Member Info for Boyobach

Yes Pernix. With the pull back of the last five trading days, my attention turns from recent short term upward trends to the longer term green trend here: https://invst.ly/yc75d
It has been progressively lifting Shel for the last seven months and I think a drop below it would be a significant indicator. Shel’s underlying sensitivity to OP might suddenly become more apparent if the tightness of supplies starts to ease.

I think you are right about the shorts Chilting. There's a rhythm to the music being played here - which can usefully be exploited by those who have time to watch it closely. I'll check out WTB - thanks.

Well, as I hoped, the pattern did not repeat as previously and the turning point even happened a bit sooner than I expected (I expected it nearer the green bottom trend). This is good because OCDO did not get driven back down to test 700 again and may even have another attempt at breaking free of the red. https://invst.ly/yc68a
Would be great to see 920 again - which is now above the red - soon.

Maybe - Let's see what happens in the 700-765 range, SFH:
15 minute view: https://invst.ly/yb-k6
It might turn out differently. No guarantees though!

https://invst.ly/ybyse

With the US markets just open for today, I thought I’d post a chart showing how Chevron, Exxon, BP and Shell have compared with each other and Brent during the current year: https://invst.ly/ybyk0
Unsurprisingly, BP is lagging due to the hit it took over Russian business. Shell has kept pace with my usual benchmark, Chevron, whilst Exxon outperformed them all - doing about twice as well as BP - but bear in mind that it has needed to in order to catch up with Chevron after a dismal performance during 2020. All have seen a pull-back in the last four trading days whilst Brent has marched on. BP and Shel still lag their US cousins over the long term from 2019 - apparently due to the dividend issue, which share buybacks do not seem to have effectively balanced out in terms of investor value.

CWR compared to CELS index over recent period:
https://invst.ly/ybuow
That blue line at the bottom is a long-term marker - here it is in context:
https://invst.ly/ybure
530 represents ‘half price’ in relation to the cash raise of March 2021.

Yes Barrie, it’s interesting to note how Shel has slipped in relation to OP recently. A month ago Shel’s sp was around today’s value with Brent at about $114. Bearing in mind that Shel‘s sp has been geared to about 20p per $1 change in Brent, it implies that Shel is about £1.80 below par at present. https://invst.ly/ybubf
I have re-acquired shares I sold at near £24.50 during yesterday's lows.

Seav: XOM was slipping compared to the others prior to covid, I recall that there were concerns about its debt levels.This 2019 article touches upon it but dyor:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/08/26/why-debt-is-a-bigger-problem-for-exxonmobil-than-i.aspx.
However, it has managed to address these concerns thanks to the OP recovery. There were similar concerns about Shel, of course, plus the UK/European companies appear to be (rightly in my view) under more pressure in relation to tackling green transition. The US companies did not cut their dividend - which is probably the biggest factor. Looking at a comparison from mid 2019 onwards, https://invst.ly/ybfbq
it’s plain that Chevron has been the ‘gold standard’ in terms of sp and the UK companies remain at the bottom of the pile thanks largely, IMV, to their dividend policy.

Thursday poured some cold water on any warm fuzzy feelings generated by Shel clipping 2450 - which does have a bit of history of resistance if you go back to 2014 (before OP fell below $100). But Shel has not been doing quite as well as BP or XOM over the last two weeks: https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_2995a7ea4e241462c803d92f840998fc.png

It’s still too high to be an attractive top-up for me - I’d want to see it drop to the blue or green dash lines here: https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_edbfa09fe4ffcef1303392395585f642.png

Consensus (see below) doesn’t seem to be pointing to any sustained drop in energy prices, so I do expect to see Shel back on track for 2500+

Quotes from an OilPrice article (link below)
Crude oil prices moved lower {Wednesday] after the Energy Information Administration reported a crude oil inventory build of 2 million barrels for the week to June 3. This compared with a draw of 1.5 million barrels for the previous week, leaving inventories at 416.8 million barrels, which was some 15 percent below the five-year average for this time of the year……The situation may still be a long way from resolution, however, with the upside potential in oil prices remaining substantial. The reason is that, according to some analysts, among them Goldman Sachs’ Damien Courvalin, the current oil shortage is a structural rather than a cyclical one.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Prices-Slip-On-Small-Crude-Build.html

OCDO held up well in the face of yesterday’s market drop, which took a couple of tech stocks I hold down by significant percentages. Unfortunately, it did wipe out the only current uptrend but has held level on the 910 support. It still hasn’t escaped the red downtrend though - next week should provide an answer one way or the other: https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_ca7d5267ea11edc814de5f0313ef10ea.png
The classic inverted 'head and shoulders' is developing nicely - which could mark a happy turnaround from this year's slide.

Something of a double whammy for ITM today - a T&O statement that didn’t go down well and a downturn in the general market - all of which translated to a significant fall here in CWR. A good ‘buy-back’ day for me, however, replacing the tranche I sold off about a month ago. Here’s a chart showing how ITM has moved in comparison to CWR this year (falling about 50% more today):
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_b274cc490fc6c34f74aed08e0f7cfd5c.png

Yes indeed Chilting, ITM taking a bit of a hit this morning. Could be a grim few days over there - with a potential knock on effect here.

Shel has begun a new ‘green’ upward trend, which is slightly steeper than the one it abandoned at the end of May: https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_cba7d93318c83a0e0ad1a43a4933c449.png
And it is now challenging the red trend that has kept a lid on it recently.
Beyond 2400 you’d have to go back three years to find traces of resistance and there’s also a 70p gap to 2596 for ‘B’ Shares (Shel charts use A shares historically which is not correct and slightly misleading IMV)
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_02b70578a3170d486a3bfde700dd5fbb.png
FWIW: As long as we are on a rising trend and the indications are positive I’m holding on to my remaining tranches - but I’ve already taken substantial profits along the way. I would consider setting a stop-loss if I was keen to lock in at a certain level but I’m inclined to play this out - after all, capital gain is the only way a shareholder benefits from buybacks and the divi is relatively poor at this sp (all IMO and NOT advice!)

Hi Newdealz: I think Chilting has answered your query - it was he who alerted us to Euroclear which only provides a monthly update but does apparently cover 'all' shorts.
I ordinarily check out https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B3MBS747/ but that no longer tracks individual disclosures after they drop below 0.5%. Euroclear gives an average number for the whole month - so, yes, shorts couldhave reduced sharply at the end of the month making the figure deceptively high compared to the actuality on the last day. Meanwhile, the roller coaster sp has climbed rather than fallen during the levelling-out of the last 5 days of trading and is still having a go at breaking the red trend: https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_2b75f1dfa26c08e7b0417c4c3b660d1b.png

That stock on loan increase in May (per Chilting's post) is not good. I had expected to see a reduction following the quite sharp recovery from 700.

After a rather indecisive session today, I agree with both Chilting and Valueplay. The short-term rising trend (first green) has ended and the current one is relatively flat. Are we at the bottom of the next stage or at the top prior to a pull-back? My guess would be the latter: https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_b520dbcbb16574acaa59ee86a3b21b7f.png
The sp has not broken free of the red downward trend and the EMA does not look set to give a decisive crossing.

Yes - all - I think we are agreed that OCDO is at a decision point. But even if it fails at this attempt I'm hopeful that it won't pull back below 830.
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_7b11ea19ef1af0f8558c90de8b020f18.png

... and Shel v Brent, along with BP, XOM and CVX went as expected today. No nasty surprises:

https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_41c4e58ba461278ce75fd6621fae1d75.png

The omens are good for OCDO today: resuming the green trend from the 25th May and potentially breaking completely free from the red downward trend that has dominated since November:
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_bbd3e5c84786cffe0b9031d8cc560faf.png
For those who like to use EMA crossings as an indicator, it’s converging towards a crossover - but always bearing in mind that reversals can catch any indicator out - as happened last April (circled).
I wonder what Newdealz has decided to do. It so happens I acquired a tranche rather prematurely on the way down which is now back in the black, so I'm happy to see how this plays out.