Member Info for Boyobach

After the steep drop from 517, it was interesting to see the significant volume after time (16.30) on Friday - which includes the auction, of course. If the data on Investing.com is correct then it amounted to about 60% of the day’s total:
https://invst.ly/-97nn
(15’ view with volume bottom of screen)
Also note the lowest blue trend line - it could prove significant that buyers came out as that was hit and then piling in at the close
Here’s a wider ‘daily’ view which attempts to put that last comment in context:
https://invst.ly/-97n3
It does raise the prospect of a bottom forming around 460 rather than the more obvious continuation downwards towards 400.
Monday could be entertaining from the off .

Fair comment Chilting. The JV is an obvious speculative trigger for the market. Following the rally, partly fuelled by the unrelated BNP acquisition a week ago, it appears that the sp is now easing back into ‘wait and see’ mode. It’s a volatile tinderbox of a share.

Thanks SavvyInvestor - I'm just curious to know more about the Shandong field trials.
PhatStyle : I guess you responded because I got a 'filtered' flag - thanks anyway.

Yes indeed Chilting.
500 was always likely to present resistance and it has turned out to be significant.
https://invst.ly/-8n9l
The upward momentum seems to have been exhausted today so lets hope that 470 provides support to limit the pullback. I'm also hoping that over-reliance on the JV doesn't backfire if it fails to materialise. I seem to recall that the bus field trials didn't produce a knock-out result - I'm thinking that maybe disappointment there has caused the JV delay? What's your take on that?

Anyway, today's 'breakout' didn't last - https://invst.ly/-85db
Maybe everyone's moved over to BP?
Did you do the unthinkable Neversell ?

Interesting view Terry.

But there's already been talk of both Shel and BP being broken up hasn't there? Wouldn't it magnify the issues rather than simplify them? Also - I'm reminded that Shel didn't fare too well as it absorbed BG .

Investors have obviously been more impressed with BP of recent times, with a recovery from the drop experienced after they lost value in Russian assets last year. But their results announcement has had a massive impact:
https://invst.ly/-850a
Taken at face value, Shel appears to be £3-£4 down in comparison, which invites an explanation that I can't immediately provide. Anyone else got something?

The last hour was very disappointing given the decent breakout this morning. Ideally the sp needs to open near or above 490 tomorrow and close well above 500 to sustain the move: https://invst.ly/-84lu

Wow Barrie, I had to do a comparison chart to check - that looks equivalent to about 2580 on the Shel sp scale:
https://invst.ly/-7pm1

My last post in this thread was a response to one by Phatstyle which seems to have since been removed.

Dear Phat - what I suggested has happened - the price hit resistance and dropped back. I have said that from here it may well attack 500 again from the current base of around 470. We will all be laughing if/when it hits £10.

'Clueless' describes people who don't look for clues and also ramp or deramp a stock based on their own wild hunches.

Most who post - have an agenda. Yours appears to be the centre of attention in order to influence the gullible. However, the price will move as the market dictates, irrespective of what people here say and useful debate isn't helped by personal name calling and childish rants. You didn't answer my question about the e-mail you received in October about the JV, by the way. Was it just fiction?

The trade you mentioned (separate thread) looks interesting , it certainly bumped up the volume and was above the ask price (but below 500) so would ordinarily classify as a buy. Let's hope it triggers a bounce.

re: ......fingers crossed I don’t see them at £26 by Friday !....
Wouldn't £26 be good for another sixth Barrie?
Maybe another two sixths - making your average sale price for the lot near £25.50, with the fair prospect of a pull back at some point.

Without much help from Brent, Shel is back at 2450 as I write, and has broken above the short-term trend of the last week or so:
https://invst.ly/-7ke5
I guess that those of us who, like me, sold a small tranche during the last few days may now have their eyes on a much higher target.

It seems only clueless people like me thought that 500 might present some resistance. Hopefully the pullback will be brief and the sp will not drop too far and find support above 470. Optimistic chart people will be looking for a ‘cup and handle’ type pattern leading to a breakout - it’s much too early for me to express a view on that.
https://invst.ly/-7iwy

Ok Phatstyle, but I’m just recalling that on October 27th you posted this:

‘JV signatures confirmed:
Just had an email to confirm JV’s signatures will be in q4, so once it lands this share will rocket’

Who was that e-mail from?

If, as you’ve said, it’s been over a year since HoT’s then it hasn’t been a priority for Bosch & Weichai. So it presents a risk both ways and some would argue that the longer it takes the less likely it becomes.

Completion of the JV agreement would be a significant step but let’s hope CWR’s future isn’t as dependent upon it as is being suggested

Ha! OK Mr P.

I’ll try but I guess one man’s sentence is another man’s paragraph and may not even need a verb. Regards.

Beware of creating JV noise and hype PhatStyle - unless you are trading.

Phil (Caldwell) is apparently not directly involved in getting the deal done because, according to the latest RNS, the remaining issues are only between Bosch and Weichai.

I doubt that either of those companies would have shared time sensitive information with BNP Paribas.

Although sentiment undoubtedly improved sharply following the TU on 24th Jan, news relating to timing of the JV announcement has not materially changed since November and we have no idea when it might happen.

Patience is needed - It’s better for the sp to recover steadily (except for those trading the volatility, of course).

From November 17th RNS:
All parties remain committed to the deal, the structure of which has been agreed. There are several commercial items remaining which require more time to be finalised between the partners.

From January 24th RNS:
The structure of the China joint ventures has been agreed. We now await the resolution of a number of commercial points that are being finalised between Bosch and Weichai.

As I understand it, the UT price reflects the price paid by participants in the closing auction, an event during which the highest bids and lowest asks are matched around a mid price which is then applied to all the qualifying transactions. For every sell there is a buy, the ‘sell’ classification in relation to a UT is meaningless as far as I can see. The opening and closing auctions are separate to the live market conducted during the day, so they are not directly related to it other than in setting the day's opening and closing prices. The fact that Friday’s closing auction produced a price above that of the day’s market indicates to me that sellers correctly anticipated that demand would be sufficient for them to get a better price via the auction. But DYOR.

I agree Neversell. I happened to check the price as it was rising towards today's top and decided to sell a few. I always keep in mind the possibility that it will continue upwards - so my second 'sell' would be less reactive and more clinical. ATB.

I just chip in with fairly banal stuff Timmo - trying to make a buck like everyone else here.
There are no magic formulae but I do find basic trends (daily tick to assess overall direction, and 15 minute tick to confirm direction and refine timing) together with support and resistance levels, can give a reasonable feel for an sp’s likely direction, provide timely warnings of a change in direction and, in so doing, tilt the odds more in your favour. Unless it is simply optimising a price ‘on the day’, I have learned to never ‘average down'. Buying at a lower price as an sp slides usually adds to the risks and potential losses.

I’m long in Shel with a core holding from which I’ll sell a percentage when I feel it’s near a peak in the cycle and there’s a good chance of buying back at least £1 per share cheaper on the swing down. If the price unexpectedly continues upwards then I’ll consider selling another tranche if the price reaches the very top end of my chart-based expectations - but that is very rare. Timing is tricky - and I’ve learned not to stress when I mistime a trade. With Shel the cycle peaks and troughs are usually about £2 apart (indicated by the red trend lines here: https://invst.ly/-6vgg ) It’s not foolproof and it still requires elements of luck and timing. Like most people here, I missed yesterday’s sudden swing - but I don’t sit glued to a screen all day. ATB