Member Info for Boyobach

Bimmer’s decision to sell at 2240 might well prove to be a good one. 2240 is the next significant resistance level down from 2450 and, unless the current ‘green’ trend continues, a drop back would be a reasonable expectation:
https://invst.ly/yqsll
Today’s price moves show that 2240 was tested but there were no takers above it and it dropped back 25p suggesting downward pressure at that level. There’s also that gap down to 2070 which is a tempting trading prospect if there’s a significant pull back. But the longer term prospects (blue trends) still look good.

I agree Barrie.
As I'm sure you know, I'm no fan of buybacks - my comment was intended to forestall any credit for this month's rise being given to them. It's not unusual for Shel's ratio to OP to improve as OP falls, after all Shel was at this sp when Brent was just $65 in early 2020 - so the tracking ratio has been very elastic over a long period.

Well done Bimmer! ATB!

OP has been on a falling trend since 8th June and this had been reflected in Shel’s sp until the beginning of this month, when Shel has noticeably begun to strengthen:
https://invst.ly/yqmgw
Some might argue that today’s firmness of sp is due to buybacks, although it should be noted that buybacks only paused for three weeks in July and their absence didn’t have an obvious effect on the sp and its relationship with Brent.

Char: you see - ex div wasn't so bad was it?

Yes Jim :-)
Basic stuff, I know. But how many of us have done it at some time or other. My early days with Genel still haunt me.

Char: imo theres no such thing as a day/week trader. sooner or later your stuck in. ...
Smart and pro traders set limits to prevent significant losses when an sp moves the wrong way . Most amateurs like us will let the price move too far the wrong way and many will 'average down' without calculating the risk/benefit properly - both of these can seriously damage your wealth.

Looking at the way Shel’s sp averages out OP volatility, today’s sp isn’t too bad:
https://invst.ly/yp64v
In fact, it could be a lot worse.
Yes Charlie, you’ve possibly missed the boat for a while if you were planning to exit or sell at the top (2450?) but don’t be too dismal about it. Ex div is only worth 21 p isn't it? Peanuts really in terms of the sp.
Much as I disapprove of Big Oil’s obsession with buybacks and would prefer either a special dividend, dividend improvement or targeted investment, I see the current trading range as an opportunity - albeit one that demands some effort. And you, I know, are not entirely a ‘sit on your hands’ kinda guy.
The present price range is floating +/- 6% either side of 2060 every couple of months - that’s a much better earner than the divi if you play it right. Will it continue? Well Shel seem determined to keep a lid on the sp, keeping it nominally around 2000+. I think it will stay above the 1930 support unless OP ducks below $80 and cycle up to around 2200 unless things change . I’m not looking for 2400+ for now, and am switching tactics to max out on a potentially regular trading range. Obviously, though, I’m going to protect myself from losing out if it does start to fly!
But DYOR and stay lucky.

Get real guys...
As shareholders we need to get real about media - (aka public )- perceptions. You can argue against them but the smart investor takes account of the way the wind is blowing.
Here’s a clip from a US variety show. It’s worth watching in its entirety (less than 10 minutes) but, at the very least, I’d urge fellow shareholders to watch it from here (which is 4.50 minutes in) for a couple of minutes:
https://youtu.be/Haev-k8ThqM?t=289
You may disagree with the views expressed - it’s a comedy show after all - but this stuff affects our investment in Shel and the lady being interviewed is US Secretary of Energy - which is suddenly very relevant given the surprise Democrat bill supported by Joe Manchin (who usually sides with Republicans but has given Biden the ‘green’ bill he so desperately needed). This is BIG stuff in the US and it’s under-reported here because we are so focussed on the trivial (to date) side show of Truss v Sunak.

1) Increasing the dividend would reduce the cash available for buybacks.
2) Increasing the dividend would push the sp up and further reduce the potential number of shares bought back.
3) Increasing the dividend does not boost the nice EPS metric.
4) Lack of dividend will force income investors to sell their shares (to us) to make up the difference
3) Oh! I get it! - increasing the divi is NOT what we want to do at all! especially when we want to buy (their) shares at these 'undervalued prices', which we caused in the first place when we slashed it after decades. AND we can make out like we are benefitting the suckers because it is a 'distribution'. Wow! they'll never figure all that out - would probably vote for it. Ha!

Nightpusher: I’ve done my best to answer but am not qualified in this, and invite corrections from anyone who spots any schoolboy blunders:

My understanding is that ICE (London) is the main global reference for Brent. The product spec is here: https://www.theice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures
I believe that each ‘day’s closing price’ is defined at settlement time, 20.30 GMT each weekday evening, even though trading actually continues (in contracts that haven’t expired) until 23.00 GMT and resumes at 01.00GMT on the next trading day (with Monday following Friday).

The futures contract for September (the ‘old’ front month) would have expired, along with trading in it, at the end of settlement time - 20.30 GMT on Friday evening (the last trading day for July) and I believe the price closed at $110. That chart has now been deleted from the ICE site - so I can’t verify it but it’s the price used by Investing.com as the closing price for that day.

The fact it expired on a Friday did leave more scope than usual for confusion because, over the weekend, the October contract price from Friday was effectively ‘live’ (though not a closing price) and arguably valid as the new front month, whilst Friday’s ‘closing price’ still reflected the end of the September contract. In less volatile times they would converge more, with the expiring month moving more rapidly to eventually match the spot price - but the large step in price at roll-over is becoming something of a norm, as highlighted here:
https://invst.ly/ynr0j

The monthly roll-over in Brent this weekend led to a $7 drop to $103 from Friday, lets see if the price picks up from here:
https://invst.ly/ynid5
(investing,com daily price chart for Brent is now looking correct again)

.....but don't forget that gap at 2070!
Today, Brent was back up to $110/bbl (ICE). I can't provide a suitable chart because Investing.com has been showing the wrong front month price for Brent for the last couple of weeks. Suffice to say, Brent ain’t going down at the moment.
So, Shel is looking good for a continued increase, especially if you are a fan of EMA crossovers (bearing in mind that this is a lagging indicator - so maybe you should’ve bought already). https://invst.ly/yn9aa
I’m really cool about selling yesterday because 1) it is never wrong to take a profit and 2) I have increased my LT stake in Shell since the end of March. My net cost per share (the cost after subtracting trading profits) is currently £2.50 per share. I don’t like the company’s dividend or share buyback policies but I can hardly complain about the capital recovery I’ve experienced since the dark days of 2020.

Mindful of the gap at 2070, I took my profits on a tranche I bought during recent lows. It’s been a good quarter for me and my holding has actually increased by 33% since the end of Q1. Despite my profit taking, and continued disappointment with the dividend policy, I think there’s a fair chance of further upward progress as we head to the next interim.

There’s a good and balanced article on Buybacks here:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-advisors/121415/stock-buybacks-good-thing-or-not.asp
I would personally subscribe to the view attributed to ‘some investors’ in this extract:
According to recent Harvard Business Review research, more than half of corporate profits in the U.S. go toward share buybacks. Some economists and investors argue that using excess cash to buy up their stock in the open market is the opposite of what companies should be doing, which is reinvesting to facilitate growth (as well as job creation and capacity).
GLA

LTInvestor: ‘all per share metrics are affected by a return to shareholders by way of a share buyback’
Metrics are no good unless they have a quantifiable value.
Can I use the per share cash distributed to me by a dividend? Yes
Do I know what that divi distribution is worth per share? Yes
Can I use the per share cash distributed to me by a buyback? Only if I sell the share.
Do I know what the buyback is worth to me per share ? No

‘A board of directors are employed to run the business and to make decisions and put forward proposals/policies as to what to do with profits.’
Yep - doesn’t mean they do a good job.

... are a nuisance aren't they?
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_4a08846a6abca97d1340c5c1c9190662.png

Yep!
I'm not sure why I'm still holding. Unless there's some sign of improvement by Q4 I'll probably exit.

Seav: a good post IMV and I think Gary59 somewhat misunderstood, as I did not take your comments to be anti green transition. It was over-hyped by Shell and I've been deeply disappointed by their lack of vision and transition strategy.
I would point out, though, that BP have also failed to restore their divi - so Shell are not alone in that respect.

Boyobach any thoughts??
I think share buybacks are a total con and don't benefit shareholders unless they sell whilst the company are buying and the price is being supported. To me they indicate a company has no direction and no plans for growth/development. When associated with a disposal they simply represent a shrinking of the company. If the company has excess cash then it belongs to the shareholders and it should be distributed back to them so that they can decide for themselves if they want to expand their stake in the company.

Here’s Shel since it peaked, along with LCO, OXY and CVX, on 8th June:
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_40b39e9a284b4cbc3395ab2a15238dd5.png

On this chart, the Shell price scale roughly matches 19.7xBrent. OXY actually peaked slightly higher a week earlier.