Member Info for Boyobach

Well moniman, when my renewables start to outperform Shel I'll be quids-in! But until then, it's Shel that's supporting my green investments.
Renewable energy still has a lot of issues - inconsistency of supply and not as green as many suppose. Nuclear power will be essential to bridge the gaps

It's not often I get to make £1 per share overnight (including dealing costs) with Shel. Bought back in sharpish this morning:
https://invst.ly/zyltn

PFC is bouncing against its lowest ever support level at, nominally, 70p.
https://invst.ly/zyib6
PFC is a long way off testing any meaningful resistance: 78p would be a first baby step but the more significant 98p will be a tougher challenge.

Today’s sp moves (from 2023 date line) relative to Brent (15’ chart):
https://invst.ly/zyi4x
I was quick to sell my 2260 tranche for 2420 early this morning.
https://invst.ly/zyi6l
Possible buy-back tomorrow, given the gap to be filled and OP falling away.

The last two trading days saw the second PFC breakout from significant falling trends since the price started to tumble in November. Is this one going to be more successful than the first and mark the bottom? https://invst.ly/zwgbb
It hasn’t been as strong a bounce as the first but maybe the price is settling out at a new base level.

Directors don't ordinarily sell or trade their shares until they step down as their transactions are reported and can have an adverse affect on the sp. They are somewhat obliged to show confidence at certain times - eg during a cash raise. So their buys can be more of an attempt to influence sentiment rather than well judged trading decisions, especially if they are coordinated.

It's not back on track yet. The five week downward trend remains unbroken as of this morning and the EMA is a long way off converging towards a ‘buy’: https://invst.ly/zvokp
Regarding the comment ‘The SP could easily be £2-3+ in a year's time’: this has been supposed by many here since the SFO completed their work. The market simply isn'y convinced and neither am I. Over a quid in the next six months? Possibly.
I'd happily take a 30p profit from 60p ish - that's currently the limit of my optimistic expectations and I haven't bought back in yet.

A 15’ chart shows how trading went during today, with the last hour and a half of particular interest: https://invst.ly/zvi82 (note the last candle hitting 64 before the close). Along with hefty director buys, it casts something of a shadow over the normal interpretation of the dragonfly doji that the day’s trading produced:
https://invst.ly/zvih1 (daily ticks)
which would ordinarily hint at the near-term bottom being reached (for those that accept such price indicators).
I’ve been out of PFC since last taking profits at 125p in August and wondering if, given yet another abyss just a year after the 115p capital raise (announcement date marked on the daily chart), whether it’s worth yet another punt after ten years of decline and value destruction for ‘buy and forget’ investors who didn’t manage their holding tightly:
https://invst.ly/zvhts (NB: this is a weekly chart not daily ticks)

Arguable Causes of the decade long decline appear to include:
Oil price: 2014/2015 ?
SFO: 2017/18 ?
SFO/COVID: 2020 ?
Investor over-expectation: 2022 ?
Company Strategy & Management: throughout ?

Over the years, I’ve experienced investment pain and trading gain here but isn’t it finally ‘game over’ now? Anyone looking at the ten year performance would surely hesitate to touch it with a bargepole.

If ‘red’ does prove to be the new ‘blue’ trendwise, then an overshoot to 2200 is on the cards: https://invst.ly/zun84
In terms of support levels, 2200 (ie 2180-2200 last tested back in late September) appears to be the next candidate below 2400, with 2070-21000 the only other historic support above 2000. Santa on the piste rather than rallying perhaps?
I’m sure it’ll all come good in the New Year….GLA!

Something of a plunge in progress:
https://invst.ly/zum8s
I've done quite well out of these over the last couple of months. 320?

It's always interesting when someone posts very negatively on a board with no obvious reason/context that explains their interest in the stock given their observations.

What tax does Shel pay in the US?

After selling some in the 2500 region back in November, I topped back up today when it dipped to 2280, mainly on the basis of the sp hitting the middle blue trend here https://invst.ly/zsfuy and my hunch that a levelling out may be occurring. Trends, even two year + ones, don’t last forever and spotting a potential change of direction is always a speculative challenge. Some will refer to ‘pivot points’ - a subject worth checking out. For me it’s the simple geometry as a track turns, with ‘red’ potentially taking over from the long running ‘blue’ in the chart, possibly as an interim move to a flatter path.
For some this will be rather pessimistic as it implies that Shel is approaching a ceiling rather faster than they may be anticipating - and I’d have to agree that it could turn out to be somewhat premature. Either way, I remain long in Shel and simply try to manage my holding as effectively as possible.

Oil dropped out of its two year price recovery trend (blue) at the beginning of September:
https://invst.ly/zsblk
So it’s not surprising to see Shel’s recovery (blue) start to level out (red):
https://invst.ly/zsbjm
It’s worth noting the lag in sp reaction at both ends of the two year OP trend.
There's a seasonal tendency for OP to drop around Dec-Jan and to pick up in Q1. Clearly, inflationary pressures are also taking their toll at present. A wider view of the sp, which includes Shel's all time high in 2018, puts this in context: https://invst.ly/zsbse

My observation of OP v an Oil Co sp (not just Shel) is that it is variable (because the sp obviously isn’t just influenced by OP) and also elastic, by which I mean that the sp will tend to stick near a resistance or support level until the pressure of a continuing movement in OP forces it through the barrier. My feeling is that this is what we are seeing currently. If OP continues to fall then I’d expect to see Shel eventually break downwards, either restoring the ratio or bringing it to a new ‘normal’.
I do monitor a 30 day moving average of the Shel sp v Brent ratio so I’ve got some idea of the pressure that may be building and, currently it looks relatively high so I’m not inclined to top up at present. However that’s just a personal view, not a recommendation and you should DYOR and make your own judgement.

Although, as I suggested, Shel did drop by 2% this morning, it has proved to be resilient in light of the continuing fall in OP, hitting a low of only 2308 as Brent touched $78 this morning - a ratio of almost 30:1, and which must be about the best since the end of 2019 and a ‘new’ benchmark for me to judge the sp.
15” view of Shel v Brent: https://invst.ly/zrpi7
And here’s another view of Shel v Brent: daily ticks over the last couple of months, see how Shel’s trend has been running opposite to that of Oil since it hit its last low on 21st November: https://invst.ly/zrpk6
How long will this momentum last?

With Shel running a bit hot compared to OP at the close and Brent continuing to fall below $80 as I type this, I’d certainly expect to see Shel to soften tomorrow: (15” view v Brent: https://invst.ly/zrcr0 ) A 2% drop at least, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see it test the blue trend at 2280 as marked here: https://invst.ly/zrd72 , with the obvious possibility of dropping back to 2240. Levels below 2240 might then become of more interest. Oil has now dropped well out of the rising trend of the past 30 months and is back within the ‘normal’ price range that emerged after the 2014 OP crash.
https://invst.ly/zrc-w . However, supply from US shale is rather different now. so I think prospects remain for the return to a stronger price in Q1 after the seasonal drop often seen late December /early January.

An excellent post by getafgrip. IMO, which explains likely reasons for the strong Shel v OP relationship.
As many here will know, the ratio of Shel (p) to OP ($) was close to 40:1 at times in 2019 - much higher than today’s 28:1 .
So, whilst today’s figure is a post-2019 record high I think there is room for the sp to advance further, especially if the dividend continues to strengthen towards pre 2020 levels. This chart shows Shel v OP at a near 35:1 ratio - typical at the end of 2019 - which would place the sp near to £30 at today’s OP: https://invst.ly/zozsc

Shel’s sp and Brent are going in opposite directions today:
https://invst.ly/zon7t
And it isn’t a new thing:
https://invst.ly/zon9t

Good points by Jim
Shel is kinda tracking Brent but actually strengthening at the same time, as this 15' view of price movements shows:
https://invst.ly/znjhc with the shel 'lows' following a more steeply rising trend than OP (green) over the last couple of days. In fact, over the last three months Shel has been significantly outpacing Brent: https://invst.ly/znjv8
Oil was over $110 when the sp was at this level in June!
It's been good for trading this month and if OP regains $90 then there maybe more in store.