Member Info for Boyobach

Cheers, Getafpint and Nomad. I think we are all happy to have got back in.

It was quite a bounce today, BP was similar as was Brent, with Oil running a little ahead and leading the way during the morning - here’s the sp today against Brent:
https://invst.ly/-d3c2
So it wasn’t just Shel and it didn’t actually break out of this week’s downtrend either:
https://invst.ly/-d3n8
Where does that leave the pullback? Is it over? I'm not counting chickens but, unless it resumes soon, Shel would appear to have added at least £1 to the sp range since early January thanks largely, I'd say, to the results statement. ATB

In the end I bought back that last tranche at 2444 - deciding to lock-in the trading gain I've made over the ex-div period.
I agree that the market could be re-rating the sp, so I'm trying to steer a prudent course even though the chart still shows it in a downward trend and OP is also down tonight: https://invst.ly/-cpzv (15' trading view with Brent comparison)
I have another tranche outstanding which is more optional - I'll only buy if the price seems much more attractive and 2375 is about top whack in that context. ATB

Yes Nomad.
At the moment I would gain 4x the dividend in cash if I re-buy the tranche I sold a week ago. I didn't sell out entirely - always play cautious with Shel. I'll be interested to see what happens this afternoon.

I'm not rushing to top back up at this stage as I think it's still high relative to OP. My target is around 2375
https://invst.ly/-cbbc

Getagrip: I think your Ex-Dividend discount of 23p should be nearer 24p based on the 28.75 cents dividend.

Yes - hopefully so. I think the actual rate will be announced on March 13?

Well the anticipated pull-back appeared to get started today, with a drop equivalent to 2x the dividend - so the question then becomes how far might it go and at what pace? Has the market revalued Shel in light of the results or is it likely to fall back to recent lows before returning to 2588? https://invst.ly/-bavp
Interesting times for those of us seeking to reacquire.

I have to say that, given that the notional ex-div discount of 23p would have been factored into the opening auction, the overall rise in sp today was better than I expected.
I know that OP moved up sharply overnight and it was presumably why the opening price was only 7p off the previous night’s close ( https://invst.ly/-axz- ) but, from that point onwards, OP was sagging whilst Shel continued to gain ground. Expectations will be that, as the ex-div discount unwinds over the next few weeks, the price will slowly absorb around 16p of any downward move.
So, I’m not sure exactly what I’m wishing for next: a pull back to re-acquire (which wasn't signalled today) or a continued march to 2600 and beyond. I guess it’s a happy position to be in - but well done to those that held AND earned the divi today!

Doh! .... If it continues up to £30 then that's 16% bonus on the remainder of our holding.

I don't think we can go wrong Nomad/Armani. If it continues up to £30 then that's 20% bonus on the remainder of our holding. If it drops back just £1 then that's 4x the dividend (assuming we re-buy). As Littleaston said, a profit has to be locked at some point. Because Shel has pursued buy-backs rather than dividends as the prime means of 'shareholder distribution' we ultimately don't have much choice because, even if you are looking for income, the main benefit has to be realised through capital gain. ATB

With a gap down at the start this morning, CWR eventually dropped off the trend (blue) that had lifted it up by £1 from December’s 340-400 trading range: https://invst.ly/-aenw
It never did consolidate above 500 but will hopefully be more successful at the next serious attempt.
A 15' trading view shows today’s damage rather more clearly: https://invst.ly/-aepn
Shorting action possibly? If so, expect the usual wash, rinse, repeat routine. Cash to be made, possibly, despite the setback.

Yes indeed Larry & NSS. The div adjustment on ex-div day is a drop in the ocean compared to the sp itself. Last August the sp, which was mid rally, continued to rise. I'll be watching this pm when the US market opens in case there's an early pull back. Best of luck.

I agree with Getafgrip and LittleAston’s comments.
As the sp came within 4p of my suggested target of 2575 it won’t be surprising to learn that I sold a few today. https://invst.ly/-9yyq - not that i actually got 2571p !
Apart from the chart, I was also influenced by the sp:Brent ratio which, at 30x, is near the maximum (30.3x) I’ve logged in over a year. Based on the 30 day moving average of sp:Brent, the sp is about 120p above what I might ordinarily expect. So I think a fair bit of steam will be needed to sustain this level. The counter argument, of course, is to look at BP in comparison over recent times: https://invst.ly/-9z46 but, as I’ve said before, BP did have some lost ground to make up after the setback that occurred concerning Russian assets a year ago.
Both BP and Shel appeared to be levelling off this afternoon, whilst Brent was drifting a bit lower
https://invst.ly/-9z8r
GLA

Still struggling to hold it's support boyo:
Indeed Stupmy, so far support is holding but mind the gap from 530 down to 484 (circled). https://invst.ly/-9ytl That’s the first threat if this level doesn’t hold.

Yes Chilting. This is an extract from the article:

Between 2pc and 5pc of the fuel flowing through the country's transmission network will be hydrogen in two years under plans drawn up by National Gas, which owns the pipelines.
The blending would be the first step in plans to convert the network so that it can be filled entirely with hydrogen by 2050, as part of a national overhaul to cut carbon emissions.
Jon Butterworth, chief executive of National Gas, said: “What we’re trying to achieve is to make sure there’s a balanced response to energy.
“On a winter’s day, you’ve got seven times more energy going through the gas network than the electricity network.

The sharp reversal on Friday afternoon left the ‘up or down?’ question hanging over the weekend but the first two hours of trading this morning thankfully set the scene for the remainder of the day:
https://invst.ly/-9n0m (15 min ‘trading’ chart).
Hopefully (but not guaranteed) 460 marks a new ‘bottom’. I sold a trading tranche on Friday when it appeared to be heading for 420 but I was back in pretty sharpish this morning with a massive profit of £1.91 after expenses. You can't win 'em all.

Nuclear + Wind +Solar+ Tidal is an obvious long-term optimised combination for minimal carbon UK Power generation.

You guys are all echoing my thoughts concerning OP and the long term prospects for the sp.
I doubt that I would bail entirely on a high this coming week. I'm more likely to sell off a trading tranche. Bearing in mind that the divi is worth about 23.31p per share, the high would need to stand out (2575 maybe) and the prospects of an eventual pull-back would need to look inevitable. https://invst.ly/-9bma
GLA.

Oil price has been in a downward trend since last June and is poised to break upwards from it in the next 24 hours. Breakout by the end of March is essential if OP is to remain above the $78 support level and not drop into the $65+ trading range. https://invst.ly/-9a2g
Failure to break will obviously mean that it is dropping back which could blunt any further gains in sp. ICE resumes trading well ahead of the LSE at 1am .

Seeing the header, but not the filtered post, my first thought was that I must ask ChatGPT to tell me what ChatGBT is.

Good point from Chilting.
I think OCDO was lucky the market closed. Both volume and price apparently surged after that (price touched 700 according to after hours trades listed on this site) . So, unlikely as it would seem from looking at the chart, I guess it may defy the force of gravity that was drawing it to 617 on Monday.
https://invst.ly/-97sd