following Shel (the market)
https://invst.ly/yflxs

Fair enough. If you do use ICE to watch the OP, be aware that it doesn't update - you have to refresh the page manually.